"Romance of the Sui and Tang Dynasties" Cheng bites gold: "I opened this mountain, I planted this tree, if you want to cross this road, leave to buy road wealth." ”
The United States is a global maritime power, and it can be said that it is a maritime empire.
In February 1922, the Washington Naval Treaty, or the Five-Power Naval Treaty, was signed in Washington, D.C., by the five major victorious countries in World War I, the United States, Britain, France, Italy, and Japan. This is a post-World War I arms limitation treaty against global powers. The "Five-Power Naval Treaty" limits the total tonnage ratio of the capital ships of the United States, Britain, Japan, France, and Italy to 525：5.25：3.15：1.75：1.75。The so-called capital ships refer to the total tonnage of battleships, battlecruisers and aircraft carriers of various countries. As can be seen from the proportions of the treaty, the American and British navies received the highest total tonnage, and the two countries had the most powerful naval forces at that time. The total tonnage of the Japanese navy, which ranked second, was only 60% of that of the United States and Britain, which was the proportion of the world's naval combat power allowed at that time. From this ratio, it can also be seen that the Soviet Union's naval power at that time did not rank among the top five in the world. After World War II, Britain's national strength and military strength could not be compared with that of the United States, and the British naval power abdicated, and the U.S. Navy dominated the world. Since then, the United States Navy has patrolled in various sea lanes and waterways around the world. The U.S. naval power is different from that of previous maritime powers, and the U.S. has completely dominated the global oceans through the maritime aviation formed by a large number of aircraft carriers. The position of the US Navy as a great power was not obtained by chance, but was forged by relying on national strength and science and technology. I used a metaphor to describe the United States as a giant beast from the sea, whose power can devour the nations. The U.S. Navy dominates the world's oceans, and even the Soviet Union, which was tied with the United States as the world's superpower in the last century, cannot match the United States in naval power. However, in recent years, the position of the US naval power has been the first to suffer from the impact of the rise of China's leading power. For more than a decade, China's naval technology has advanced so that China's maritime forces have caught up with the United States. In particular, China's ship-building capacity is the first in the world, and there is a so-called saying that the Chinese Navy is dumplings. 
The continuous improvement of China's navy's equipment and the world's largest ship-building capability have alarmed the United States, and it is deeply afraid that in the near future, the US naval strength will be surpassed by China. Once surpassed by China, the prestige of the US maritime empire will fall, and the United States will lose its status as a global military superpower. The two basic forces of the United States in world domination are the dollar and the US military. After losing its military superpower, only the dollar remains as a world currency. So, how long can the US maintain its global hegemony?Fortunately, the Chinese have always left room for others, as long as the United States does not go too far, China will not take the initiative to challenge the United States' world hegemony. Therefore, as long as the United States "knows how to distinguish between proportions" and "knows how to advance and retreat" a little, China will not take the initiative to dismantle the United States' Taiwan and the United States will be able to maintain its maritime hegemony for a while. However, the irony is that although China will not take the initiative to dismantle the United States, the Houthis entrenched in the west of Yemen, relying on neither the navy nor the air force, have the ability to pierce the window paper of the US naval powerBy blockading the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Houthis have choked the Red Sea passage. The United States, which claims to be a global maritime empire, could not find a countermeasure for a while, and had no way to take the Houthis, and it had to protect the smooth flow of the Red Sea shipping lanes by forming a multinational maritime team. It's really this time, and that's time. Today's article is a continuation of the content of the previous issue, "Red Sea Red!".The Houthis single-handedly take on the US coalition forces!Please refer to this issue, as there are some of the contents that we will not repeat. 
