According to wind statistics, the net inflow of pharmaceutical ETFs in the past four days was 103.3 billion yuan, which has received continuous attention from the market's leading funds.
On December 12, the A-share shrinkage climbed, and the brokerage moved in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering 3,000 points and the market exceeding 3,100 shares**. The trading volume of the innovative drug Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen ETF (517380) was 7.26 million yuan, and the buying was active. The** closely tracks the Hang Seng CSI-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Innovative Drugs 50 Index (HSSSHID.).HI), half of the index constituent stocks**, led by Hansoh Pharmaceutical and Mabwell, respectively. 42%, Changshan Pharmaceutical, Tasly, Chi-Med, etc. have followed suit.
Ping An ** believes that the market environment in 2024 may be similar to that in 2012-2013, one is reflected in the fact that market funds have also undergone two years of adjustment, and the other is that macro fundamentals are also in the stage of intertwined cycles. From the perspective of market characteristics, the equity market in 2012 is essentially the best market, the index rose slightly, the small cap growth momentum, the annual rotation was fast, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and Wind Micro Cap Index performed the best, and it is particularly important to grasp the style rotation and structural opportunities. The market in 2013 was essentially a bull market on the GEM, with the index fine-tuned with the SSE 50 index, the growth style on the upward trend and leading the whole year, and the smartphone industry chain emerged. Compared with 2024, we believe that with the further deepening of the transformation of macroeconomic fundamentals and the increasing number of new changes in emerging industry technologies, technological growth will continue to be the main style of the market. Structural opportunities in the market are increasing significantly in 2024. The first is the main line of technological growth, represented by the automotive and TMT industries, and Huawei's industry chain is expected to lead technological innovation and application iterationThe second is the main line of pharmaceutical growth, driven by innovative drugs, and the export chain has further opened up space.
Entering a new cash-out period, innovative drugs go overseas to add another gold
In order to seek greater market returns, domestic innovative drugs going overseas has become the only way. Since October, three drugs have been successfully approved for marketing in the United States, namely Toripalimab from Junshi Biosciences, fruquintinib from Chi-Med, and iberstalim injection from Yifan Pharmaceutical.
On December 12, Systlmmune, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Baili Tianheng, and Bristol-Myers Squibb reached a global strategic cooperation agreement on the development and commercialization rights of BL-BO1D1. BL-BO1D1 is a potential first-in-class EGFR HER3 bispecific antibody-drug conjugate (ADC). According to the cooperation agreement, the down payment is 800 million US dollars, and the potential total transaction value can reach up to 8.4 billion US dollars, both of which have broken the record of a single project of domestic innovative drugs going overseas. Affected by this good news, the share price of Baili Tianheng rose 20% at the opening yesterday and closed the price limit throughout the day.
At the performance exchange meeting held not long ago, Zhu Yi, chairman and chief scientific officer of Baili Tianheng, firmly said, "The innovative biopharmaceutical business represents the future development direction of the company, and the relatively stable cash flow brought by the chemical drug preparation and Chinese patent medicine preparation business supports and feeds back the company's research and development of innovative biological drugs." The phased victory of Baili undoubtedly casts a "dawn" full of confidence on the enterprise, the industry and the market.
The development of innovative drugs is a protracted battle, a process of thick snow and accumulation, and it is necessary to give time to promote clinical research and development and achieve commercialization. The sector has been adjusted long enough in the early stage, and the valuation has been fully digested. At present, or the absolute bottom of the industry's fundamentals, the continuous inflow of market ** funds proves this even more. And due to the large clearance efforts, it is expected that the competition pattern of most sub-sectors of the pharmaceutical industry will be greatly optimized, or it will become the best time to deploy the pharmaceutical industry in the next three years.
The short-term behavior of the market is highly unpredictable, and it is not a good idea to try to accurately grasp the rhythm of each small band. From a long-term perspective, the assets of the pharmaceutical sector are in a stage of excellent odds and positive changes, and it will be the best choice to maintain the aggressiveness of each portfolio and dilute short-term fluctuations. In terms of direction, based on the logic of cycle reversal, we should focus on those with clear prospects, especially those with excellent business models, large potential growth space, and long-term experience in the field of innovative drugs.
IFC** view: the dollar is down, diagnosis and treatment is repaired, and the catalysis of large single products, the three elements of valuation, performance, and future space are all upward, and growth is back to the main line. The rigid demand and strong growth attributes of the innovative drug sector determine the certainty of medium and long-term performance and the high elasticity of explosive growth driven by single products. However, previously, the entire sector encountered three major constraints: the suppression of order expectations by geopolitical risks, the squeeze of the peak sales of single products by the price reduction of national talks, and the limitation of growth space by the uncertainty of going overseasAs mentioned earlier, the current constraints in these three major areas of pharmaceutical innovation have been broken.
Tianhong Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Innovative Drugs Select 50 ETF (517380)**Manager He Yuxuan:The rigid demand attribute of the pharmaceutical industry is strong, and innovative drugs are the "top students" in medicine. And from a bottom-up point of view, the vast majority of large and medium-sized enterprises in the pharmaceutical industry have very excellent cost performance. The current layout timing is worth paying attention to. You can also pay attention to the Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Innovative Drugs Select 50 ETF (517380) and its link**A(014564) C(014565).
Risk Warning: The objective display of index constituents in this article is not intended as a recommendation. Please read the legal documents of the product carefully before purchasing, and choose the product that suits you. The market is risky, and investors need to be cautious. **Can invest in Hong Kong Stock Connect targets**, you need to bear the unique risks caused by the differences in investment environment, investment targets, market systems and trading rules under the Hong Kong Stock Connect mechanism.
*: Tianhong**.
Disclaimer: This article is ** content, does not represent the position of this magazine, and does not constitute investment advice.