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Text|Varnish. In December 1949, not long after the establishment of New China, the great leader *** boarded a train bound for the Soviet Union, and when the train passed through Lake Baikal, ** looked at the blue sky and white clouds outside the train, and couldn't help but say:
"This place turned out to be our Chinese territory, and it was the place where our Su Wu shepherded sheep!”
Speaking of this, **'s heart was filled with melancholy. After all, the Han Dynasty Su Wu,The homeland where Huo Qubing once set foot has now become a foreign country
**Visit the USSR).
Today, China has stood among the world's great powersThere are still countless people who have hopes that Outer Mongolia will return to China
Some believe that once Mongolia returns to China, China will shake the position of the United States.
So, in the face of the call of history and the consideration of practical interests, why has Outer Mongolia not returned to China now?What is the significance of Outer Mongolia to China's international competition?
Lost Mongolia
After the Xinhai Revolution in 1911, the last emperor Puyi announced his abdication, and in his abdication edict proposed:"The Manchu, Han, Mongolian, Hui, and Tibetan ethnic groups are completely part of the territory of one China.", Sun Yat-sen also proposed later"Republic of the Five Tribes".slogan.
The implication of this move is that even if the Qing Dynasty falls, **, Xinjiang, Mongolia and other places located in the frontier will also belong to China**.
Subsequently, in 1913, in order to maintain the unity of the territory, Beiyang** signed the "Sino-Russian-Mongolian Treaty" with Russia.
China recognizes the autonomy of Outer Mongolia, but Russia must also recognize that the sovereignty of Outer Mongolia belongs to China.
However, with the support of Tsarist Russia, Outer Mongolia changed its course many times, with the intention of completely separating itself from China.
After that, Duan Qirui came to power and diedXu Shuzheng went through Outer Mongolia, and in order to solve the problem of foreign affairs as soon as possible, Xu Shuzheng used force to force and then take back Outer Mongolia completely, and put it under the direct jurisdiction of ***.
Xu Shuzheng).However, the good times did not last long, Xu Shuzheng soon returned to Beijing due to his participation in the warlord melee, and the Soviet Union intended to support the independence of the Outer Mongolian aristocracy, and Outer Mongolia quickly set off a second wave of independence.
Although neither Beiyang** nor Chiang Kai-shek's national** recognized the independence of Mongolia, at that time, China was in turmoil, with internal and external troubles, and had no time to take care of the frontier.
In 1945, Chiang Kai-shek sent his son Chiang Ching-kuo to visit the Soviet Union. As a man who also had strong national feelings, Chiang Ching-kuo lowered his profile and asked Stalin."Can Outer Mongolia stay in China?
Stalin simply responded lightly: "From a military-strategic point of view,The USSR had to need Outer Mongolia, the territory of the USSR was too large,The West and the Far East were only connected by the Trans-Siberian Railway, and if an army attacked the Soviet Union from Outer Mongolia, the Soviet Union would be destroyed. ”
Trans-Siberian Railway).
Chiang Ching-kuo relayed Stalin's words to Chiang Kai-shek, who in order to gain Soviet support in the civil war, was very soonThe Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Alliance was signed with the Soviet UnionIn January 1946, Outer Mongolia was officially separated from China.
Huo Quai, Zhu DiThe homeland conquered by the ancient Chinese was completely reduced to a foreign land.
The plump "Chinese begonia" has also reluctantly become today's "Chinese thin chicken", which makes today's people full of emotion.
And now,Looking at the countless cattle and sheep on the vast prairie, and the trillions worth of minerals under the Gobi DesertToday, when the confrontation between China and the United States is becoming increasingly fierce, it has been proposed:
"If Outer Mongolia returns to China, China will certainly be like a tiger with wings and will have the upper hand in the competition with the United States!”
So, is this view really correct?
The role of Outer Mongolia
As a country with a territorial area of about 1.56 million square kilometers,The territory of Outer Mongolia is quite large, about the size of 7 Hunan provinces (210,000 square kilometers).
In this vast land,It also contains rich mineral deposits, including 2 billion tons of copper ore reserves** Reserves are close to 3,500 tons, coal reserves are as high as 300 billion tons, and as for the oil needed by the whole world, Mongolia also has 8 billion tons.
