From a rational point of view, the downward trend of real estate is probableIt will continue.
And this round of downward movement is very different from previous periods, this round of downward movementVelocity, depth, periodicity, and surface of influenceIt will surpass every winter in the previous property market.
In the short term, it goes without saying that squeezing the ointment to save the market is not a cure for the symptoms, and Lao Pan emphasized moreEven if the bailout is cashed out, but it can only release the squeezed wait-and-see rigid demand, forming a short-term phased stabilization and rebound, but rebounding"Persistence" is insufficient。The core crux of the matter is also:At present, China's economy, people's income, industrial transformation, and industry transfer to the stock eraand other fundamentals,Not enough to support a sustained recovery in sales and a full recovery.
But even at the current node, in August 2023, Yu Liang has already said that real estate sales are over-falling, only after a small number of ** months after the bailout in SeptemberIn October, in November, it continued to sell on the basis of "over-falling".
What does it mean to overfall and then **?
Real estate people dare not imagine. Once it cannot be contained, then it is not even ruled out that the last private enterprise belief of real estate people in 2024 will not be ruled out"Gemdale, Vanke, and Longhu" will all face the danger of thunder.
part1 It's not that sales are overfalling
Rather, investment, start-up, sales, financing and other all-round overfalls
reminded of the risk of overfalling, so, as of now, how much has real estate declined?How much did it go down?
This, the numbers need to speak!
Therefore, Lao Pan is particularly separated"The decline in land sales income, the decline in sales revenue, the loss rate of real estate, the decline in the area of new construction, and the decline in the financing amount of real estate enterprisesThese five indicators are discussed in an all-round way.
I don't know, I'm scared.
1. 50% of the income from land sales. Land is the engine of the industry's development, from August 20217 trillion to 2023 less than 4 trillion, **50%, most local ** finance is counting on land sales income, you can imagine how difficult it will be for local finance in 23 years.
2. Changes in sales revenue, from 2021 to 182 trillion to 23 in 11About 5 trillion. Lost nearly 7 trillion in 2 years. How many concepts is 7 trillion?It should be said that 95% of China's industries have not reached this sales height.
3. Changes in new construction. The new construction is an investment, and it is a direct indicator of the confidence of real estate companies in the real estate market that yearThe change of leading the sales of the first change。And this indicator from previous years 167100 million square metersThe peak slid down sharplyToday, in 2023, it is less than 700 million square meters. In 23 years, it is expected that only a fraction of the peak period will remain.
4. Changes in the amount of financing. In 2023, the financing amount of typical real estate enterprises will increase from 17 trillion has now shrunk to 047 trillion, the contraction is so fierce and scary.
5. Changes in the resignation of real estate people: According to incomplete statistics, it is expected that from the peak of the industry to the present in recent years, some people even expect that 70% of real estate people will leave the industry. In 2022 alone, many large and medium-sized real estate companies will lay off more than 50% and 70% of their employees in a year, and they will continue in 2023.
6. Typical city housing prices20% to 30%, or even 50%. It used to be said that 30% was the red line for house prices. However, taking Shenzhen, the first-tier city that is the leader in each round of the cycle, as an example, the housing price of Shenzhen school district housing has reached 50% this year, and 30% of many other communities is the norm.
Most of the above almost halved ** occurred in these 2 years.
In just 2 years, real estate has gone from heaven to hell, and it isOne stop direct!
The above data of the key dimensions of the property market fell, revealing a deep chill. It not only witnessed the drastic adjustment of the real estate this year, but also almost destroyed the last strength and confidence in the hearts of the real estate people in it!
part 2
Instead of asking where the bottom is, it is better to look at where the "center" of the property market is in the next stage
At the moment, we all know that the real estate market is seriously overshooted, but what is even more worrying is that we still don't know when it isWhere is the bottom?
