According to a survey of 14 analysts by the London Exchange, Tesla will deliver about 1.82 million vehicles globally in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 37%.Of these, about 47 were delivered in the fourth quarter30,000 units. Although Tesla's full-year deliveries may hit a new high, it is still below Musk's ambitious target of 2 million vehicles at the beginning of the year.
In the coming 2024, Tesla may face triple pressures: First, some models will lose tax credits in the United States and Germany;Second, the United States and some European countries have stepped up regulatory scrutiny of their autonomous driving systems and other componentsThird, the Model 3 and the recently launched Cyber Truck are not enough to boost demand.
According to Reuters, a survey of 14 analysts by the London ** Exchange (LSEG) showed that Tesla's global deliveries in 2023 will be about 1.82 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 37%;Of these, about 47 were delivered in the fourth quarter30,000 units. "In terms of Tesla's deliveries, the fourth quarter is usually the strongest of the year, and we expect that to happen again this year. Garrett Nelson, senior analyst at CFRA Research, said.
While Tesla's full-year deliveries may hit a new high, they are still below the ambitious target set by its CEO Elon Musk at the beginning of the year. In January, Musk had said that without force majeure, Tesla could achieve 2 million deliveries for the whole year. But in October, he warned that rising borrowing costs were putting pressure on demand.
In the face of weak sales, Tesla took advantage of its profit margin advantage in 2023 to significantly reduce the prices of its four models globally. Especially in the Chinese market, Tesla has cut prices many times, and some analysts believe that the reason is that the market share is being stolen by local companies such as BYD.
On the other hand, in the U.S. market, as the "first-class war" intensifies and the demand for electric vehicles slows, some automakers, including Ford Motor, have withdrawn their electrification plans. As a result, Tesla became the undisputed leader and helped more than double its growth.
Entering 2024, Tesla will face the problem of losing tax credits for some models in the United States and Germany, and Germany** will end its EV subsidies ahead of schedule, which may force Tesla to cut prices further next year. While interest rates and battery raw material costs are expected to ease, Tesla's overall profit margins may decline.
Daiwa Capital Markets analyst Jairam Nathan lowered his estimate of Tesla's deliveries next year to 2.04 million from 2.14 million. "The big model shows that Tesla's average sales revenue per car will decline by 4% year-on-year in 2024. Nathan said.
It is worth mentioning that Tesla will also respond to the United States and some European countries by increasing regulatory scrutiny of its self-driving system and other components. Earlier this month, Tesla recalled almost all of its 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads to install new safety measures.
Emmanuel Rosner, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, said: "Tesla candidly admits that the company is currently in a period of low- to medium-speed growth. He quoted a conversation with Martin Viecha, Tesla's head of investor relations, during a meeting.
In addition, a survey by data analytics platform Visible Alpha shows that most analysts believe that the Model 3 and the recently launched Cyber Truck are not enough to boost demand. Investors expect the company's margins to remain under pressure as Tesla ramps up production of cybertrucks and plans to launch cheaper vehicle platforms.
Tom Narayan, a capital markets analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said that by 2024, Cyber Truck sales will account for 3% of Tesla's total sales. "Cybertrucks are more of a product with a 'halo' that may attract consumers to buy Tesla. Narayan said. (Compiled by Jiang Zhiwen, China Economic Net).
*: China Economic Net.