Today, let's talk about the problem of thunderstorms in real estate companies, in fact, I haven't talked much about the thunderstorms of real estate companies in recent times, not because the trend of thunderstorms in real estate companies has slowed down, but because there are too many thunderstorms and they have become numb.
No matter how magical things are, they are already sparse and commonplace.
Recently, another 100 billion real estate company exploded - Baolong Real Estate.
The reason is that the interest on the US dollar debt due cannot be paid on time, and the amount is not muchOnly $15.91 million
But I can't afford it, in the original words of Baolong Real Estate
Despite its best efforts, the Company expects that liquid cash and bank deposits will still not be able to meet its current and future obligations.
It is also reasonable for such a thunderstorm to occur, and all the real estate companies that have increased their leverage during the rapid development of real estate in the past have not had a good time now.
Even a real estate company with a strong background like Vanke has suffered a credit rating downgrade and short-selling some time ago.
And from Baolong Real Estate, we can also feel the rapid decline of the real estate market in the past two years.
In 2021,The contracted sales of Baolong Real Estate reached 101.2 billion yuan
It officially entered the ranks of 100 billion real estate development enterprises, ranking 43rd among the top 100 real estate companies.
However, in 2022, the property market has changed dramatically, and sales have declined sharply.
In 2022, Powerlong Real Estate has only completed 346Contracted sales of $8.7 billion.
The previous year it was still at the level of 100 billion, and this year it has dropped to 30 billion.
The difference is more exciting than riding a roller coaster.
The sales side is not able to return blood, and the refinancing channel has been cut off.
This directly led to the fact that Baolong Real Estate will face an equivalent amount of 7 billion yuan of public offering debt in the second half of 2022 after repaying 20 billion yuan of debt.
The market will be even less ideal in 2023, according to the financial report, in the first half of this year, Baolong Real Estate recorded a total income of about 1229.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 272%, as of the end of the first half of this year,The total liabilities of Baolong Real Estate have reached 163.6 billion yuan
From the explosion of Baolong real estate, we can clearly see the two major status quo of real estate.
First, the sales side is not strong, and everyone is reluctant to buy a house.
Second, for real estate companies, even if the financing channels continue to increase financing, at most it will only alleviate the debt pressure of real estate enterprises, which is also a hidden feature of current real estate companies, that is, in the past, they frantically increased leverage and debt, resulting in an extremely tight capital chain.
In the face of the industry downturn, there is simply no ability to resist risks.
To put it bluntly, you can only play the tailwind game, and the headwind game is not even as good as a super soldier
In this situation, you can't rely on financing to live for a lifetime, and the final landing point still lies in the market side, and someone can buy a house.
The current state of the market is that no one is buying a house.
According to the data of the China Index Research Institute, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies from January to November were 57,3790 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 147%, if this trend still does not shrink in 2024, the thunderstorm may continue to spread, or even deepen, and some mixed-ownership real estate companies may also be under pressure at that time.
There is no way, if the real estate industry enters a downward cycle, even if the policy has been very loose, it will still be difficult to save these overextended real estate companies
When the general trend of the market has been formed, the hand of policy cannot change the direction of the hand of the market in the end.