Yang Zhen is the deputy director of the Center for Northeast Asian Studies at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law.
The repercussions of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have spread to the seas, with several merchant ships being attacked by Yemen's Houthi rebels in the waters of the Red Sea. As a result of the attacks, a number of shipping giants, including MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd, have announced the suspension of their voyages in the Red Sea.
These four companies have a combined 53% share of the global container shipping market, which means that more than half of international shipping no longer passes through the Red Sea. The Houthis said they would continue to obstruct the navigation of "Israeli ships" in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea until Israel ceased its military operations in the Gaza Strip. Egypt's Suez Canal Authority said it was "closely monitoring" tensions over the Red Sea and the impact on the canal transit.
As an important force that can survive and continue to grow in the Middle East, the "land of four wars", the Houthis have a clear strategic goal in this move.
First of all, to combat US hegemony in the seas. US hegemony is based on control of the global oceans. The Houthis' repeated attacks on merchant ships are not only an attempt to show that the United States is no longer able to control this key part of the Red Sea, but also to show the world that the United States' ability to provide maritime public security products has declined and that it is not worthy of being a maritime hegemon.
Second, respond to Hamas. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have entered Gaza, and Hamas is under intense military pressure. The Houthi attack on merchant ships in the Red Sea not only prevents Israel from obtaining resources from the outside world, but also hits Israel's economy and greatly affects its war spending**.
Finally, seek political capital for yourself. On February 28, 2022, the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 2624, which defined the Houthis in Yemen as a "terrorist organization" for the first time and extended sanctions against them. As a military force of 200,000 troops, the Houthis have never been able to have a legal identity. In the Middle East, armed resistance to Israel is "politically correct", and the Houthis hope that this move will gain political capital and pave the way for international recognition in the future.
The current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has had obvious spillover effects from the very beginning. At the regional level, as the myth of the invincibility of the Israeli army has been shattered, Middle Eastern countries have "besieged" Israel in various forms - Allah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Syria, Houthis in Yemen, and Palestinian forces in the West Bank have taken turns to attack Israel. The fragile balance between Israel's military quality superiority and the Arab States' scale advantage is upset, and the Middle East is set for an even more turbulent future.
At the global level, just after the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Ukrainian army encountered a huge crisis of reduced Western aid in the Ukraine crisis. In addition, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has had a significant impact on the global economy. The world's most important container route is the Asia-Europe route. The attack led to the suspension of sailings in the Red Sea, which will lead to a longer voyage time on the Asia-Europe route, which generally takes 30-50 days to sail from Asian ports to European ports, and if the Red Sea-Bab el-Mandeb Strait is impassable, all ships that originally passed through the Red Sea-Suez Canal will bypass the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, which will increase the sailing time by about 7-14 days. The original 12 ships can operate an Asia-Europe route, but now it may take 15, and shipping companies need more ships to supplement their capacity. This is undoubtedly bad news for a global economy that is highly dependent on sea routes. In addition, the drought is hampering traffic in the Panama Canal. This double whammy is forcing shippers to consider detours to longer and more expensive routes in Africa and South America to avoid surprises. On December 15, the International Chamber of Shipping condemned the Houthi attack, saying it "threatens the lives of innocent seafarers and the safety of merchant ships". The agency noted that the transfer of shipping between Europe and Asia, from the Red Sea to the Cape of Good Hope via the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, will increase costs and lead to delays. S&P Global, a consultancy, estimates that the detour will increase the distance between Rotterdam and Singapore by 40%.
The deepening of the Red Sea crisis may lead to changes in the strategic pattern of world sea power.
As already mentioned, Houthi attacks on merchant ships have the intention of destabilizing US maritime hegemony, and the US will be forced to react. According to Reuters 19**, U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin announced in Bahrain in the early hours of Tuesday local time that in response to the Houthi attack on ships in the Red Sea, the United States is working with relevant countries to launch escort operations and carry out joint patrol missions in the southern part of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Currently, countries that have agreed to join the campaign include the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain, Austin said. A U.S.**, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that some countries had agreed to join the operation but would not be publicly named. According to US media, the Red Sea escort operation will be coordinated by the "Task Force 153", which was established in April last year, and has a total of 39 members. Combined with the "naval alliance" called for by the commander of the Iranian Navy in early June this year, the confrontation situation in the world sea power system has greatly accelerated. And this Red Sea crisis will become a landmark event.
The Red Sea crisis will also exacerbate tensions between the United States and Iran. U.S.-Iran relations have been hostile since 1979, from the embassy hostage crisis to the seizure of a U.S. cruise ship by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps navy, a confrontation that continues from the Cold War to the present day. Moreover, the United States has publicly accused Iran of being a backer of the Houthis, in connection with the current Red Sea crisis. Therefore, the United States is likely to take hostile actions against Iran, which in turn will inevitably be countered by Iran. In this spiraling confrontation, the Red Sea crisis may become the fuse of the contradictions between the United States and Iran.
If the United States were to strike at the Houthis on land, it would not only be useless, but would also make the situation even more unfavorable to the United States, which is the greatest dilemma facing the United States and its allies, and is the evil consequence of the hegemonism that the United States has to reap its own needs.
Editor: Tang Hua, Jiang Xinyu, Zhang Yanling.