Like an AI chatbot, it can see through the essence while laughing and constantly updating
1.Q:Warren Buffett and Munger's investment system requires a rough estimate of the company's free cash flow in the next few years, which requires brain power and sweat, which is a disadvantage. May I ask if Ge Lao doesn't need to estimate, does it cost him his brain power and sweat?
Ben replied:Don't say it, Ge Lao's cigarette butt stock system AI can definitely be replaced. You really don't need any brainpower, it's just a statistical job.
2.Q:Watching the market is a compulsory course for investment, but as the investment period increases, will changing the weekly watch to the monthly watch reduce the impact of market fluctuations on your own sentiment?After all, no matter how many years you have been in the market, how to face market volatility is an eternal topic.
Ben replied:You can do that. But I think you should understand that your ultimate goal is not to not look at it, but to watch it every day without feeling it.
3.Q:Suppose I buy a good company (such as Tencent Moutai) with a low P/E ratio (about 10 times)**When the P/E ratio returns to a reasonable range (25-30 times, long-term holding), the profit growth of the company itself has a lot of credit, but in fact, the P/E ratio growth is not a small credit
Ben replied:The shorter the time, the greater the factor of P/E ratio fluctuations;The longer the time, the greater the factor for the growth of corporate earnings.
4.Q:What are the defects of most backtests?Is it because history doesn't simply repeat itself?
Ben replied:The most common mistake to make in backtesting is overfitting, and the more conditions you require, the less likely it is to repeat exactly in the future.
5.Q:We invest in owning equity, but the money we throw out will go back to the bank, so if the bank goes bankrupt, will it have an impact on our investment?
Ben replied:There is deposit insurance for less than 500,000 in China. Larger banks actually have national credit guarantees. If you really don't feel at ease, choose the four major lines.
6.Q:Remember that Peter Lynch's holdings were huge, and the news reports said that there was no ** he didn't love, and the trading volume was very large;Schloss also praised Lynch for being a good stock picker, but he would be exhausted to death if he were to resemble him. Lynch must have been tired and retired early. It is speculated that Lynch is primarily a cigarette butt stock. Is this speculation correct?
Ben replied:He's really not a cigarette butt, he's really working hard, and there are too many companies that he pays attention to and researches.
7.Q:Ah shares, Hong Kong stocks** are generally lower than A shares**, is it because Hong Kong's ** debt interest rate is high or there are many investment channels, so the risk-free rate of return is better?Further, when using free cash flow to value a company, different multiples (the inverse of the risk-free rate of return) should be used for AH shares, with higher multiples for A shares and lower for H shares. When no?
Ben replied:I do not know. I'm not going to do that, and I'm not trying to guess how many times the market is willing to give or will give a P/E ratio.