We are certainly excited to see the latest summit meeting in 2024"Promote stability with progress", "first establish and then break.""economic guidelines, which means more explicitVigorously develop the economyand really passedFaster and more effective "development".to solve the difficult problems accumulated at the moment.
But we're also worried.
The economic recovery is not achieved overnightMost real estate companies and upstream and downstream industry chain enterprises may not be able to wait for that day.
For example, whether the white list of 50 real estate companies that are rumored to be able to land on a large scale and with a high amount in the short term still makes private real estate companies look forward to it
Second, there are many problems in real estate todayLong-term structural problemsThis is a problem that is difficult to solve in the short term or even if the economy picks upEven after the real estate stabilizes in the next few years, it will still face medium and long-term structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading in the future
Back to the observation of this round of real estate trends, Lao Pan emphasizedIn a way, we're worried about where the real estate bottom is todayWhen is the end?It is better to pay attention to the sales center and investment center that can be maintained in the real estate market for a long time in the future
It is like looking at the industry itself, the urbanization stage, the supply and demand structure, etcFrom now to 2030, in the medium and long term, the future sales center is in the first placeThe center of future investment is **?
In terms of sales area, the basic consensus is that despite the serious sales of real estate, the sales center of China's real estate at this stage (2021 to 2030) should be about 1 billion square meters. Although 1.8 billion square meters of sky will be created in 2021, it is not the last madness.
From the perspective of the residential construction center, Vanke Yuliang said in a targeted manner: long-term viewThe pivotal value of future residential construction is 1.0-1.2 billion square meters, and now 2023 is expected to be the area of new residential constructionLess than 700 million square metersObviously, residential construction in 2023 is overfalling.
From the perspective of real estate investment center, Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Essence recently, believes that the lower limit of real estate investment GDP should be 7% during the period by 2030In 2023, it will already be about 6%, and it is expected to be ** to 5 in 2024About 5%. This means that real estate investment has also overtaken at the moment.
With the pivot value,The farther it deviates from the pivot value, the stronger the rebound will be in the later period.
Rather than judging the absolute value of the data from the relative peak of real estate investment and sales, because it may also be a crazy high point during the peak period, such as Shenzhen's housing prices, some of which are more than 40% or 50%, that is because they were also crazy at the beginning.
With the pivot value, the so-called over-falling or not, there is a reference line!
part 3
It is more appropriate to use the investment amount GPD instead of the sales area to evaluate the real estate center
How to pass the anchor of the next round of pivot value in real estateTo see the real extent of the real estate overfall?
Recently, Dr. Gao Shanwen did a sample analysis at the Essence 2024 Investment Strategy Conference, which is a good reference case.
First of all, it is necessary to clarify the preconditions for the future medium- to long-term real estate pivot, i.e., assumptionsThe current real estate market crisis is behind and is looking forward to 2030 and beyond, in the context of continued urbanizationWhat is the approximate level of sales area that can be maintained in the long-term development of China's real estate market?
Second, sales area is one of the mainstream evaluation indicators for measuring the development of the industry, but the problem is that it may not be appropriate to use sales area to look at the long-term pivot value of China's real estate in the future (now to 2030 or even longer). There are two reasons for this;
OneThere is a huge difference in the value of "sales area" in China's first-, second-, third- and fourth-tier cities and the differential impact on financial leverage. For example, the macroeconomic impact of building a one-square-meter house in rural areas and small cities is different from that of building a one-square-meter house in Beijing and Shanghai. At the same time, the use of leverage is not the same, which in turn has different impacts on the entire financial system. The second is to use the sales area to estimate the future market center, which is difficult to compare internationally.
Therefore, Gao Shanwen proposed another indicator, that is, the ratio of real estate investment GDP instead of sales area, to see the long-term central value of China's real estate in the future.
Why Real Estate Investment GDP?There are two main reasons for this.
