As November comes to a close, the thermal coal market continues to play a game between high inventories and peak winter expectations. The closing price of Q5500 in North Port was 940 yuan (-7 yuan), which caused an uproar in the market. From another point of view, affected by the recent coal mine accidents, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and other major coal producing areas are undergoing large-scale inspections of pit head coal mines, which may cause certain restrictions on the world. The demand side is suppressed by high inventory, and a small amount of rigid demand is mainly purchased, which makes it difficult to get rid of the situation of weak supply and demand.
In this context, it will be interesting to see whether the magnitude and duration of temperature drops, especially in the southeast coastal areas, will have a greater impact on the coal market in the future. In addition, according to the calculation of the annual long-term agreement related index, it is expected that the long-term agreement price of thermal coal in December will be 710 yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 3 yuan, which provides some reference points for the market.
In terms of coking coal, the supply side is affected by the tightening of safety supervision and the imminent completion of the task at the end of the year, and it continues to be tight, and the main coking coal (Shanxi) in Jingtang Port is 2630 yuan ton (+0 yuan). At the same time, the second round of downstream coke increases have been fully implemented, and individual coke enterprises in Inner Mongolia have raised their profits by 100 yuan in the third round, and the profits of coke enterprises have recovered, the output of hot metal is still at a high level, the supply and demand are tight, and coking coal is strong. Overseas, the import cost of Australian coking coal is about 149 yuan higher than that of domestic coal, which also brings new variables to the market.