Text|Summer Flower Finance.
This article was first published by Xiahua Finance Headlines.
Over the past 40 years of China's reform and opening up, China's economy has achieved rapid development, and in 2010, the total GDP surpassed that of Japan, ranking second largest in the world.
In this process, the Chinese people are excited and proud. However, there is a "70% curse" in history, and once a large country's economy approaches 70% of that of the United States, it will decline for a variety of reasons.
We have reason to be concerned about whether this "curse" will be revived after the GDP ratio between China and the United States fell to about 65% in 2022.
The so-called "70% curse" refers to the fact that when a large country's economic strength is close to 70% of the United States, the United States will use various means to suppress it, resulting in a slowdown in the country's economic growth, market imbalances, and even political and social turmoil.
As we have seen, in the late 70s, the former Soviet Union claimed that its GDP had reached 70% of that of the United States. But its economy is highly dependent on energy and heavy industry, and there is a structural crisis.
Subsequently, the collapse of the oil war instigated by the United States, coupled with the failure of political reform, eventually led to the disintegration.
In the mid-to-late 90s, Japan's economy was once close to 70% of that of the United States, and it formed a huge surplus with the United States, seriously squeezing the American market.
Subsequently, under the influence of the Plaza Accord imposed by the United States, Japan's bubble economy burst, and it has not been able to return to a strong state. At present, China's economy is generally stable, but the gap with the United States is still widening faster than expected.
The reason for this is that in addition to the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations, more importantly, the United States has repeated its old trick and once again used inflation as a means to increase GDP data.
In 2021, the US CPI has exceeded 9%, far exceeding the stable level of about 2% in our country, which provides the United States with a lot of false growth.
As the U.S. slows down interest rate hikes this year, the likelihood of inflation getting out of control again has increased significantly. This means that the GDP gap between China and the United States will widen further, although this growth is not real. Therefore, we should not get too close to the superficial GDP figures.
It is important to have a clear understanding of the small actions of the United States, seize the historical opportunity period of China's economic transformation, continue to expand reform and opening up, and develop an independent and controllable scientific and technological innovation system.
In some key areas, especially in the military industry and energy, where the United States is trying to continue to suppress China, we must speed up independent research and development and break the technological blockade of the United States.
Only in this way can we maintain economic security, fight for the right to speak, and work for the well-being of the people in this multipolar world.