First, it will be very convenient to make a comparison between developed and developing countries in the world. TwoThis indicator covers the macroeconomic impact of building homes in different regions, and can even accommodate the broader impact of leverage on financial and economic activity to some extent.
Part 4 Real estate investment has fallen below the pivot value
How to find out how China's economy has grown from double digits to medium and low growth, urbanization from 65% to 80%, and the trend of aging and declining birthrate, what is the comprehensive performance of real estate investment GDP in developed and developing countries?
Let's take a look at Gao Shanwen's systematic analysis of the three sample systems based on the contraction period of the Northeast property market, the contraction period of the Japanese property market, and the contraction period of the American property market:
Observe sample 1
The contraction period of the property market in Northeast China is a good model for observation
You may be surprisedWhy look at the Northeast property market?
The core is because of the Northeast regionThe peak of real estate and urbanization is long over!
The value of studying the situation in Northeast China is that the total population of Northeast China has been declining rapidly since 2011The decline is about 1% per year。Over the past decade, the population of Northeast China has declined by more than 10 million.
Approximately from 2014, exceptHarbin, Changchun, Shenyang and DalianAll other small and medium-sized cities combined have seen a population decline of nearly 1% per year, and has continued to do so until now.
The peak of urbanization driven by the housing market actually ended early in the first half of the decade from 2010 to 2020. In the second half of this decade, the real estate market in the Northeast in general is:It is shrinking, stabilizing and adjustingprocess. For example, whether it is a large city or a small city in the Northeast region, their sales area is at its peakAppeared around 2013Since then, the entire residential market has seen a significant decline in sales area. Thereinto.
For a large number of small and medium-sized cities,Residential sales fell by 60% before broadly stabilising
For the first-tier cities in the Northeast, the decline is about 20%-30%, and then basically stabilized.
For the whole of Northeast China, the sales area of the entire real estate market has basically stabilized after 2016. This level corresponds to 60% of the opening level, which is equivalent toThe overall market is down 40%.
Both from a demographic point of view and from the point of view of the change in the absolute level of residential sales area, we can argue thatThe peak of real estate and urbanization in the Northeast has long since endedThe market has stabilized against the backdrop of a shrinking and out-migration population.
In this context, the proportion of real estate investment in the Northeast will provide us with some useful inspiration. So, what is the level of real estate investment in GDP in the Northeast and then stabilized?
We can see that after 2015, this investment has basically stabilized at the level of around 7%.
The sale area of residential buildings was discounted by 6%, and then basically stabilized until before the epidemic. Real estate investment has basically stabilized at around 7% for the entire Tohoku region。This is a level established in the context of the rapid population migration into cities in the northeast has ended, and the urbanization of the massive population inflow into the cities is almost coming to an end.
Observe sample 2Japan phase (2000 to 2010).At that time, the central axis of real estate investment in Japan was 65%
What is the pivotal value of Japan's real estate long-term investment GDP?
Observe that the proportion of real estate investment in Japan from 2000 to 2010 is relatively matched.
Japan's urbanization ended in the 80s, and in the 90s it experienced the bursting of the real estate bubble for a decade or more, followed by an overall aging population and a decline in the size of the total population. In this context, we see,Japan's real estate investment is the long-term central axis, accounting for 6% of GDP5% level
Observe sample 3United States (2014 to 2023).U.S. real estate investment accounts for 7% of the pivotal valueThere is no doubt that the United States is a highly developed economy that has long since ended urbanization.
Moreover, the United States experienced a rapid housing market bubble between 2004 and 2008Subsequently, the rapid collapse of the real estate bubble was experienced. After about 2014, the United States began to emerge from the financial crisis, and the economy began to return to relatively normal growth. The striking sign was that around that time, the Fed began to raise interest rates.
After 2014,In the context of the emergence of the housing bubble in the United States, the proportion of real estate investment is also about 7%.
Before the U.S. economic bubble in 2005, real estate accounted for nearly 8% of investment.
