China Economic Net, Beijing, December 28 (Reporter Guo Tao) Yesterday, the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association held a communication meeting and announced that the preparations for the 2024 100 Forum have been officially launched. The forum will continue to be held from March 15 to March 17, 2024 at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, with the theme of "Consolidating and Expanding the Development Advantages of New Energy Vehicles".
This year, the forum will hold 1 high-level forum, 1 international forum, 2 closed-door meetings and 10 thematic forums to continue to strengthen the characteristics of high-end globalization cross-border forums. Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, said.
According to its introduction, since 2015, the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum has been held for 9 consecutive sessions, and will usher in its 10th anniversary in 2024. Focusing on the 10 years of the 100 people forum and the 10 years of the development of the new energy vehicle industry, the 100 people will carry out a series of activities to comprehensively review the 10 years of development, systematically summarize experience, objectively analyze the shortcomings and challenges, and look forward to the future development prospects.
Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary general of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association.
At the communication meeting, Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary general of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, also summarized the ten major development trends of the new energy vehicle industry in 2024:
First, China's new energy vehicles will further improve their national development and global status.
2024, including 2025, will be a critical period for the consolidation and improvement of China's new energy vehicle industry. Many new technologies and products will be the first to be launched in the Chinese market, and China will become the vane of the global new energy vehicle industry.
At that time, the new energy vehicle industry will not only maintain the leading position in terms of quantity, but also define the next generation of vehicles in terms of technology and rules. At the same time, the status and role of the automotive industry, especially the new energy vehicle industry, in the national economy will also be unprecedentedly enhanced.
Second, the industrial competition pattern has entered a period of deep reshaping.
For the new energy vehicle industry, next year will be a year of more fierce competition and a more differentiated and reshaped competition pattern. Competition will be further deepened, both between countries and between domestic regional markets. At the level of enterprise competition, next year must be a critical period for the big waves, the industry reshuffle will intensify, and a number of million-level enterprises and brands will quickly appear, and the market concentration will be higher and higher, showing a situation of "the strong will always be strong, and the differentiation will intensify". For multinational and joint ventures, 2024 will be a watershed in their transformation, and some companies that cannot keep up with the pace of electrification and intelligent development in the Chinese market may find it difficult to "continue their lives".
Third, the development environment of enterprises will show more "involution" characteristics.
The new energy vehicle industry is entering the "involution 2."In the era of "0", enterprises will face an increasingly competitive development environment such as the intensive release of new models, the acceleration of product iteration, and the diversification and personalization of consumer demand. "Now the car has also entered the 'Moore era', and new car products must be launched in 12 to 18 months, and the speed of high-frequency innovation is struggling. Zhang Yongwei said, "Due to the diversified and personalized consumption characteristics, automobiles are gradually changing from the attributes of durable consumer goods in the past to the attributes of fast-moving consumer goods." ”
Fourth, industrial development is mainly based on the adjustment and optimization of the stock structure.
In the past, the structural characteristics of the new energy vehicle industry were mainly incremental, and it may enter the stage of stock structure adjustment next year. On the one hand, it is the capacity conversion of traditional fuel vehicles;On the other hand, the past electric vehicle production capacity has also reached the time to adjust, fragmented production capacity will develop towards centralization, and some small electric vehicle companies may become the object of industrial restructuring. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the battery production capacity will enter the release period next year, facing the problem of prominent supply contradictions. Including the chip industry, it will also enter the adjustment and usher in the "knockout game".
It should be noted that as the new energy vehicle industry enters the adjustment of the stock structure, the financing environment of enterprises will also change. "Financing is running with increments, especially overseas capital, and we think it will be relatively loose. Zhang Yongwei said, "In general, everyone will be short of money next year, and the financing environment is not optimistic." Of course, there will also be a number of enterprises that rise rapidly in the stock structure, which is a double-edged sword when adjusting. ”
Fifth, the new energy vehicle market will continue to maintain rapid growth.
The 100 people will predict that the annual sales of new energy vehicles (including exports) in China in 2023 are expected to be about 9.5 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 37%. It is estimated that the production and sales scale of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 13 million units in 2024, with a growth rate of about 40%, the overall penetration rate of more than 40%, and the monthly penetration rate of passenger cars is expected to exceed 50%, ushering in an important milestone in industrial development.
