Text: Yang Guoying.
Uncontained, China's involution is rolling to the world.
This week, our event in Malaysia was held as scheduled, the pace of work was busy, and the original update was a bit untimely and sloppy, so forgive me.
Malaysia is a cross-section of the current round of Chinese capital to accelerate the sea, and now Malaysia, because of the acceleration of Chinese capital to go to sea, all walks of life are full of vitality.
Of course, for different industries, the dividend space is different, such as construction, building materials, machinery and other traditional industries, the current dividends are still there, but the fact has begun to replicate the trajectory of China in the past 10 years, began to accelerate the involution.
The emerging mid-to-high-end manufacturing industry, now domestic enterprises are also accelerating to go to sea, such as semiconductors, new energy and quite supporting industries, these industries are accompanied by the expected acceleration of going to sea, I personally believe that its dividend period should be clearly narrowed after five or six years.
This is a clear signal that China's involution is rolling to the world.
Yes, for 90% of the industries, after Chinese capital goes abroad, it will roll up now or in the future.
However, even if it is expected that it will be rolled up at the present or in the future, the current Chinese capital can only or even must go out - go to sea and go abroad, so that you can enjoy a bonus period of five or six years, and you will not go abroad if you don't go to sea, for 90% of the industry, the current domestic has been rolled up to the waist, and if you continue to roll up, you will be rolled up to the neck.
For 90% of the industry, only by going to sea and going abroad can it be possible not to be swept up in the end, and it is possible to further strengthen the industry through local globalization.
Only by further strengthening, even if Malaysia or ASEAN is also involved in the future, it is possible to continue to track the global industrial chain cycle to do technology and integration upgrades, and it is also possible to continue to follow the changes in the global industrial chain and do further dynamic migration.
The event was held in Malaysia, and the focus was not on Malaysia itself (of course, Malaysia has the cultural heritage of Chinese, its geographical proximity, and the relative factor cost and institutional advantages of high-end industries), but on establishing a global outlook and judging China's global outlook based on the global - which is indispensable for today's global asset allocation.
Said it was this event, in fact, there were very few friends who participated in the event, which was of course a bit unexpected, there were 26 people who were originally determined to participate, but last week it was suddenly reported that the epidemic in Malaysia was repeated, which scared more than 10 friends to withdraw temporarily, and the assistant told me that within half a day of the event, the Malaysian epidemic scared away 2 friends.
So, I am very grateful to the friends who finally participated in this event, and it is really touching that you risked your "lives" to participate in our event.
Of course, this is caused by one-way Internet transmission, one-way Internet transmission will inevitably lead to information distortion,—— last week, the domestic spread of the Malaysian epidemic is like a big enemy, in fact, local friends are calm as usual, we departed to Kuala Lumpur on Monday, the airport ** is like weaving, queuing for entry even more than two hours.
Below I share a few ** of the two-day event:
Visited the China-Malaysia Friendship Association and exchanged views with Datuk Majid, the former Malaysian ambassador to China
Visit the Chinese Assembly Hall to remember the hardships of the Chinese predecessors on the road to sea and their adherence to Chinese culture).
Visited the Malaysian industrial park operator Lvshengshi, where Baosteel has a project landed).
Visit Huawei Malaysia, Huawei Malaysia Ye Dong communicated with us).
Visiting CSCEC Malaysia, Mr. Zhang of CSCEC Malaysia shared with us the dry goods of going overseas, especially through the dynamic observation of the local construction industry to accelerate the changes in the industrial structure of going to sea).
Visited NCT, the operator of the Malaysian industrial park, whose industrial operation concept is very cutting-edge, and the chairman of the board of directors, Datuk Seri Yap Yin Cai, is a local Chinese entrepreneur who is very energetic and very friendly).
Let's talk about today's market.
, e-commerce has entered the Red Sea, and "refund only" has become the standard configuration of Jingdong.
According to the information on the official website, from December 26, the new platform dispute handling rules will be officially implemented, and the new rules will add support for functions such as "quick refund, refund only";JD.com has also recently updated the "JD Open Platform Transaction Dispute Settlement Rules", officially solidifying the "refund only" service, in addition, in September this year, Douyin e-commerce also selectively supported the "refund only" rule.
"Refund only" first emerged in Pinduoduo, which refers to the fact that when there is a quality problem with the product, consumers can apply for a refund without returning, which is evaluated as a "double-edged sword", on the one hand, it can quickly attract the support of consumers;On the other hand, it also increases the cost and risk of merchants, and even provides opportunities for the "wool party" and "white prostitution party", and many businesses are deeply troubled.
With the increase in support for "refund only", it can be seen that the e-commerce competition has entered a white-hot stage, and the balance between platform attractiveness and business governance ecology has also ushered in challenges under the shirtless battle.
An undeniable trend is that in the current consumption environment, the phenomenon of "involution" is becoming more and more serious, which is not only reflected in the "low price" war between platforms, but also the further grabbing of merchants by platforms.
We believe that the development path of China's e-commerce will be more rugged in the future, and the efforts to obtain the same benefits may be ten times or a hundred times that of the "first era" of e-commerce.
Since the beginning of this year, the enthusiasm of Chinese enterprises to invest in Vietnam has continued to rise.
