Four years after India withdrew from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), its neighbor Bangladesh is considering joining the agreement. However, a number of Indian media claimed on the 25th that if Bangladesh continues to intend to join the RCEP, then India will reassess the negotiations on the free trade agreement with the country.
India's Economic Times reported that Bangladesh is already in talks with RCEP members and plans to officially announce its plans to join RCEP in early January next year. India was involved in the early stages of RCEP negotiations, but announced its withdrawal in November 2019. India has shown opposition to its neighbor's accession to the RCEP. "Indian Business Daily" quoted sources on the 25th as saying that "the Indian Ministry of Commerce plans to assess the impact of Bangladesh's possible accession to RCEP on Indian industry before the two countries reach a free trade agreement." According to the report, Bangladesh is India's largest partner in South Asia. In September 2022, the two countries agreed to launch negotiations on the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) to boost bilateral** and investment.
Bangladesh imports much more from China than from India, the source said. After joining the RCEP, Bangladesh's imports from China will further increase. In addition, India is also concerned that if Bangladesh joins both CEPA and RCEP, Chinese goods will enter India through Bangladesh, "which may pose a huge challenge to Indian industry". According to the report, in the 2022-2023 fiscal year, India's ** deficit with China is 831$900 million, accounting for about 1 3 of India's total deficit.
Liu Zongyi, a researcher at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, told the Global Times on the 25th that for Bangladesh, the economic vitality of East Asia and Southeast Asia and the prospects brought by regional cooperation are very attractive. Therefore, Bangladesh hopes to join the RCEP to become a part of the industrial chain in the Asian region.
Liu Zongyi said that India's domestic opposition to its own country and Bangladesh's accession to the RCEP is related to its economic structure. India's big conglomerates don't want to face foreign competition, and small and medium-sized businesses, which can benefit from Chinese imports, are also worried about their own shocks. The attitude of interest groups influenced the votes and Modi's choice. Liu Zongyi also mentioned that in recent years, India's intention to build South Asia into an economic plate centered on it has become more and more obvious, and it has tried to exclude other external forces, and does not support neighboring Bangladesh and Sri Lanka to join the RCEP out of its own selfish interests.
Interviewee Liu Zongyi is a researcher at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, secretary-general of the Center for China and South Asian Studies, and a visiting @人大重阳researcher at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of Chinese