Two days ago, the Houthis made a bold statement: If the Americans attack Yemen and strike at the Houthis, the United States will lose very badly, and it will lose more and worse than the Vietnam War and the Afghanistan War. The Houthis are so angry!On what basis do the Houthis dare to boast about Haikou like this?In the last issue, we talked about the strategic risks and geopolitical losses that the United States would face if it sent troops to attack the Houthis. Today's issue focuses on military and tactical issues, whether there is a chance of victory and a cost-effective conflict between the U.S. and the Houthis if the U.S. attacks the Houthis, or if the U.S. tries to escort ships passing through the Red Sea?1. Flying, diving, and fast asymmetrical combatLet's first refer to an asymmetric combat mode that appeared in the 80s of the last century: flying, diving, and fast, that is, missile submarines and missile speedboats. Flying, diving, and fast are small countries or regional forces, and the asymmetric combat methods used to deal with big countries are mainly due to their relatively low cost and simple technical requirements than large combat platforms such as large ships, fighters, or bombers. In the 19080s, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait also adopted the mode of flying, diving, and fast to varying degrees. Therefore, in the 80 s of the 20 th century, the Taiwan region developed the Hsiung Feng missile, and actively procured submarines from other countries to develop speedboats that could carry missiles. However, although flying, diving, and fast are typical modes of asymmetric warfare, they have their limitations. Missile speedboats are not able to carry anti-ship missiles at a greater distance due to their small displacement. On the other hand, it is nothing more than carrying a sufficient number of anti-aircraft missiles. Therefore, it is difficult for missile boats to break through the enemy's large-scale fleet defense area, unless they are taken by surprise, take advantage of their unpreparedness, or have a sufficient number, such as dozens or hundreds of missile speedboats at the same time. On the other hand, missile boats do not have a long enough range and can only be used for coastal defense. In terms of submarines, small countries or regional armed forces do not have the ability to develop nuclear submarines, so they can only purchase conventionally powered submarines. For example, Vietnam purchased six Kilo-class submarines from Russia in 2009. In terms of conventionally powered submarines, the Kilo-class submarines were quite advanced at the time. 
It's just that the number is limited, and in the face of a big country like China, Kilo-class submarines are easily detected by anti-submarine patrol planes or local ship sonars, so they can be encircled and hunted. That's why, although Vietnam has purchased six Kilo-class submarines, China is not very concerned.
In addition, conventionally powered submarines have a limited incubation time underwater and a limited range. As for missiles, in the face of major forces, large countries have the ability to launch missiles to destroy the missile bases of small countries or regional armed forces first, because the big countries have more missiles and have a longer range. At this time, small countries can only go underground or mobile missiles to increase the probability of their survival. 2 New modes of warfare for small nationsHowever, times have changed, and today, more than 30 years later, small countries or regional armed forces have a new mode of operation: drones + rocket artillery + missiles. In addition, in today's geopolitical confrontation, there is another factor, the support of small countries or the big powers behind regional armed forces. In December 1991, the Soviet Union was declared dissolved. Since then, only the United States has been qualified to wage the most wars in the world. In fact, with the super military strength of the United States at that time, the United States did not need any first-class war, as long as the United States was not satisfied, it would directly send troops to fight. Look at the Kosovo War, the United States bombed the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia to the fullest, is the best example, the United States even dared to bomb the Chinese Embassy at that time, what else do you need for a war?In 2014, Russia's Putin ordered to send troops to Syria to assist the Assad regime in suppressing the rebels, and Putin's prestige was shocked, which broke the patent of the United States to fight the first human war. Since then, the situation in the Middle East has changed. 
On October 7, 2023, Hamas attacked Israel, causing heavy losses to Israel. We said in our comments on the previous day that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict revealed a new mode of warfare, which is UAVs + rocket artillery + missiles. With a new model of warfare, it is possible for small countries or regional armed forces to counter the military power of larger countries.
Hamas relies on rockets, a lot of rockets. This is in line with the "quantity" factor we mentioned earlier when describing the flying, diving, and fast combat modes. Hamas's rockets are: numerous, easy to carry (mobile), simple to make, and easy to stockpile. These four factors are quantitatively low-cost, fast production, and sufficient quantity. And the Houthis have the power of drones + missiles. Again, the above four factors are also present. Moreover, the Houthis control area is much larger than Hamas. In the last issue, we made a rough estimate from the scale on the map, and the area controlled by the Houthis is about 90,000 square kilometers, which is close to the area of 100,000 square kilometers in South Korea, which is enough for the Houthis to disperse and underground. With such an area area, coupled with light, fast and effective operations**, guerrilla warfare with the opponent country can play the role of small shrimp against big whales. 3 The Houthis have a geographical advantage in setting up ambushesCoincidentally, the Houthis also have an extra capital, and the Houthis have a geographical advantage in blockading the Red Sea - the Red Sea. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is 18 kilometers long and 25 to 32 kilometers wide, and such a narrow passage is the main sea communication route of the three oceans of the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans. However, passing ships are vulnerable to attack, and the Houthis are an ideal location for ambushes along the waterway. If the U.S. military or a combined fleet formation formed by the U.S. military cruises here, it will become a target for attack. 
