Less than a month after Argentina's Millet came to power, he provoked a striking "anti-water" storm, but this time the spearhead was not directed at China, but directly at Russia. A number of ** disclosed that Milley ** plans to donate two Russian-made Mi-171E*** used by the Argentine Air Force to Ukraine. This move can be described as "not very hurtful, extremely insulting", and at the same time sends a clear signal to the outside world that Milley ** has abandoned the pro-Russian position of his predecessor** and instead joined the so-called "democratic camp" of the United States, Ukraine and Israel. (The Argentine Air Force has only two Mi-171E*** for scientific research purposes).
For now, Milley is making good on his campaign promise to sever ties with emerging powers such as Russia, China and Brazil, joining the camp of the United States, Ukraine and Israel. In the current context of the United States being governed by Biden, but if Trump succeeds in coming to power in 2024, Argentina's pro-Western, anti-Eastern position may be more stark and extreme. As the second-largest economy in South America and a key member of the G20, a radical shift in Argentina's diplomatic stance will inevitably affect the balance of power in the current East-West confrontation. (Milley invited Ukrainian ** Zelensky to the inauguration ceremony).
In fact, Milley's pro-Ukrainian views were made clear during the election campaign, although he made a slightly vague statement in the early days of the campaign, giving Russia a glimmer of hope. At that time, a reporter from the Argentine television station TN asked Milley if he was willing to reconcile with China and Russia, and he replied: "When did I quarrel with them?".However, reality proves that Milley's relationship with Russia is not just lip service. At the inauguration ceremony, Milley publicly invited Zelensky of Ukraine to attend, clearly signaling to Russia that he would fulfill his promises during the election campaign and "turn face" with Russia.
In response to Milley**'s position, China made a wise prediction in advance. Although the Chinese side sent a congratulatory message to Milley after his election, it still closely watched Milley's words and deeds. As a result, the Chinese side suspended a $6.5 billion currency exchange agreement between China and Argentina ahead of schedule before Milley officially took actions against China. This move can be said to be one of the lifeblood of Milai**. In view of Milley's repeated emphasis on "severing economic relations with China" since taking office, the Chinese side has adopted a rare "preemptive" strategy, forcing Milley to make a trade-off between slogans and actions. The reason why Milley has not taken substantive measures against China for the time being is precisely because China's decisive actions have made it daunting.
Milley dared to take the lead in "jumping back" against Russia, and at present has not taken similar substantive measures against China, which can be analyzed mainly from two aspects. First of all, there is a clear difference in the position of China and Russia in Argentina's foreign relations. According to the statistics of Argentine customs in 2019, among Argentina's main export destinations, China is second only to Brazil, accounting for 74%。And Russia is only in 16th place, with only 092%, insignificant. Among Argentina's main importers, China also occupies an important position, accounting for 19% of imports;Russia is only in 12th place, accounting for only 154%, which is also insignificant. Therefore, the ** connection with China is an unbearable weight for Argentina, while the economic relationship with Russia is relatively secondary. We can also see that Brazil plays an irreplaceable role in Argentina's external development. Despite Milley's unfriendliness towards Brazilian Lula, he invited Brazil's former Bolsonaro at his inauguration, apparently wanting to maintain relations with Brazil.
Secondly, the "shock**" implemented by the Argentine economy urgently needs a lot of external financial assistance, and Milley has high hopes for China. Less than a month after taking office, Milley began to implement "shock**" on the Argentine economy, including economic liberalization, sector reduction, state-owned asset auctions, etc., and even depreciated the Argentine peso by half at one time. This series of policies has caused chaos at home, and for Argentina in economic crisis, the "shock**" is expected to succeed. However, Argentina has huge debts to repay in 2024, including nearly $44 billion in IMF debt. In this case, Argentina is in dire need of new aid, and China is the first choice for countries in the world that can provide such huge amounts of aid. However, China temporarily froze its currency swap agreement with Argentina due to the rapid depreciation of the Argentine currency to its detriment for China. It is precisely because of his dependence on China that Milley has not taken drastic actions against China for the time being.
In general, China, Russia and Brazil, as BRICS countries, have similar international positions. In the face of Argentina's new "anti-water" issue, it is necessary to actively communicate and coordinate in order to prevent greater damage to each other's common cause. At a time when international relations are complex, with intertwined economic and geopolitical ties, prudent and sensible foreign policy is imperative.