1. Things have changed, and the Information Administration has "relented". First of all, I will review the "tragedy" next Friday, the Press and Publication Administration issued the "Measures for the Administration of Online Games (Draft for Solicitation of Comments)" at noon on Friday, which instantly stirred up thousands of waves, and Hong Kong stocks collapsed in a straight line, from **14%** to -17%, the major game stocks plummeted, directly affecting the big A market, the afternoon opening fell from the rise, games, media and other related sectors fell sharply, just had an improving atmosphere to cool down, the end of the market has not been able to pull back.
After two days of fermentation, things have intensified, some say that the news was leaked in advance, some say that the game industry is cool, and everyone has different opinions. From the perspective of the impact weight, the overall weight of the game plate on the big A is not high, but now the big A is like a frightened bird, and any bad news will cause significant damage to the atmosphere. Relevant listed companies took the lead in releasing news that the Information Department's "Measures" are expected to have a great impact on the game industry.
Today, the Information Agency admits intimidation and relents, saying that it will seriously study the concerns and opinions raised by all parties on the content of the draft for comments, and will further revise and improve it on the basis of continuing to listen to the opinions of all parties.
The current big A, if you want to be good, you can erase the bad if you don't want to be negative, except for not rising, the rest, I'm quite satisfied now. Unfortunately, what I want most is for it to go up.
2. The Mediterranean crisis is comingShipping is going to rise again?When I saw this news this morning, I was a little panicked, if this makes trouble, then it will be okay?!There are three reported points: First, Iranian generals said on Saturday that the Mediterranean, the Strait of Gibraltar and other waterways are about to be closed;Secondly, the Strait of Gibraltar is the gateway of the North Atlantic Ocean to the Mediterranean, and with the Suez River now blocked, it is vital for European shipping;Thirdly, Iran does not have the capability to strike long-range strikes on the Strait of Gibraltar, but its allies in Lebanon and Syria may have access to the Mediterranean Sea for activities.
Shipping prices may also increase. Previously, a large number of merchant ships have suspended the use of the Red Sea shipping lanes and chose to detour from Africa, but the detouring ships also need to enter the Mediterranean Sea in order to transport goods to southern European ports, if the Strait of Gibraltar is closed, merchant ships can only unload through Portugal, Spain, France and other Western European coastal countries, which will greatly increase the transportation time and transportation costs.
3. Correct the name of the Shanghai Composite IndexWho proves?First there was a 3,000-point defense battle, then a 2,900-point defense battle, and almost a 2,800-point defense battle. No, the Times can't stand it, and wants to correct the name of the Shanghai Composite Index, thinking that the Dow Jones has a history of 127 years, from 4094 o'clock ** to 3740,000 points, a cumulative increase of 913 times, and the calculable compound annual growth rate is only 55%, and this still does not put aside the negative impact of inflation, and the vast majority of ** are not paying dividends, investors may not receive this money.
In this case, being optimistic about U.S. stocks but ridiculing Big A is something that can't be beaten. What about the big A, the basis point was 100 points when it was released in 1990, and it has risen to 2918 points in 33 years, an increase of 28 times in 33 years, and the compound rate is 108%, which is twice as much as the Dow. The point of view is that the big A should not be ridiculed, let alone blamed, and the real return of the big A is stronger than that of US stocks.
If you look at it from the perspective of data, the "correct name" is indeed the correct name, and the return rate of Big A is indeed better than that of the Dow. But there are a few points here that are ignored, first, there is inflation in the United States, and Big A is also facing inflation, and the "correct name" does not put aside the inflation of Big A, and the interest rate spread is calculated aside, and when Big A is developing rapidly, inflation is exceptionally high, only saying that there is inflation, not saying that Big A has inflation, so there is a leak in the comparison;Second, many investors in U.S. stocks did not get buybacks because they did not pay dividends, and the same is true for big AThird, the market opened in December 90, and it only took a short time to soar to more than 1000 points, at that time there were very few participants, if you put aside those two years, in 31 years we have risen from around 1000 points to around 2900 points now, this. I don't know how to answer this rate of return.
In my opinion, in order to justify the name of the big A, we can't just justify the name from our favorable data, which is a bit of a play on words, and we must stand in the same scene to correct the name. We hope that Big A will get better and better, and we hope that Big A can remain **.
4. Back to Big A, what is the situation now?I think 2882 points may be the bottom, there are three aspects: on the one hand, now the big A wants to be good for the good, and if you don't want the negative, you can eliminate the negative, which is really rare in history, enough to see the determination of the big A to build the bottom. In other words, even if 2882 points is not the bottom, it must be very close to this position, and there is no basis for a deep fall and continuous **;
On the other hand, I have said many times that the valuation of Big A is really not high, and it is in the historical quantile of 7The 3% position, a proper bottom range, is about to enter 2024, when valuations will be even lower.
Finally, all parties are waiting for funds. I don't feel that the market is short of money, but I think that Big A has no confidence. Quantitative changes cause qualitative changes, and when Big A regains confidence, those off-the-counter funds may coax chips and further push **.
To reiterate my point of view, there is no systemic risk below 3000 points, only ** risk, and we must maintain enough patience at this stage. List of high-quality authors