Standing at a crossroads provokes a massive economic stimulus package

Mondo Cars Updated on 2024-01-19

Standing at the crossroads of history, ChinaEconomyWe are facing enormous challenges and choices. Currently, ChinaEconomyFacing the pressure of a downward trend, October data showedEconomyFour months of weak recovery have been interrupted, and this is a systemic problem. The data showed that GDP fell to 4 year-on-year in the third quarter9%, social fixed asset investment, real estate development investment, real estate sales and other indicators have shown a sharp negative growth, showing that many industrial enterprises are in a state of loss. The root of the problem lies in dualityEconomyThe misallocation of resources caused by the structure has led to the flow of resources to inefficient state-owned enterprises, while at the same time, efficient private enterprises have become rats crossing the street. This problem needs to be solved, otherwise it cannot be achievedEconomysustainable development. Even more grimDebtThe problem has become prominent, and various localities have begun to issue special treasury bonds to solve their local financial difficulties. This is inevitable, not a shift in the so-called proactive fiscal policy to substance.

The debt problem has begun to affect the normal functioning of the local government, and the comparison of debt ratios between different countries is not very meaningful, and it is important to recognize the seriousness of the debt problem. What we're seeing now is only superficialDebtIt is impossible to measure the recessivenessDebtof the scale. RecessiveDebtIt doesn't decrease, but it stacks continuously. At present, the local fiscal revenue that relies on real estate can no longer meet the expenditure demand, and the local government has to continue to borrow. The outlook for the real estate market is uncertain, and there is no certainty that sales will pick up significantly. withEconomyThe decline in the growth rate,Debtwill continue to accumulate, and hiddenDebtwill also surface, and it will be a big challenge at that point. Therefore, on a large scaleEconomyThe launch of the stimulus package can almost be described as a high probability event.

However, this timeEconomyThe stimulus package is different than it used to be. It is not intended to be a stimulusEconomyhigh growth, but hedged by creating a currency bubbleHousing bubble, dispersing the sunk capital of the wealthy and diluting the enormousDebt。Among them, the property market will liberalize the upper limit of land auctions**, and the new real estate reform will makeCommercial housingReturn to commodities, while affordable housing will continue to be available to those in need. In this way, the real estate market will no longer restrict the rich from having enough capital to enter the first-tier cities, and the affordable housing will ensure the residential needs of low-income people. In the face of prolonged inflationary pressures, this move will effectively stem the loss of capital and keep those who remain high in the banksNet worthHouseholds choose how they want to use their capital: whether to invest it or invest it in heavy assets in first-tier cities, or wait for the inevitable devaluation. This will be in ChinaEconomy, a series of changes.

It is expected that by 2024, ChinaEconomyIt will enter a high-growth phase. To achieve this, we need to focusPrivate economyThe current state of development. Currently, China'sPrivate economyFaced with seriousOvercapacityquestion, which will makePrivate economyIt is not possible to achieve true growth. It can only be achieved through a reshuffle of survival of the fittestPrivate economyof the overall improvement. In addition,Private economyprosperity with our countryEconomyThe quality of the indicator is closely related. Therefore, I think the implementation of large-scaleEconomyThe stimulus plan is a high-probability event.

InEconomyIn 2024, when the situation has changed dramatically, I believe that the frequent high-level contacts between China and the United States and the arrival of the end of the Fed's interest rate hike will be for ChinaEconomyThe development of the opening is off to a good start. ChinaEconomyThe future is full of uncertainties and opportunities, and we need to go all out to seize every opportunity to promote ChinaEconomyTake it to the next level.

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