With the further expansion of production and sales, the cost of new energy vehicles will be further improved, new technologies will be steadily implemented, and the consumption environment will continue to be optimized. At the same time, plug-in hybrid PHEVs (including range extensions) will become a new driving force for the growth of new energy vehicles. It is expected that in 2024, the "oil and electricity war" will further intensify, and new energy vehicles will further invade the main market of fuel vehicles, and A-class and B-class sedans with a price of 100,000-150,000 yuan will become a key incremental market, contributing to the sales of new energy vehicles of 1 3.
Sixth, the internationalization of new energy vehicles will become a major highlight.
For the whole year of 2023, the export volume of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 1.2 million units (excluding overseas production), with a growth rate of 80%. It is estimated that in 2024, the overseas sales scale of new energy vehicles will exceed 1.8 million units (excluding overseas production), with a growth rate of 50%, accounting for 30% of vehicle exports. From the perspective of development model, multiple models such as real estate sales and technical cooperation will enter a period of accelerated implementation.
Seventh, the transformation of commercial vehicles into new energy and intelligence will accelerate at the same time.
China is a big country of commercial vehicles, with more than 30 million vehicles, and from the perspective of the "double carbon" goal and the company's own development, the electrification and new energy of commercial vehicles are a thing that must be done. The 100 people will believe that after passenger cars enter the track of self-driven development, it is necessary to focus on electrification on commercial vehicles to achieve their green development. At the same time, post-electrified commercial vehicles are catching up with intelligence and will show the characteristics of simultaneous development of "two modernizations". The 100 people association predicts that in 2024, the sales of new energy commercial vehicles will exceed 600,000 units, with a penetration rate of 15%, and the volume rate will increase.
Eighth, further breakthroughs are expected in iconic areas such as batteries, chips, and operating systems.
In 2024, innovative technologies for power batteries such as lithium manganese iron phosphate, 46 series large cylinders, and mixed solid-liquid batteries will gradually enter the application period800V high-voltage fast charging models will usher in a large volume;The hybrid technology is monetized, and the system efficiency is continuously optimized. At the same time, intelligent technology has accelerated the implementation of industrialization, and the AI computing power of bicycles has been rapidly improvedEvolution of the domain-controlled operating system to the cross-domain operating systemSolid-state blind lidar began to be on the car;Drive-by-wire chassis accelerates penetration.
Domestic chips are very worth looking forward to, and some companies have proposed that they will be produced nationwide in 2025, so the acceleration of domestic chips on the car is a very bright feature in the field of automotive semiconductors in the next two years, including domestic operating systems. Zhang Yongwei said.
Ninth, the application route of intelligent driving is gradually clear.
In 2024, bicycle intelligence will enter a period of rapid development and enter the development mode of functional superposition. Among them, the penetration rate of L2 and above assisted driving is expected to reach 55%, and the penetration rate of NOA (automatic assisted navigation) will exceed 10%.The competition of intelligent parking functions will intensify, and the penetration rate will reach 40%, and gradually penetrate into low-cost modelsLevel 3 autonomous driving has been piloted for access and on-road, and it is expected to be commercialized in the next 3-5 years. The development route of wheel cloud integration will also continue to be clear, and it will enter the stage of pilot demonstration and expansion and city-wide opening. In 2024, 85% of passenger cars will be equipped with standard equipment in front of the Internet of Vehicles.
Tenth, the integration of automobiles, ICT, energy and other industries is accelerating.
In 2024, the automotive industry will become more and more cross-border, and will enter a period of deep integration with the ICT and energy industries. At present, China's top 10 mobile phone brands have automotive business layout, and some car companies have also entered the mobile phone marketMore than 50% of China's top 100 chip design companies have entered the automotive fieldMore than 40% of China's top 50 Internet companies have in-vehicle applications.
At the same time, the integration of vehicles and energy has entered a period of accelerated development, and the infrastructure supporting the integrated development continues to improve. It is expected that the number of charging piles will exceed 14 million in 2024, and new technologies and projects such as 800V high-voltage fast charging, integrated wind-solar storage and charging integrated energy stations, and battery swapping will be accelerated. In addition, the vehicle-energy interactive function and comprehensive energy service system tend to mature, and demonstration projects such as hydrogen energy high-speed transportation corridor and battery swapping have been gradually implemented.
*: China Economic Net.