Even if the Houthis do not strike merchant ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the entire Red Sea is about 2,000 kilometers long, and the range or range of Houthi drones and missiles is enough. In late October, the Houthis officially intervened in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by launching cruise missiles and drones across Saudi Arabia and Jordan to attack Israel, 2,200 kilometers away.
Therefore, the Houthis can face the Red Sea and spend all their time searching for passing merchant ships and **. The Houthi attack drones and missiles strike far enough, which breaks through the mode of small countries that fly, dive and fast in the 80s of the last century. 4 The cost of U.S. escorts is too highOn the other hand, it is not cost-effective for the United States to use Standard-2 missiles to intercept Houthi drones or rockets. The Standard-2 missile costs $2 million, and the Houthi drone or rocket costs $2,000, which is a 1,000-fold difference. Even if the Houthis use Iranian "Witness-136" attack drones (cruise missiles), which are worth $20,000, they are only one-tenth of the Standard-2 missile, which is a 100-fold difference. The United States has proudly threatened to intercept 38 Houthi drones with a 100% interception rate, but the cost-effectiveness ratio is 100 to 1,000 times, which is very uneconomical. The United States has a large economy and a large defense budget, so it can print money if necessary, and it can still intercept Houthi drones and missiles in an efficient way, but what about other countries?Follow you, the United States, to throw a lot of defense funds into the Red Sea?How many countries would like to do so?5 The Houthis can consume US missilesA simple calculation shows that a Burke-class destroyer in the United States carries 96 vertical-launch missiles, even if all 96 missiles are anti-aircraft missiles, 10 Burke-class destroyers have a total of 960 vertical-launch missiles, worth nearly $2 billion. But the Houthis only has 960 drones or missiles launched cheaply, which can easily consume the anti-aircraft missiles carried by the US team. What would it be like if the US destroyer ran out of missiles?It was like being a naked samurai, but without a sword or sword in his hand, without any **. Or like a lion without teeth. U.S. military ** wait to be beaten!
Therefore, it is not cost-effective for the United States to send a large number of ** to patrol the Red Sea to defend all passing merchant ships.
In addition, the Houthis also have the advantage of time, they can choose any time and any location in the Red Sea to carry out strikes against passing merchant ships, how can the US military patrol the Red Sea of more than 2,000 kilometers?On the first day of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, we proposed a new combat model of drones + rocket artillery + missiles, which can be used by small countries or armed forces against large forces. In particular, when there is the support of a large country behind it, it is necessary to provide such ** or required parts. And the Houthis are able to produce drones, rocket artillery and missiles on their own. The new mode of warfare for small countries will be a headache for large countries. 6 ConclusionThe Houthis want to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the blockade of the Red Sea has a number of advantages. As long as one or two ships can be sunk, global merchant ships will not dare to pass through this area. Moreover, it will also "cooperate" with the shipping company. In such a situation, the shipping company can announce a price increase and take a detour. Of course, airlines and insurers will take this opportunity to pull up the top and make a lot of money, how can they let go of this opportunity?Finally, it has been argued that when the Houthis blockade of the Red Sea, China was also affected. Yes, China is the world's largest country, and there are many merchant ships passing through the Red Sea, which will of course be affected. But we have to look at things in a comparative way. 
If this passage is blocked, merchant ships from all over the world will have to make a detour, and China's merchant ships will be affected, will Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and India's merchant ships not be affected?
When everyone's merchant ships are affected, there is no difference, global shipping and transportation costs, unfortunate are those who need a large number of goods from abroad, the United States and European countries. Prices in the United States and Europe will be **, and inflation will rise again. Even if the United States and European countries reduce the import of goods because of high prices and higher inflation, it will have an impact on all exporting countries. This time, the US maritime empire is going to be planted here, and it has become a dilemma if it is not to fight (Houthis) or not to fight. After a long time, the name of maritime hegemony really has to be planted. 100 help plan