And, contrary to the excessive population of the Chinese, Outer Mongolia is sitting on the premise of a vast territory and a huge amount of mineralsHowever, the population is only 3.3 million, which can be described as a real "vast and sparsely populated".
You must know that China, as a developing country with many people and few resources, is accompanied by rapid economic developmentThe demand for minerals, especially copper, is increasing day by day.
At present, China's copper ore is mainly imported from Chile, and its high cost is needless to say.
It is also often obstructed by the United States and other Western countries.
After all, South America is the backyard of the United States, and the influence of the United States in South America is far greater than that of China.
Dai Xu, a well-known military expert, once pointed out a viewpoint: If Sino-US relations deteriorate further, the United States will use its powerful naval forcesIn the Strait of Malacca (next to Singapore) and other places, a "interception war" was launched against China.
At that time, due to the lack of imports of external resources, Chinese mainland, which has many people and few resources, can onlyThe economy collapsed, and then achieved what the West saw as a strategic goal of self-defeat without a fight.
And in connection with reality,Since 2018, the former US ** Trump declared a ** war against ChinaSince its launch, China's exports from coastal areas have suffered serious setbacks, key technologies in computer and other fields have been blocked, and China's economy has been affected to a certain extent. If Outer Mongolia returns to China,China can give the rich mineral deposits of Outer Mongolia to the international market at a higher levelIt can not only get rid of the dilemma of a pure resource importer, but also take advantage of the advantages of China's whole industrial chain to rapidly develop related industries and produce huge economic benefits.
In addition, Mongolia has more than 60 million head of livestock, while China serves as a 2022 grainA large country with a self-sufficiency rate of only 80%.Mongolia's livestock industry can greatly alleviate China's agricultural woes.
Don't underestimate this number, a famous person once said:"If the food is 10 percent, the final result is that 10 out of 10 people who cannot afford to pay will starve to death. ”
However, due to China's efforts to ensure "grain self-sufficiency", most of the arable land has been occupied by staple grains such as wheat and riceFood products such as soybeans, which are raw materials for animal husbandry, have to be highly dependent on imports.
And the world's grain is basically controlled by the four major grain merchants, namely the American ADM, the American Bunge, the American Cargill, and the French Louis Dreyfus, they controlMore than 80 percent of the world's food is traded.
Therefore, if Mongolia returns, all the livestock it owns can be sold to Chinese mainland after satisfying its own needs, and so onChinese people can buy high-quality beef and mutton at a lower price, and China can also be comfortable in food security.
And Outer Mongolia for livestock can also make a lot of moneySo as to get out of poverty.
Therefore, the return of Outer Mongolia can bring a perfect "win-win" for the two countries.
If the prospect of the return of Outer Mongolia is so rosy, why has China not yet pushed forward the process of returning to Outer Mongolia?
The answer is: there is something else going on.
China's own considerations
As the saying goes:"The ideal is plump, but the reality is skinny. ”
The return of Outer Mongolia will naturally help China to make a lot of improvements in the economic field. But in reality,The economy is not everything, and from a geopolitical point of view, it is still too early for Mongolia to return.
Outer Mongolia, as a country sandwiched between two large countries, China and RussiaIts geographical location determines which side it falls, and it will have a severe sense of oppression on the other side.
Geographical location of Outer Mongolia).
In the sixties and seventies of the last century, when the Soviet Union had millions of soldiers and was ready to attack New China with tough military means at any timeThe entire north of China was shrouded in the clouds of war, and China had to carry out a three-front planto preserve military and industrial power.
In other words, if Outer Mongolia returns to China, when China is stationed on the current Russian-Mongolian border, with China's current military strengthIn a very short time, China has the ability to cut off the Trans-Siberian Railway, the main artery of the Russian Far East.
Such a scenario is undesirable for the Russians.
Today, although China and Russia are not aligned, they have friendly relations and many cooperation for the purpose of jointly confronting the United States and NATO, so it is obvious that both countries are willing to maintain the status quo of China, Russia and Mongolia.
References:
1] Yu Chunchun, Zhao Juehui. In addition to mining and goats, Mongolia is looking forward to Chinese investment.
2] Xin Yi. On the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and Mongolia during the Cold War and the US strategy towards Outer Mongolia.
3] Wu Chuke. On the role of Mongolia in the stability of East Asia.