According to the data of the Ministry of Planning and Investment, there are currently 4,032 Chinese investment projects in Vietnam, with a total registered capital of more than 26 billion US dollars, ranking sixth among the 144 countries and regions investing in Vietnam.
At present, China's investment in Vietnam is mainly concentrated in the fields of processing and manufacturing, real estate and power production, and the larger investment projects include: Ling**kou Processing Zone, Longjiang Industrial Park, Shenzhen-Haiphong Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone, Sailun (Vietnam)**Rainbow Group, Shenzhou International, Luxshare Precision, Lens Technology, Vietnam Photovoltaic, Vinh Tan Thermal Power Plant, etc.
There are three main reasons why Chinese companies continue to increase their investment in Vietnam: First, these industries are China's advantageous industries and have the ability and experience to invest overseasSecondly, Vietnam has advantages in terms of policy, manpower and land, which can complement Chinese enterprises in these industrial fieldsFinally, these industries are also needed for the transformation of Vietnam's current industrial structure, and the policy tilt is obvious.
According to the report of the Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam on attracting foreign direct investment funds, as of November 20, 2023, the total amount of new foreign direct investment signed, capital increase and financing to purchase shares reached 28.8 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 148%, in terms of the number of projects, China leads in the number of newly approved investment projects, accounting for 221%。
However, it is not a smooth road for Chinese companies to invest in Vietnam, and there are some shortcomings in the Vietnamese market, first of all, the local electricity problem is often criticizedSecondly, the imperfection of the local ** chain is also a major constraint;Third, the tax rate has also been adjusted recentlyFinally, from the perspective of the policy environment, the Vietnamese market is still wary of investment in China's dominant industries.
Satellite communication technology has become a new focus for car companies.
In October this year, Geely Holdings' ZEEKR brand ZEEKR 001FR achieved the first mass production of satellite communication on the car, it is reported that with the help of the pre-installed on-board satellite communication terminal - Geetime Xun, with the on-board satellite communication antenna and software services, the model has realized two-way satellite messaging and call functions, and has taken the lead in becoming a global mass-produced satellite communication passenger car.
Following the successful launch of the "Geely Future Constellation" in June last year and the stable operation in orbit for more than a year, Geely announced yesterday that it will launch 02 groups of 11 satellites, including "Geely Galaxy" and "Remote Stargazing", in early 2024, a measure aimed at further improving Geely's "space-ground integration" intelligent travel ecology.
Coincidentally, at the 2023 Science and Technology Ecology Conference in September this year, Changan Automobile displayed the first product of the new E0 series, the CD701 prototype, which is equipped with "on-board satellite communication" technology, which can achieve global coverage and networking at any time through ground orbit satellites.
The introduction of satellite communication technology will undoubtedly improve the safety of car driving and smart travel experience, in today's developed technology, whether it is a mobile phone or a car, it is not difficult to connect directly to satellites, the difficulty is how to achieve commercialization, whether to ensure the stability of the signal, and whether the cost and convenience can be accepted by consumers.
In addition, next year will be a cross-border year, and the integration of the automotive industry, the ICT information and communication industry, and the energy industry will also enter a period of deep integration.
The issuance scale of the new ** month is exceeded100 million yuan.
Although December has not yet ended, the scale of new ** issuance this month has exceeded 170 billion yuan, a new high since July last year.
According to Choice data, as of December 27, 131 new ** have been established since December, and the issuance scale has reached 17541.6 billion yuan, and since the beginning of this year, the scale of new ** issuance exceeded 100 billion yuan for the first time for two consecutive months, and it was 1310 in November9.7 billion yuan.
From the perspective of the types of newly established bonds in December, there are frequent "big guys" in bonds, including Huaan China Bond 0-3 Year Government and Financial Bond Index, Penghua Fengjing Bond, GF China Bond 0-2 Year Government and Financial Bond Index, Bosera Jinyuan Interest Rate Bond, Harvest Zhiyu Pure Bond and other bond-based issuance scale of about 8 billion yuan.
At the same time, the equity category** also showed positive signals, specifically, the issuance scale of Harvest CSI Guoxin Central Enterprises Modern Energy ETF Connection** was 555.8 billion yuan, Bosera SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 100 ETF connection** issuance scale of 178.8 billion yuan, and the issuance scale of ChinaAMC ChiNext Mid-Cap 200 ETF is 111.7 billion yuan.
In addition, active equity** also frequently emerges products with a scale of more than 1 billion yuan, for example, the mixed scale of Yongying Ruixin is 145.2 billion yuan, SDIC UBS Shengxuan mixed scale of 140.3 billion yuan, the Great Wall balanced growth mixed scale also exceeded 1 billion yuan.
It is worth mentioning that **managers and **managers are also actively purchasing their own new shares, for example, Yongying** invested 10 million yuan to subscribe for Yongying Ruixin hybrid class A shares, and SDIC UBS Shengxuan mixed **manager subscribed** shares of more than 1 million shares.
To sum up, the issuance market began to heat up, whether it was a bond base, or an equity issuance market is on the rise, with the follow-up incremental funds entering the market and the manager actively subscribing to its products, revealing that investors' confidence in A-shares began to increase.