The most ups and downs in the future of the world's pension must be in East Asia.
Here, not only do you live a long time, but many people don't have money in their pockets, which is exciting to think about.
The populations of Japan, South Korea, and China began to grow negatively in 2007, 2021, and 2022, respectively.
This is a major change in East Asia that has not been seen in thousands of years.
Before the official chat, let's use Japan and South Korea as a foreshadowing.
1.Japan. In 2007, the number of deaths in Japan exceeded the number of new births for the first time, officially starting the first year of negative population growth.
Japan is indeed a global leader in terms of aging.
According to data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan in October 2022, about 60% of Japan's population aged 15-64 is the lowest in historyThe proportion of the population over 65 years old is 291%, the highest on record.
And that's not even counting the latest data in September 2023, the number of elderly people over 80 years old in Japan is 12.59 million, exceeding 10% of the total population for the first time and ranking first in the world.
Japan also has the highest proportion of the elderly population in the world.
Japan is suffering from a typical double kill of extreme declining birthrate and aging population.
2.Korea. In 2021, the number of deaths in South Korea exceeded the number of new births for the first time, officially starting the first year of negative population growth in South Korea.
South Korea and Japan are like babies and phoenixes when it comes to low birth rates and high levels of aging.
Japan has the world's largest aging population, and South Korea has the world's lowest birth rate.
Since 2016, the antagonism between men and women in South Korea has become increasingly serious, and the birth rate has plummeted.
In 2021, South Korea's birth rate has fallen to 082, ranking last in the world.
By the way, the proportion of the elderly in South Korea in the working population is also not too high.
South Korea's population has been declining for the first time since 2020, and with the current trend, it is difficult for the Korean population to turn around.
The number of births in 2021 was 26050,000, 31780,000, a natural decrease in population of 5730,000.
According to official data from Korean media, as of the end of last year, South Korea's population has decreased for the first time for two consecutive years since relevant statistics began in 1949.
It's okay, this year marks the third year in a row.
The key issue is that South Korea implemented a strict family planning policy that lasted for 34 years from 1962 to 1996.
How strict is the policy, South Korea advocates a couple to have two children, well, not to mention, it is indeed quite strict.
Not only does Japan have the problem of aging, but we have also "introduced" the confrontation between men and women in South Korea, so it is difficult to explain the problem of declining birthrate and aging.
3.China. The first two countries are hors d'oeuvres, and when we get here, it's a serious meal.
There has never been a precedent in history for a country of our size and size after it has entered an aging population.
Before talking about us, let's talk about the old-age dependency ratio.
As the name suggests, the old-age dependency ratio is the ratio between the labor force between the ages of 20 and 59 and the number of people over the age of 60.
See the figure below for details.
The country with the worst old-age dependency ratio in the world is Japan, which is almost 1Eight workers support one elderly person, which is almost unprecedented aging.
But even in just seven years, we may face a situation that is far more dire than that of Japan today.
2 labor force corresponds to 1 old man, and in the next 10 years, it may be 15 labor force corresponds to 1 old man, and in the next 10 years, that is, when the master and son retire, it may be 1 or even less labor force corresponding to 1 old man.
Of course, this is still an optimistic premise, and once the population has an irreversible trend of collapse, the result will only be worse. Another big challenge is that not only do we have less money than they do, but we also have to deal with an ageing population that is far greater than theirs.
By comparison, when Japan and South Korea entered negative population growth, their per capita GDP was above $35,000.
In 2022, when our population is growing negatively, the per capita GDP is just $12,814.
Whether it is more painful for people to leave and the money is not spent, or whether it is more painful for people to still be there but the money is spent, this can only be left for the audience to comment.
Looking at all countries in the world, people in developed countries can only count on their income**, but most people in developing countries can only rely on themselves.
Endless or even lifelong work will surely become the choice of the old people in the future.
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