[Introduction].On December 14, 2023, the second day of the lunar winter month, in the domestic pig market, the recent pig price showed a trend of over-falling and rising sharply56 yuan kg, in the last 5 days, pig prices bucked the trend and strengthened, as of today, the price of pigs rose to 143 yuan kg, the price of pigs rose by 546%, the average price of live pigs has shifted upward, and the price rise tide is almost open, but there are still two major risks in the market that need to be vigilant, and the specific analysis is as follows:
From the perspective of slaughtering enterprises, on December 14, in the 28 provinces and regions that are monitored in the country, Hainan and Xinjiang, pig prices were narrow and weak, and slaughtering enterprises were lowered by 01 yuan kg, in Guangxi, pig prices are mainly sideways, and in most areas of the north and south, pig prices are **005~0.45 yuan kg, among them, Shaanxi, Gansu, Henan and other places, the price of pigs is more obvious! At present, the domestic mainstream production and marketing market, the northeast region, the pig price **01~0.15 yuan, Heilongjiang rose to 1375 yuan kg, in Shanxi and Hebei markets ** rose to 1395~14.35 yuan kg. In the ** region, the Sichuan-Chongqing market ** rose to 149~15.1 yuan kg, Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets ** high 149~15.2 yuan, the two markets ** sideways 146 15 yuan kg!
At present, the pig price is showing a trend, and the benefits of supporting the pig price are as follows
That. First, a new round of cold wave weather hit, Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and other places, a wide range of rain and snow cooling highlighted, East China, Central China, the level of pig farm pigs weakened, the breeding end of the price reluctant to sell mentality, the group pig enterprises have a prominent right to speak, the sentiment has increased sharply, and some of the head pig enterprises have risen at 03~0.7 yuan kg, especially, large weight pigs *** is more obvious;
That. Second, the cold wave is coming, the temperature in the north and south may drop to a new low this winter, many places in the south or will usher in the first snow, southwest and south China, the temperature will also drop sharply, the southwest region, pork pickling is expected to usher in the "peak season", due to the phased southwest market white pig ** year-on-year decline of more than 5 percent, pork ** is cheap, residents are expected to concentrate on pickling or will be greatly improved, the market for fresh white consumption will also increase significantly, the market bullish confidence has increased sharply!
That. Third, the pressure on the breeding end of the slaughter has weakened, previously, the pig farm disease in many places in the north is spreading, the farmer's sentiment is not high, the market is less pigs, and the consumption of pigs is about to enter the peak season, which may drive the standard pigs higher!
That. Fourth, the winter solstice and New Year's Day holidays are approaching, the temperature is gradually dropping, the mentality of the breeding end has improved significantly, and the mood of panic slaughter may be reduced!
Therefore, based on the phased pig market multiple good news gradually cashed in, pig price support strengthened, in particular, the temperature in the north and south regions has dropped sharply, pork demand or will increase, the market or will usher in a cyclical peak season, pig price rise tide is almost a bright card, in the short term, pig prices or will maintain a strong running trend, pig price center of gravity is expected to increase significantly, pig fattening loss pressure will also be significantly reduced!
However, there are still 2 major risks in the hog market that need to be vigilant!
On the one hand, after the winter, the pressure of domestic pig farms is not reduced, the temperature fluctuates, the respiratory tract and diarrhea in pig farms are more prominent, in particular, the pig fattening loss for nearly 11 months during the year, farmers are stretched thin, and the attention to biosecurity prevention is reduced, which may cause an increase in the risk of epidemic disease and exacerbate the risk of pig slaughter stampede;
On the other hand, the domestic pig production capacity is at a high level, and the pork ** level is also significantly high, the pork output during the year or will exceed 60 million tons, pig slaughter or will exceed 7100 million heads, the pressure of the slaughter impulse of the group pig enterprises at the end of the year has not yet been, and the slaughtering enterprises have recently stocked up on dips, and the storage capacity of frozen pork remains high, which will have a certain impact on the consumer market!
From this analysis, although the consumption season is gradually cashed in, pig prices are in the stage of strong operation, but, due to the pressure still exists, the production of pigs and pork is abundant, in the situation of double increase in purchase and sales, vigilance at the breeding end of the concentration of slaughter, the market pig price is still high and falling! Hogs**
Pig prices rose 546%, the price rise tide is almost open, 2 major risks need to be vigilant! Pig price on December 14th! What do you think about this? The above is the author's personal opinion, **from the Internet!