4. Conclusion: 7% of China's real estate investment is the lower end of the center
So, from these perspectives, we can think to a certain extent.
Considering that China still has some room to continue to push up urbanization, and considering China's per capita income level, there is still some room for improvement, we are in these comparisons of similar parameters at the same stageThe resulting 7% level should be at the lower end of the pivot for long-term real estate investment in the future.
What is the approximate level of China now?
Around 2013, China experienced the bursting of a real estate bubble of a certain size, and the proportion of real estate investment has been declining since then. Between 2017 and 2020, it was about 9%., it is difficult to consider significantly higher than the long-term reasonable center. In particular, many people believe that China went through it during this periodRapid bubble in the real estate market
But what we have seen is that the bubble in the vast majority of the real estate market is accompanied by a rapid rise in investment at the same time as the rapid rise in investment. This is not seen in China's data for the same period.
However, in 2022 and 2023, the proportion of investment will obviously decline rapidly. In 2023, real estate investment is expected to account for just over 6% of GDP.
I would like to add that by 2024, China's real estate investment should be a share of GDPFall below 6%, such as fall to. The level of around 7%.
Obviously, China's real estate investment in 2023 and 2024 has been seriously over-fallen.
In fact, the relative 7% is the generic lower end, which I personally thinkThe long-term reasonable center is estimated at 8%., it won't be an extreme estimate, and 7% is just the bottom end. Let's move on to some international comparisons.
You might say that comparing China's data with that of developed markets seems too restrictive. So another way we considered was to putChina's data correspond to similar stages of development of China's East Asian neighbors.
For example, if we used to think that China's level of development in 2010 was about the same as that of Japan around 1968 and South Korea around 1990, did China's indicators deviate significantly from a reasonable level?
Comparing China's residential investment as a share of GDP in its East Asian neighbors, it is very clear that two facts are that almost all the time, including inAt the peak of residential investment, the level in China is not significantly higher than that of Japan and South Korea.
China's residential investment as a share of GDP, even at its peak, is at a similar stage of development to Japan and South KoreaBasically, it's in a rank, and not significantly higher.
After this peak, residential investment as a share of GDP began to decline, but China's decline has not been significantly slower than theirs.
At the same time, taking into account the drastic adjustment of the real estate market in the past two years,China's share of residential investment this year, compared to a similar stage of development, is already significantly lower than that of Japan and South Korea over the same period, and is expected to continue to decline next year. So,The scale of our current investment is significantly lower than that of Japan and South Korea in the same period.
On the other hand, if we compare China in the context of all developed countries, we can see that China's current level is at a significantly low level in the world, lower than the median of developed countries as a whole, and at the lower end of the overall ranking.
Summary
To sum up, there are three points.
First, today's major dimensional indicators of the real estate industry have already reflected the fact that they are overfalling, and the possibility of continuing to decline in 2024 still exists. For example, S&P recently said: In 2024, it will still be real estateThe year of the bottom.
Second, today's guaranteed delivery of buildings is more for people's livelihood, and more for the protection of housing enterprises is more to avoid the risk of continuing to spread to mixed-ownership housing enterprises, but even if the delivery of buildings and housing enterprises is completed, it still cannot make the entire real estate industry stable and healthy. The stabilization, recovery and sustainability of the fundamentals of the real estate market is the way for the industry to develop steadily for a long time after the end of the current round of crisis.
Third, we must solve the problem from the source of the industry, todayThe amount of land acquired, new construction, and the three major source development indicators of real estate investment and GDP have fallen excessivelyIt will only exacerbate the further decline in the next round of sales, and eventually make the entire industry decline into a vicious downward circle. But the problem is that the three major source indicators all originate from and depend on the changes in sales indicators. So,Guaranteed sales is the insurance industry. Therefore, ensuring the delivery of the building and ensuring the people's livelihood is only a local **, and ensuring sales is the overall antidote and long-term stability!