Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has always held a position against Ukraine's accession to the European Union. However, at the request of Zelensky in Ukraine, the EU had to compromise with Orban and unfreeze 10.2 billion euros in aid funds to Hungary. This huge amount of money is seen as a change of language fee for Orban in the hope of changing his position on Ukraine's accession to the European Union. Orban accepted the aid but continued to oppose Ukraine's accession to the European Union, saying only that he supported Ukraine's accession and opposed the start of formal accession talks. This opposition to changing the soup without changing the medicine has greatly reduced the expectations of the European Union for him.
The aid money is not only a compromise for Orban, but also to avoid a political crisis at the EU summit. At the summit, EU leaders considered formal negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU and financial assistance to Ukraine, both of which Orban strongly opposed. Failure to make a decision at this critical juncture could lead to a heightened divide within the EU and a political crisis. As a result, the EU had to compromise with Orban and unfreeze the 10.2 billion euros in aid to Hungary in exchange for his change of words. However, with Orban's opposition not really changing, the EU's disappointment with him is understandable.
As early as a few years ago, the European Commission froze tens of billions of euros in aid to Hungary because Hungary did not comply with the EU's principles of the rule of law. This has led to tensions between Orban and high-level EU officials such as von der Leyen. However, at the upcoming EU summit, the European Commission decided to unfreeze part of the 10.2 billion euros in aid to Hungary due to consideration of Ukraine's EU accession negotiations and financial assistance, in order to show its recognition of Hungary's measures to strengthen the independence of the judiciary. At the same time, the European Commission said it would continue to monitor Hungary's implementation and reserve the right to freeze funds again if the conditions were not met.
Speaking in his speech, Orban said that the EU made exceptions to the rules on Ukraine's accession to the EU and did not comply with the rules of the EU. He believes that Ukraine's accession will have devastating consequences for European farmers, the EU budget and European security, and is not in the interests of Hungary and the EU. Therefore, he opposes the start of formal negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the European Union.
The draft declaration of the EU summit sent a positive signal, recommending the start of formal negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova on EU accession, and pledging to continue to provide Ukraine with support for urgent military and defense needs.
However, this is only a draft declaration, not a final declaration, and there are still variables. Orban received 10.2 billion euros in aid funds, but he changed his ways to oppose Ukraine's accession to the European Union. He insisted that Ukraine had not yet met the conditions for accession negotiations and therefore opposed the start of negotiations. This means that Ukraine cannot join the EU, which is equivalent to a direct opposition to Ukraine's accession to the EU.
Hungary, which had hoped for 30 billion euros in financial assistance from the European Union, has now received 10.2 billion euros. However, Orban continues to oppose Ukraine's accession to the European Union, and his attitude has not changed. EU leaders were disappointed. The EU summit will conclude on December 15, when it will be possible to see the EU's attitude towards Ukraine's accession to the EU and the sanctions against Hungary. Whether or not to launch formal accession negotiations and financial assistance to Ukraine will affect intra-EU relations and Ukraine's future development. This will also be an important turning point in the relationship between the EU and Ukraine, and we will wait and see.