OneU.S. GDPIt is expected to slide to 12%: Recession panic behind the race to adjust data.
Recently, the dizzying GDP growth rate in the United States has also raised concerns about the United StatesEconomyConcerns about the outlook. On November 30, the United States officially announced a revised GDP for the third quarter, increasing the growth rate from the original 49% to 52%, which is a somewhat reassuring figure. Surprisingly, however, the Atlanta Fed then lowered its estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth to just 12%。That means the United StatesEconomyGrowth will fall off a cliff** and may continue into the first and second quarters of next year, further threatening the United StatesEconomyFall into recession. AllianzChiefEconomyDivision had noted that the second quarter 21% growth rate and 5 in the third quarterThe 2% spike is incredible in itself and reflects the United StatesEconomic growthTremendous serendipity.
The reason for this is, on the one hand, the United StatesFiscal deficitsRising and increasing number of bankruptcies;On the other hand,Inflation rateIt is still on the high side, close to 4%, well above the Fed's target, which makes the US still unable to get out of the recession. Despite the recent modest performance of consumption, Americans' savings have been declining, suggesting uncertainty about future consumption. Lack of consumer support, the United StatesEconomic growthIt is bound to be suppressed.
For this situation, more and moreEconomyScholars will be AmericanFiscal deficitsRegarded as a huge hidden danger. Earlier, some experts criticized Yellen for not issuing in large quantities when interest rates were lowTreasury bonds, resulting in the current having to issue high interest ratesTreasury bonds。However, Yellen is not willing to take the blame, she thinksTreasury bondsThe fundamental reason for rising yields is the Fed's interest rate hike policy, which can only be brought down by a rate cutTreasury bondsYield. However, just recently,PowellAgain, it said that it would not consider cutting interest rates in the short term, and even hinted that the Fed may raise interest rates further. United StatesEconomyThe fact that the key to decision-making on the outlook has not been agreed upon has raised concerns about America's declining ability to govern.
Fitch and Moody's have previously pointed out that divisions within the United States have led to pairsEconomyof poor governance capacity. Yellen andPowellThe disagreement is a microcosm. Yellen expectsTreasury bondsYields fell, whilePowellEmphasizing that interest rates will continue to be raised;Yellen wants to release moreTreasury bonds, whilePowellHowever, they insisted on continuing to shrink their balance sheet and continue to sell off US bonds. This internal disagreement against the United StatesEconomyThe adverse effects are obvious.
1. The fiscal deficit is rising
In recent years, the United StatesFiscal deficitsShowing a continuous upward trend, giveEconomic growthThere was a lot of pressure. Fiscal deficitsThe increase means that the expenditure exceeds the income and needs to be issued through the issuanceTreasury bondsand other ways to raise funds. However, due to the large number of releasesTreasury bondswill causeTreasury bondsThe market is in excess, which in turn pushes upTreasury bondsYield, giveEconomyWith stability comes instability.
2. Consumption shortages have hindered economic growth
Consumption forEconomic growthplays a crucial role, yet recent data shows that Americans' savings levels are declining, raising concerns about future spending power. If savings continue to dwindle, Americans' spending power will be limited, rightEconomic growthposes a threat. In addition, underconsumption can also lead to businessesInvestmentsWillingness to decline, further draggingEconomic growth
Economic growthis not limited to GDP growth rates, but also needs to take into account other indicators. In addition to GDP, there is also the state of the labor marketInflation rateFiscal deficits, consumer spending, and businessesInvestmentsand other data in order to evaluate one more comprehensivelyEconomyThe health of the body.
In the case of the United States, despite the fact that the GDP growth rate in the third quarter at one time showed positive signs, it is consideredFiscal deficitsProblems such as climbing and consumption shortages, a single GDP growth rate does not fully reflect the United StatesEconomyThe actual situation. Therefore, we need to look at the United States more comprehensively and comprehensivelyEconomyhealth.
U.S. GDP**The news of the downgrade sparked a lot of attention and discussion, and it also made me rightEconomyRunning and decision-making generated some food for thought.
First, policymakers should pay more attentionMacroeconomicsPolicy coherence. Given the divergence between the Fed and the Treasury Department, we can see thatEconomyThe weakening of governance capacity is being correctedEconomyStability and growth have a detrimental effect. Policymakers should strengthen communication and coordination to form a coherent strategy and action, and avoid divergent opinionsEconomyCause damage.
Secondly,Investmentsand businesses should pay more attentionRisk managementand long-term stable development. Over-relianceDebt financingand short-term speculation will bring undesirable risks, affecting the long-term competitiveness and sustainable development of enterprises. in the faceEconomyDownside pressure, more robustInvestmentsManagement strategies will contribute to the resilience and long-term growth of the business.
Finally, individuals and households should also maintain the concept of rational consumption and prudent savings. Short-term impulses to spend can have a negative impact on the financial well-being of individuals and families, as well as long-term savings andFinancial planningcan help us cope betterEconomyThe challenge of volatility and uncertainty.
In short,U.S. GDP**Behind the downgradeEconomySignals deserve our attention and consideration. Only fromMacroand micro levels to better understand and deal with themEconomyThe challenge of development is realizedEconomylong-term stability and prosperity.