In a flash, 2023 is coming to an end, ushering in new opportunities in 2024, we investors are looking forward to next year this year, looking forward to tomorrow today, hoping that it will be better in the future, you can say that this is a belief, or you can say that this is the spiritual motivation that supports us to continue to "work hard".
Judging from the financial performance in 2023, the profit base has reached 1814%, which includes professional investors, **hands, **predators, **managers**trust**, ordinary investors, etc., and 8186% of the people are losing money, and the ** products held by Niu Ge also lost 5 at the end of the year92%。However, if you look closely, the yield actually beat 6744% of the people in the same period, it is conceivable that Brother Niu is "passing", and the shareholders who have lost investment have been lined up in an invisible place, and it is estimated that the drone with a battery life of 24 hours will fly over, and the power will run out, and you can see the vast sea of people.
1.Ride a bull and watch a bear to see the current ** analysis:
Under the influence of multiple factors such as the decline in core inflation data in the United States, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and the Red Sea shipping problem, commodities have continued to rise recently, especially the U.S. stocks, which represent global risk appetite, have risen for eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stocks have entered the atmosphere of Christmas and New Year, and the A** field continues to open low and probe the bottom without interference.
Now A-shares have begun to defend 2900 points, after the new intraday low, there are main funds to protect the disk, but the strength is poor, can only temporarily stop falling can not create an obvious continuous ** disk, this round of bottom ** trend is complicated. Private equity is still actively planning opportunities in the coming year, and nearly eighty percent of private equity believes that in the context of the gradual recovery of the economy and the continuous improvement of overseas liquidity, A-shares are expected to rise next year. A number of tens of billions of private equity believe that after the extreme differentiation, the market style is expected to return to equilibrium next year, and there are investment opportunities in both value stocks and growth stocks.
In the future, the stock index is expected to maintain a momentum pattern, while it is still necessary to pay close attention to the changes in policy, capital and external factors. Riding bulls and bears believes that the shrinkage of the trading volume of the A** market is a big problem, but the selling pressure in the market has been reduced, and the conditions for the index to bottom out and rebound are gradually met, and we will continue to wait for the opportunity to participate after the end of the bottoming.
2.Investment opportunities looking ahead to 2024:
At present, the domestic economy is diverging and recovering, stabilizing growth, stabilizing real estate, expanding finance, and easing monetary policy are expected to strengthen, the overseas Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates, and the U.S. stocks and bonds are both bullish, and the conditions for A-shares to get out of the market are basically there, but based on the current expected weak net profit growth rate and the continued tightening of market capital fundamentals, A-shares need to be catalyzed by factors such as fiscal expansion, monetary easing, and incremental market entry. A-shares often usher in a 2-year growth bull market with the economic upturn, and then experience a value bull market ranging from 3-5 years with the economic downturn, and the dumbbell strategy of ** value + small-cap growth in history is effective, which is a process of re-repairing the market valuation system after it reaches the extreme.
Now there is an interesting thing, the SSE 50, CSI 300 and other broad-based indices continue to reach new lows, but the share of many equity broad-based ETFs tracking the SSE 50, CSI 300, STAR 50 and other indices continues to rise, and the total share of ETFs in the whole market has exceeded 2 trillion, which is the high level of the ETF market in recent years. This also shows that in addition to the continuation of the A** market, many investors are "buying more and more". Under the ** of track growth is king, the valuation of companies with value or small-cap characteristics is relatively undervalued, and when the track growth ** ends, the valuation will fall while the valuation will be revised upward.
Riding a bull and watching a bear for the investment plan for the future market, mainly focus on four directions:
1) Technology. Emerging industries represented by TMT continue to upgrade, and the wave of technology stocks is intensifying. With the improvement of the quality and efficiency of China's economy, the continuous promotion of industrial transformation and upgrading by science and technology, and the deepening of domestic substitution, the science and technology innovation board companies will continue to rise, with a wide space for growth in the future, and have high vitality and growth. With the stabilization of the sentiment of the A** market, it is expected that in the future, with the further improvement of the ability of finance to support scientific and technological innovation, the attributes of small and medium-sized enterprises in scientific and technological innovation in the index components will become more prominent, and they will have differentiated investment value in the main broad-based index products of A-shares.
2) Medicine. Economic growth is shifting from investment-driven to consumption-driven, with China home to one-fifth of the world's population and the largest consumer market, with demand for pharmaceuticals at the top of the list. Pharmaceutical valuations and holdings are still at historic lows, and investors are waiting for the pharmaceutical sector to catalyze at the bottom, especially this time the industry consolidation, which is expected to change the valuation of listed companies. With the upgrading and acceleration of industrial iteration, China's medical and pharmaceutical products have a strong global comparative advantage, and the geopolitical influence has weakened in stages, which has a strong promotion for the recovery of pharmaceuticals and medical products overseas.
3) Consumption. With the second half of the consumption stimulus policy, the consumption data stabilized and rebounded, and if the recovery trend can continue, we should actively grasp the investment opportunities in the consumer sector. The rise in the price of liquor, the sharp increase in revenue of food and beverage Double 11, and the opening of winter ski tourism continue to emerge, and you can pay attention to the forgotten opportunities in the consumer sector. The demand for mass goods has recovered, and the cost of raw materials and packaging materials has entered a downward channel, the cost investment is more refined, and profitability is also expected to bottom out.
4) Exponential**. Warren Buffett, a well-known investment guru, once said: "By investing in indexes on a regular basis**, an investor who doesn't know anything can often beat most professional investors." "This shows that investors choose the index ** is equivalent to choosing an advantageous financial product, on the road of investment, only if you find the right target, you will have the opportunity to ride the wind and waves to make money!Whether it is the over-falling ChiNext index**, or the recent booming Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index**, as well as broad-based indices such as CSI 300 and CSI 500, they are all relatively good investment directions.
The current pressure on the market still exists, considering that the emotion-led ** arbitrariness is strong, the weakness of A-shares this year is closely related to factors such as market confidence, especially after the short-term sharp **, the valuation advantage of A-shares is obvious again, and the short-term market sentiment has been greatly released. The current average price-to-earnings ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index are 1160 times, 3195 times, below the median level in the past three years, the market valuation is still in a low area, suitable for medium and long-term layout.