2023 Annual Inventory Have you felt that this year's summer is hotter and more difficult than usual?Did you notice that this year's typhoons are more frequent and stronger than usual, and the winters are warmer than ever?
If you have these feelings and questions, then you are not alone. Billions of people around the world are experiencing the impacts of climate change, and these impacts are intensifying. The United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently issued a warning that 2023 could be the hottest year on record, with global warming, El Niño and other factors pushing temperatures to record highs.
So, how abnormal are the temperatures in 2023?What is El Niño and how does it affect our lives?How will the climate change in 2024?What can we do to meet the challenge of climate change?
According to the WMO, the average global temperature in June and July 2023 is 1. above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) baseline level, respectively88 and 192 , refreshed the historical record. This is also the sixth month in a row that the average global temperature has exceeded the average for the same period in the past few decades.
This means that temperatures in 2023 are already close to the upper limit set out in the Paris Agreement2 and are likely to continue to rise. The Paris Agreement is a global climate agreement reached in 2015 that aims to limit global temperature rise this century to 2 and work to limit the increase to 1 even more5 to reduce the adverse effects of climate change.
However, according to the WMO**, at the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions, the average global temperature could be 3 to 5 above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, well above the Paris Agreement targets. This would have catastrophic consequences for people and nature.
So, why are the temperatures so unusual in 2023?In addition to the long-term trend of global warming, there is another important factor, and that is the El Niño phenomenon.
El Niño is a phenomenon in which the waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean warm abnormally every few years, and is associated with warm ocean currents at the equator in the central and eastern Pacific Oceans (about the International Date Line and 120 degrees west longitude). When El Niño occurs, heavy rains occur in South America, while drought conditions occur in Southeast Asia and Australia.
The occurrence and duration of El Niño events are irregular, generally occurring on average every 5 years and lasting 12 to 18 months. However, in recent years, the intensity and frequency of El Niño events have increased due to climate change caused by human activities. UN**, there is a 90% chance that El Niño will last until April 2024.
The development of El Niño will lead to changes in the Earth's atmospheric circulation, triggering further climate evolution.
If you think that when El Niño is over, the climate will return to normal, you are very wrong. El Niño is just one symptom of climate change, not a root cause. The peak of El Niño could reach 2, exacerbating climate change.
And, after the end of El Niño, there may be another opposite phenomenon called La Niña. La Niña is an anomalous decrease in sea temperature in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which is associated with a cold current at the equator in the central and eastern Pacific Oceans (about 120 degrees west of the International Transit Line). When La Niña occurs, there is drought in South America, while heavy rainfall in Southeast Asia and Australia.
La Niña also occurs and lasts irregularly, generally occurring on average every 3 years and lasting 9 to 12 months. However, in recent years, the intensity and frequency of La Niña phenomena have also increased due to climate change caused by human activities. According to the United Nations**, there is a 50% chance that La Niña will occur in 2024.
The development of La Niña will lead to further changes in the Earth's atmospheric circulation, triggering a reverse evolution of the climate. According to the WMO, La Niña has several effects:
Cold spells and snowfall: La Niña can make winters colder in the equatorial region and the Northern Hemisphere, especially in North America, Europe, Asia, and other regions, with the possibility of low temperatures and heavy snowfall, affecting transportation and energy.
Droughts and wildfires: La Niña events can lead to drier summers in South America, Africa, Australia, and other regions, with the potential for persistent droughts and wildfires, causing ecological and economic losses.
Heavy rainfall and flooding: La Niña can make the rainy season wetter in Southeast Asia, India, China, and other regions, with the possibility of heavy rainfall and flooding, causing disasters and diseases.
Sea Level Decline and Marine Eutrophication: La Niña causes sea temperatures to decrease, leading to sea shrinkage and sea level drop, affecting coastal and island populations. At the same time, oxygen in the seawater also increases, leading to marine eutrophication and promoting the reproduction of marine life.
It can be seen that both El Niño and La Niña have a significant impact on the global climate, and these impacts are often in opposition to each other, leading to climate instability and instability. This means that the climate in 2024 is likely to be even more extraordinary and uncontrollable than in 2023.
Climate change will not only affect our daily lives, but also pose a serious threat to our survival and development. The United Nations warns that extreme events such as heat waves, droughts, wildfires and heavy rains will intensify and cause significant impacts. There has been a marked increase in extreme weather conditions due to global climate change. Here are some specific examples:
Human health: Climate change will lead to an increase in heat-related diseases such as heat waves, heat stroke, and heat stroke, as well as an increase in the incidence and mortality of infectious diseases, respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases, etc. According to World Health Organization (WHO) estimates, global warming will cause 250,000 deaths per year.
Agriculture and food: Climate change will lead to an increase in agricultural disasters such as droughts, floods, insect infestations, and diseases, as well as a decline in crop growth period, yield, and quality. According to a report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), global warming will lead to an 8 to 23 percent reduction in global food production, while global food demand will increase by 14 to 22 percent.
Biodiversity and ecosystems: Climate change will lead to the intensification of phenomena such as sea level rise, ocean acidification, coral reef bleaching, and melting of polar glaciers, as well as changes in the distribution, migration, and reproduction of species. According to a report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), global warming will put 10 to 30 percent of species at risk of extinction.
These are the catastrophic consequences of climate change, and these consequences are still accumulating and magnifying. If we do not respond effectively, our future will be even darker and more hopeless.