I'm going to talk about three things in today's article: the dot plot, Powell's **, and where can the gold price be bullish in the future?
First of all, the dot plot, I think you have seen it, I still have to release it, one is to facilitate your comparison, the other is to look at me more professionally, more do not look, too messy, the left is the dot plot in September, and the right is the latest dot plot released in December.
As shown in the chart above, the most obvious is the two expectations for the high point of interest rates in 2024, all of which are expected to remain at the current level of 55% is the final value, and most of them expect interest rate cuts next year. This bluntly reveals that the "interest rate cut phase" that the Fed was unwilling to discuss has been put on the agenda, and there are preliminary plans;**After the dot plot was announced, the fact that it began to rise without looking back can be illustrated that the feedback from the market is very direct, you turn the pigeon, I am happy, and it is in line with my expectations, I will follow the influence of this fact to buy.
Half an hour later, Powell began to speak, and in three sentences, inflation has eased, but it is still at a high level, and the unemployment rate has not risen significantly. At the beginning, these words still sound quite hawkish, in line with his usual style, so, the market did not unexpectedly feedback on this, gold prices continue to climb, later, when Powell is still repeating the remarks in "interest rate hikes if necessary", the market has not fluctuated, but what everyone did not expect is that after Powell will go through the scene, he will be so direct, so straightforward to say the decision of "no more interest rate hikes", and even discuss when to cut interest rates. This is very different from the previous attitude of Powell and the Fed, which had weakened the rally**, and also broke through the top-down conversion level of 2017 and closed on top. To be honest, I was quite surprised, I didn't report any hope of transferring pigeons with Powell, so I paused the opening of the position last night, which means that we are the same now, but the signal I have always wanted to see to stop falling and reverse has been given, and next, I am going to catch the next **.
From 1980 to the current around 2035, this rally is a ** in the eyes of bears, and in the eyes of me, a person who insists on being long, he is a reversal, I know there is controversy now, but when has this market not been controversial?To be honest, now to discuss what ups and downs, the cycle is a bit long, because the next thing to talk about is the appropriate time to cut interest rates, and this matter, to cooperate with the Fed's other ** new views to speculate, and now, the market is in the yin and fall, just ended in time, up to 2144 has not yet come to the happy bulls have been disgusted by the continuous decline of 170 points to the present, just relieved, do you think he will easily let go of this good opportunity to release emotions?
I have already made a long order in 2030 anyway, and I have just sprinted to 2040, ** to 2036 near the position, the stop loss is placed at 2025, you can give the opportunity you can try it, but I don't force it, don't say anything else, see you in the live broadcast in the evening. I'm going to get off work to buy a military coat to protect myself from the cold, and now the weather is getting colder and colder, and you should also protect yourself.
Detailed trading ideas and follow-up processing of orders will be shared with real customers according to real-time**. The live broadcast time starts at 20:20 every trading day, and the live broadcast address can be obtained by private message.
Disclaimer: The above is only a personal opinionIt does not constitute investment advice. Investors act accordingly at their own risk. The article has a lag and is for readers' reference only, investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.