Exports, investment and consumption used to be important engines for China's rapid economic growth. After more than 30 years of development, China's economy has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality growth.With the changes in the internal and external environment in recent years, among the three main driving forces mentioned above,The uncertainty of external exports has increased, and there are also problems such as diminishing marginal returns on investment, and the role of consumption in driving economic growth has become more prominent. Digital inclusive finance is widely used in financial service scenarios, with the characteristics of low cost and wide coverage, which overcomes the shortcomings of traditional financial services such as high threshold and low efficiency, and helps to lead consumption and release consumption vitality. It is of great significance to study the impact of digital inclusive finance on residents' consumption expenditure and consumption structure to smooth the domestic economic cycle and promote the transformation and upgrading of consumption structure.
This article ** The impact of digital financial inclusion on household consumption expenditure and structure. Firstly, from the theoretical aspect, the concepts of the two are described, the theories about inclusive finance and consumption are discussed, the influence of the two is expounded, and the current situation of digital inclusive finance and household consumption is sorted out, so as to lay a theoretical foundation for the next research
Secondly, from the empirical aspect, the digital inclusive finance index and CFPS household micro data of Peking University were selected, and the samples used were selected to be cleaned, and the two-way fixed-effect model was used to test the impact of digital inclusive finance on residents' consumption expenditure and structure, and the heterogeneity and transmission pathways were also empirically tested.
Research shows that first,Digital inclusive finance has increased household consumption expenditure and played a role in optimizing the consumption structure；Second, the results of heterogeneity analysis show that the positive impact of the development of digital inclusive finance on household consumption expenditure in urban areas, low consumption levels and high household debt-to-income ratios is more significant
Third, from the perspective of transmission pathways, the development of digital inclusive finance can significantly increase household income, increase the frequency of online payments, and reduce uncertainty, thereby promoting the increase of household consumption expenditure. However, the transmission path of credit constraints is not obvious. Finally, based on the empirical results, this paper puts forward policy suggestions on how to vigorously develop digital inclusive finance, improve residents' consumption level, and promote high-quality economic development.
In the context of China's economic transformation and upgrading, investment, exports, and consumption play a key role in promoting economic growth. However, with the changes in the external environment of China's economic operationIt has had a great impact on the world economy and foreign trade, and the uncertainty of external exports has increased.
In addition, from the perspective of the internal environment, China's economic volume and structure have also undergone fundamental changes, there are problems such as diminishing marginal returns to capital, can not completely rely on investment to promote economic development, investment-export internal and external circulation model has been difficult to sustain, so through the "internal circulation" to stimulate consumption, expand domestic demand, promote the circulation of capital chain, to achieve independent economic operation, so that the basic role of consumption in the economy is more prominent.
In August 2020, the general secretary proposed the "dual circulation" pattern, emphasizing the balance between demand and demandHowever, for the demand side, although China's household consumption rate has gradually increased, it is still low compared with the world's average consumption level.
In 2021, the contribution rate of China's final consumption expenditure to the economy was 654%, driving GDP growth by 53 percentage points, China's consumption rate from 2011 to 2020 averaged 539%, which shows that in recent years, even under the impact of the new crown epidemic, consumption has remained a stabilizer of economic development.
Although China's consumption level has increased steadily, it has not yet reached the optimal level, and it can be further improved. Therefore, in the context of China's economic transformation and upgrading, it is particularly important to stimulate domestic demand, improve consumption levels, smooth the domestic economic cycle, and help the economy move forward in the direction of high quality and health.
At the G20 Summit in Hangzhou in September 2016, digital inclusive finance was officially put forward as an important concept, as an important direction of China's financial development, injecting new impetus into the optimization and upgrading of residents' consumption structure.
Among the quantitative indicators to measure its development level in China, this paper mainly refers to the data released by the Digital Research Center of Peking University, and from 2011 to 2020, the value of its development indicators ranged from 494 to 3348. It has grown nearly 10 times and is developing rapidly. Consumption theory argues that credit constraints, income constraints, and precautionary savings are the main causes of consumption.
As a new form of development, digital inclusive finance has low cost and wide popularity, which can more conveniently provide financial services and financial products for people from all walks of life, more effectively alleviate financial exclusion, alleviate the restrictions of the above factors, and promote residents' consumption. Therefore, the impact of digital inclusive finance on residents' consumption expenditure and structure can better play its role in improving residents' consumption levels, stimulating domestic demand, and helping economic development transformation and upgrading.
The concept of digital inclusive finance is relatively new, and it can be seen that at present, it is mainly the research on the impact of household consumption expenditure, and less on the impact of household consumption structure, and most of the transmission mechanisms of digital inclusive finance stop at the level of theoretical analysis. Therefore,This paper uses empirical methods to further analyze its impact on residents' consumption structure, and enriches the existing research system.
