Reporter Zhao Enting.
If Trump hadn't run, I'm not sure I would. At a fundraiser on December 5, 2023, 81-year-old Biden said something from the bottom of his heart, his goal is to "not let Trump win."
However, this is not an easy task for Biden. According to a recent poll, 67 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents want another candidate to replace Biden in the primaries, and 70 percent are concerned about Biden's age, health and ability to handle work.
U.S. ** Biden greets the crowd as he attends an event in Washington, D.C., April 25, 2023.
Not only that, but polls at the one-year countdown show that Biden's support rating in 5 of the 6 "swing states" is inferior to the 77-year-old former Republican Trump, 4 to 9 percentage points behind, including Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and only Wisconsin leads by 2 percentage points.
In addition to Nevada, the other five states were taken by Trump in 2016** but were overturned by Biden in 2020**. If Biden wants to be re-elected, he must win a majority of "swing states" in 2024**.
Before the decisive battle, it is not difficult for Biden and Trump to emerge from the Democratic and Republican primaries. As the incumbent, there is little suspense that Biden will win the party nomination. Trump's support for other Republican candidates has long remained at tens of percentage points, and it is almost certain that he will represent the Republican Party again.
In January 2024, Iowa and New Hampshire will start their primaries. March 5 will be Super Tuesday, with 15 states holding primaries on that day. In July and August, both parties will nominate ** candidates. The biggest variable is the four criminal charges Trump faces on 91 counts. Separately, House Republicans have launched Biden's ** investigation, while Trump has been ruled ineligible by the Colorado Supreme Court to run in the Republican primary.
U.S. ex-Trump drives a golf cart at Trump Turnberry Golf Course in Turnberry, Scotland, May 2, 2023.
At present, Biden's domestic and foreign affairs are under pressure, "Bidennomics" is unpopular, and the United States is in a dilemma between the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The Republican Party is constantly fighting, and in 2023, there will be two "difficult birth" farces in the election of the speaker of the House of Representatives, both because of the obstruction of the ultra-hardliners in the party who support Trump. The bipartisan struggle intensified, with the debt ceiling crisis and the "shutdown" crisis not being lifted until the last minute.
In addition to the delicate showdown between Biden and Trump, the Democratic and Republican parties will also fight fiercely over control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, and in 2024** one-third of the Senate seats and all the seats in the House of Representatives will be re-elected.
With the support of three independent senators, the Democratic camp has a 51-49 seat advantage over Republicans in the Senate. In 2024**, the Democratic camp has 23 seats to be re-elected, including three independent senators, while the Republicans have only 10 seats to be re-elected. At present, the Republican Party has only a few seats in the House of Representatives over the Democrats. This means that there is pressure and opportunity for both parties, but the Democrats, who seek to keep the Senate, are under more pressure.
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