As a person who has enjoyed a small dividend in the price rise cycle of real estate, I would like to share today that from the perspective of trend trading, when should I buy a house in line with the operation of maximizing investment returns!
When we buy a house, the first thing we need to meet is the rigid needs, such as mother-in-law, marriage, children's household registration, schooling, etc., and in addition, the purchase of the second and third sets is more of a financial attribute, that is, the investment value must be considered!
I bought my own house like this, except for the first one to settle down in the city, the other real estate purchases are more because there is a profit margin, because the purchase can rise, can make money, so I buy it, and I don't really need to live.
Therefore, buying in the process of ** is the key!In the real estate cycle, the person who makes money is not really capable, but simply because the house is in the ** cycle, you enter, that's all.
This point, which corresponds to the trend trading strategy, is: wait patiently for the trend to appear, follow the trend to enter the market, and wait for the trend to end.
That is to say, buying a house in an environment of rising prices can make the investment the most cost-effective.
Let's take a look at the following charts: China's second-hand housing ** index trend from 2007 to 2019, the housing price index trend of the United States from 1960 to 2023, and the housing price index trend of Japan from 1960 to 2022.
As you can see, the price of a house does not go up forever!
Under different cycles, the trend of house prices fluctuates very much. If you take the saddest Japan as an example, if you enter the house in the first 20 years from 1990 to 2010, then you will usher in a huge position loss and capital interest.
And if after the adjustment, that is, the house price is sharply**, and then stabilizes, after the start**, enter the property market, that is, enter the red arrows in the above three pictures, then the position feeling is very smooth!
So, buy a house, buy after the adjustment!Very important!And the current market, obviously still in the adjustment**, if you meet the same 20-year adjustment as Japan, then even if it rises, we are all old, no matter how much you earn, there is no point in making more, and there is a high probability that you will not have the strength to spend.
Of course, if you encounter a black swan and the house price continues to fall, then if it falls to the price of cabbage, of course, it is necessary to increase the position!
For example,Based on the simplest rent-to-sale ratio data, if the rent and house price are above 5%, then it is absolutely fine. That is, taking our city as an example, the rent of a 500w house is almost 5500, and the annualized rate of return on rent is only 12%, which is very low.
However, if the house price has been falling and the rent remains the same, when the annualized rate of return on rent reaches 5%, then we can make a profit by collecting rent from the first property. Of course, this drop is very exaggerated, and a 500w house has to fall to 130w!
The rental yield at the peak of Japan's bubble was also 1It's about 5%, but it's basically 5% at the moment, because on one side there is the rent**, and on the other hand, the house price**.
So under the current ** property market, what adjustments are suitable?
I think the best fit is replacement!Instead of adding to your position!
Taking Ningbo as an example, at this stage, the second-hand houses in the ordinary area are about 3w, and the new houses in the core area are **55w, the second-hand house in the core area **4w, and in 2021, the second-hand house in the ordinary area ** is 35w, the second-hand house in the core area is 5w, and the new house in the core area is 45w, the spread between the three has changed significantly.
The existence of a price difference means that there are trading opportunities and arbitrage space.
For example, if you just need to buy a house, then the most appropriate operation in 2021 is not to buy a second-hand house in the core area, but to grab a new house, because of the land price limit, the new house has a premium space, which can be 5,000 yuan lower. I myself was in 2020 at a level of 3The ** of 1w sold a set of not very good locations and changed to the core lot 3For a 4W hardcover house, the difference of 3,000 yuan is regarded as the decoration fee, which is equivalent to parallel replacement, but the value of the lot is completely different.
So far, the market price of the sold set has almost fallen to 25w, while ** is almost 45w, which can be regarded as withstanding the fluctuation of **.
And in 2023, the most appropriate operation is to change the second-hand housing in the ordinary area to the second-hand housing in the core area, because the price difference between the two in 2021 is 15w, but now it is only 1w, and there is a premium of 5000 yuan in the middle.
The core of the property is the location, and it must be a very good choice to replace the property with a more valuable location than in previous years. Especially in the case of bad now, when buying a second-hand house, there will be a greater discount when buying a second-hand house, which can further compress the price difference.
After such a replacement, if the property market is still sluggish in the future, the decline in the core area will be smaller than that of the ordinary area, and if it starts, the increase will be greater.
The so-called strong do not complain about the environment, no matter how much the objective environment changes, they will definitely find valuable opportunities!
The real update is an account that started on September 26, mainly trading** markets, including commodities, stock indices and Treasuries, with the latest yield of 7%.