In the new economic environment, the proportion of investment and exports is gradually declining, and consumption has become an increasingly important factor driving economic growth. However, compared with the world average consumption rate, the consumption rate of Chinese residents is relatively low, and there is still a lot of room for development.
Therefore, it is of great significance to improve the consumption level of Chinese residents, expand domestic demand, and realize the transformation and upgrading of economic development. At present, the main factors affecting the consumption and structure of residents are the following points, such as disposable income, precautionary savings, credit constraints, household debt, and the income gap between urban and rural areas
The first factor is the disposable income of residents. The empirical evidence is used to test the factors affecting residents' consumption behavior, and it is found that residents' disposable income can affect residents' consumption, and the impact of consumer credit is not obvious. It is found that the increase of income level can promote household consumption, and the diversification of income can improve the risk resistance of income earners, and the sensitivity to price fluctuations is reduced, so stable income expectations and rich income types can further promote household consumption.
The second factor is precautionary saving. Generally speaking, there may be an inverse relationship between savings and consumption, and if savings increase, household spending on consumption may fall. Using empirical research on the relationship between the impact of precautionary savings on consumption, the results show that increasing savings can reduce the current household consumption level, but can increase the household consumption level in the future.
The third factor is credit constraints. Inclusive finance brings more credit-centered financial services to residents, which is conducive to planning appropriate long-term consumption and investment, and can promote the optimization and upgrading of consumption structure. It is observed that consumer credit is an important factor affecting consumption, and the impact on different types of consumption is different, and the impact on daily recurring consumption is small, but the consumption of items that are not purchased frequently in daily life is more stimulating.
The fourth factor is household debt. There is a positive relationship between household debt and consumption, and the increase of household debt increases household consumption expenditure, which can repay the previous debt when the future income is high, but it is difficult to repay the debt when the future income is low, which may seriously cause household bankruptcy. Using macro data to empirically test the relationship between household debt and consumption level, the results show that the increase of household debt can increase consumption level in the short run, but the impact is not obvious in the long run.
The empirical results show that the income difference between urban and rural areas not only affects household consumption, but also affects different types of consumption expenditure, and the degree of impact is heterogeneous in urban and rural areas. The empirical results of the GMM model show that the urban-rural income gap significantly inhibits the optimization of urban-rural consumption structure. From the perspective of regional heterogeneity, the widening income gap between urban and rural areas is not conducive to the improvement of consumption level, especially inhibiting the consumption development of the central region, but has no impact on the consumption optimization of the eastern and western regions.
The impact of digital financial inclusion on household consumption expenditure. Empirical analysis shows that the promotion effect of digital inclusive finance on consumer expenditure is particularly obvious in rural areas, and the consumption level in urban areas can also promote the consumption level in rural areas. Also found,The development of digital inclusive finance can improve the consumption level, and a heterogeneity analysis is carried out, and it is found that its consumption promotion effect on low- and middle-income groups, rural areas, and remote areas in the central and western regions is more significant.
The study found that its effect on consumption was more obvious in the group with high education level and high frequency of online shopping, which indicated that the higher the education level, the higher their own financial awareness and ability to accept new things, and the more obvious the impact of digital financial inclusion on this group.
From the perspective of the county, digital inclusive finance can effectively reduce the gap between residents' consumption and have an impact through the two intermediaries of income and consumption marginal effectIn terms of sub-regions, the narrowing effect of unequal consumption has an impact in the eastern region, but is not obvious in the central and western regions.
Research on the impact of digital inclusive finance on residents' consumption structure. In recent years, domestic scholars have only begun to discuss its impact on the consumption structure of residents. From the macro level, it is verified that digital inclusive finance can increase residents' consumption and promote the optimization of consumption structure. Digital inclusive finance has a promoting effect on household consumption expenditure, and it is further subdivided into types, and its impact on basic living necessities is more obvious, but not on other types.
It is found that digital technology injects impetus into inclusive finance, and promotes the optimization and upgrading of household consumption structure by promoting financial development. The study foundThe "inclusive effect" of digital inclusive finance can increase the proportion of development and hedonic consumption of Chinese residents, and promote the development of consumption towards high-quality development
The coverage and application depth of inclusive finance can promote the improvement of consumption structure, but in terms of the depth of application, the development of digital inclusive finance plays an intermediary role in financial accessibility, while for urban residents, the direct effect of the development of digital inclusive finance in promoting financial accessibility is greater than the indirect effect.
This paper selects the CFPS micro household database, cleans and sorts out the micro data of about 60,000 households in the annual family questionnaire and ** questionnaire, matches it with the digital inclusive finance index, and constructs a three-year dynamic panel data for studying the impact of digital inclusive finance on household consumption expenditure and its structure, and further empirically analyzes the transmission mechanism, aiming to more clearly depict its impact on household consumption expenditure and structure.