On 26 December, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Turkish Grand National Assembly met in Ankara.
On December 26, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Turkish Grand National Assembly passed a bill on Sweden's accession to NATO, which will be submitted to the Loya Jirga for discussion and voting. In this round of voting, the ruling Justice and Development Party, as well as the Republican People's Party and the National Action Party, all supported the passage of the bill. Both Swedish Foreign Minister Billström and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg welcomed the move and expressed their expectations for Turkey's subsequent ratification process and Sweden's eventual accession to NATO.
There are multiple reasons for Turkey's "loosening" this time.
Sweden and Finland applied to NATO in May last year. According to the protocol, all NATO members must unanimously agree to admit new members. Finland was officially allowed to join NATO in April this year, but Sweden's accession protocol has never been ratified by Turkey. There are multiple reasons for Turkey's "relaxation" in Sweden's accession to NATO.
First of all, Sweden has taken a positive attitude towards fulfilling the conditions of "accession" demanded by Turkey. Prior to the adoption of the bill, Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Akciapal affirmed Sweden's efforts to meet Turkey's "accession" requirements in a briefing to the committee, noting that Sweden had lifted the ban on exports to Turkey and had made progress in combating the flow of funds to terrorism. During a meeting of NATO foreign ministers on November 29, Bill Stram revealed that the Turkish foreign minister had indicated to him that the application for "accession" was expected to be approved in a few weeks.
Secondly, Turkey wants to exchange this move for the passage of the Turkish F-16 and others by the US Congress. Turkey's Erdogan has repeatedly publicly stated that Turkey's ratification of Sweden's "accession" should be linked to the approval of relevant arms sales to Turkey by the US Congress, and has called on Canada and other NATO allies to lift the ban on Turkey. On the 27th, Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan also urged the United States to abide by its commitments to Turkish F-16 fighters during a phone call with US Secretary of State Blinken.
Finally, the improvement of Turkey's relations with NATO and the EU has also given impetus to the process to a certain extent. During the NATO summit in July, Stoltenberg said Sweden supported Turkey's accession to the EU and sought steps to allow Turkish citizens to travel to the EU without a visa. The European Commission then published a document on the status of political, economic and ** relations between the EU and Turkey last month, emphasizing the importance of Turkey as a regional power to the EU, and proposing that the EU should resume high-level dialogue with Turkey and deepen cooperation with Turkey in the fields of **, immigration, visa facilitation and customs upgrades. In addition, in addition to Sweden, it is reported that Finland, Canada and the Netherlands have taken steps to relax their export policies to Turkey.
Turkey and the United States have different opinions on *** or restrict Sweden's "accession" in the future
Although the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Turkish Grand National Assembly passed the bill on Sweden's accession to NATO, there are still many uncertainties about whether Sweden can quickly and smoothly "join the treaty".
First, there is still uncertainty about subsequent approvals. After the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Turkish Grand National Assembly passed the motion on Sweden's accession to NATO, the bill will be submitted to the Turkish Grand National Assembly for discussion and a plenary vote. After the vote is passed, the bill needs to be signed by Erdogan to form a decree before the ratification process can be officially concluded.
Since the opposition parties in the Turkish parliament are still uneasy about approving Sweden's accession to NATO, and some political parties may also oppose the bill because they are dissatisfied with the actions of Western countries in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the loya jirga, Oktay, has said that the committee's approval does not mean that the loya jirga will approve the bill at the same pace. In addition, the Speaker of the Parliament has not yet decided on a voting time, and the Turkish Parliament has two weeks to recess in January, so it is not possible to vote in the short term.
Second, there is still considerable resistance from the US Congress to approving arms sales to Turkey. Although Biden supports Turkey's request for arms sales related to F-16 fighter jets, there are still voices of opposition within the US Congress. Biden's ability to push Congress through arms sales to Turkey is limited, and the chairman and senior members of the Congressional Foreign Affairs Committee can unilaterally suspend arms sales.
Unlike the US side's request for "approval first, then **", the Turkish side hopes to "approve first, then **". If the U.S. Congress fails to pass Turkey's F-16 proposal, Turkey may set up obstacles in subsequent procedures such as voting and ratification by the Loya Jirga, and continue to delay Sweden's "accession" process.
Finally, there is uncertainty as to whether Hungary will be allowed to "join" Sweden. Hungary has not approved Sweden's application for "accession" for a long time, and although there is much speculation that once Turkey finally approves it, Hungary will follow suit, but whether the Hungarian parliament will finally approve it is still uncertain. On the one hand, Hungary is dissatisfied with Sweden's long-standing accusations of attacks on Hungarian democracy and human rights;On the other hand, Hungary may use the approval of Sweden's "accession" as a bargaining chip to seek to unfreeze the EU's funding allocation to Hungary last year. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban publicly stated in September that Hungary was in no hurry to ratify Sweden's accession to the treaty. Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó said in late October before attending a meeting of the United Nations Security Council that Hungary would make its own decision on Sweden's "accession" and that the Turkish parliament's ratification process "will not change anything." On December 21, Orban said at the annual briefing that the Hungarian ruling party parliamentarians did not have a strong desire to approve Sweden's "accession" bill, and he also said that "Hungary and Turkey have not reached an agreement" and that the approval of Sweden's accession bill "will be decided only by the Hungarian parliament". In addition, the Hungarian parliament is currently in a winter break and will not resume its work until around mid-February next year.
Therefore, Sweden's accession to NATO is destined to be difficult in the short term. In the long run, there are still many challenges and resistance to how long it will be before Sweden will be able to join NATO.
Author: Yu Haijie.
Text: Yu Haijie: Xinhua News Agency Editor: Shen Qinhan Responsible Editor: Yang Yang.
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