Today is Saturday (December 16, 2023), and we will talk about the international developments of urea**.
The highest reduction of 178 yuan tons, following last week's large-scale downward adjustment, at the beginning and middle of this week, the international urea market continued to decline, with a decline of more than 10-25 US dollars tons
Among them Croatian small particles$10 ton;Large particles in the Black Sea$20 per ton;CIF prices for large and small particles in Brazil$10-15 per ton;FOB Iran large grain ports$20-25 per ton;Equivalent to RMB 25 US dollars = 178 yuan tons (RMB).
As of December 23: Chinese market: small particlesFOB prices are in the range of $350-355 Ton(equivalent to RMB: 2496-2531 yuan tons).Large particlesPort FOB 365-370 USD ton(equivalent to RMB: 2603-2638 yuan tons).
International market: small particlesMainstream offshore** inUSD tons(equivalent to RMB: 1854-2246 yuan tons) international marketLarge particle offshore mainstream**at 290-335 US dollars ton (equivalent to RMB: 2068-2389 yuan ton).
I thought that with the arrival of Christmas, the market would continue to be weak under the influence of the holiday atmosphere, but unexpectedly, India released a new round of urea import bidding in advance (December 21, 2023) (ending on January 4, 2024, valid until January 15, 2024, the latest shipping date is February 29, 2024) At present, there are rumors in the market: India may purchase 1 million tons in this round of bidding, and it is also rumored that it may recruit 50-750,000 tons. Although the final result will have to wait until January 4, 2024, this news has prompted some of the markets including the Black Sea, Mexico, the United States and other regions to stop falling, and even some of the low-end ** to appear slightly**!
In terms of production costs - natural gas (about 80% of urea production in the international market depends on natural gas): On Thursday, European natural gas rose by more than 5%, and the European benchmark - Dutch natural gas in the near month was once 13%. European natural gas** posted its biggest gain in two months after bp announced it would suspend all tankers crossing the region due to a spate of attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea. According to related reports, the current global natural gas is facing circulation pressure - the two main shipping routes for transporting liquefied natural gas are blocked, the Suez Canal cannot connect Europe and Asia due to the Red Sea turmoil, and the shipping between the East and Asia is paralyzed because of the Panama Canal, which will increase the liquidity pressure of global natural gas. However, with the easing of the war and conflict and the change of weather, there are still many uncertainties in the future!
Outlook: Costs aside, India's second round of import tenders may "block" the international market** from potentially broadening the market**, and some regions** could see a further recovery if the final bid price allows. In particular, the surplus urea from Russia and the Middle East will find a way out in this tender in India.
As of December 22, the mainstream of urea in China has left the factory**: 2350-2450 yuan for small particles and 2400-2550 yuan for large grains.
Among them: 2380-2400 yuan tons in Shandong, 2550 yuan tons of large particles;In Henan, small and medium-sized particles are about 2380-2430 yuan tons, large particles are 2400 yuan tons, and small particles in Hebei are reported to be 2370-2380 yuan tonsAnhui small particles 2400-2480 yuan tons;Jiangsu small and medium-sized particles ex-factory **2480 yuan ton;Large particles are reported at 2530 yuan tons, and small particles in Hubei are about 2400-2470 yuan tons;Shanxi small particles 2260-2330 yuan tons, large particles ex-factory **2350-2400 yuan tons;Shaanxi small and medium-sized particles 2300-2350 yuan tons;
At present, domestic and foreign ** is still upside down around 300-400 yuan tons.
Since China's urea export restrictions may continue until the first quarter of 2024, and the current domestic ** is still higher than that of foreign countries, ** does not have export advantages, so the impact of this printing on the domestic market is very limited, or it will cause a certain boost psychologically.