At the end of 2023, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which lasted for nearly 700 days, is still protracted, the smoke of war has not yet dissipated in Eurasia, the frontline is stalemate, and the two sides are stuck in a protracted war and a war of attrition. Ukraine has really reached the point where it seems that it will not shed its last drop of blood and will not stop fighting to the last man. However, without waiting for Zelensky to come out and say a few words, here the American "Washington Post" and the French "Le Parisien" and many other ** called Putin the "winner of the year", what is the reason?There are many reasons for this - Kyiv** has come to a standstill, the support and attention of Western countries such as Europe and the United States for Ukraine is gradually weakening, and the resilient Russian economy is beginning to adapt to the "new normal" under sanctions. Some time ago, an expert asked questionsWhy Russia's economy is getting better and better. What is particularly noteworthy is that on the diplomatic front, Russia has made efforts to break the isolation of the West, actively strengthened ties with neighboring countries and non-Western countries, and has been able to break through the difficult situation.
At the beginning of 2023, Russia issued a new version of the Foreign Policy Concept, a programmatic document on its diplomacy, which emphasizes that "Russia does not consider itself an enemy of the West and is willing to carry out dialogue and cooperation on the basis of sovereign equality and respect for each other's interests." Although there is no dawn of peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Western sanctions are even increasing, resuming dialogue with the West and creating a favorable external environment for Russia have always been the direction of Russia's diplomatic efforts. It is precisely because of Russia's excellent foreign policy that NATO countries are helpless against it.
On 30 November last year, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attended a meeting of the OSCE Foreign Ministers' Council in North Macedonia. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, he has rarely appeared in European countries, especially NATO countries. Although the foreign ministers of Ukraine, the three Baltic countries and other countries refused to attend, the smooth participation of the Russian delegation is in itself a "breakthrough" from the blockade of NATO and the West, which also shows that many countries in Europe advocate easing relations with Russia and hope to resume a certain degree of dialogue with Russia. At the meeting, Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó also called for the cessation of the diplomatic settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict with Ukraine. It is not difficult to see here that the attitude of the United States and the West towards Russia is gradually changing, and individual countries have been divided.
In addition, the recent leadership changes in many European countries have made a major breakthrough in Russian diplomacy. This has led to a split within the anti-Russian camp in the West, such as Slovakia's new ** said it did not support sanctions against Russia, and also announced that it would end military support for Ukraine;Poland's former coalition of opposition parties came to power, and the new ** pays more attention to domestic issues and relatively less attention to international affairs, which will also weaken Poland's support for Ukraine. You must know that the biggest source of mercenaries in Ukraine has always been Poland, and once a large number of mercenaries leave early, it will be a fatal blow to Ukraine's **Zelensky.
Historically, integration into the West has always been a long-cherished aspiration of the Russian nation, but 2022 has become an irreversible turning point in relations between Russia and the West. The Russian elite no longer has illusions in the West, actively adjusts its foreign policy, and accelerates the pace of "going east". Among the Eastern countries, China and India will surely become the key countries of Russia's diplomacy, and Russia has indeed chosen so.
Russia's new version of the "Foreign Policy Concept" clearly points out that it will further strengthen the comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination with China, develop mutually beneficial cooperation in various fields, and support each other in the international arena. In March 2023, Putin** visited China and attended the 3rd Belt and Road SummitIn May, Russian Prime Minister Mishustin led 3 deputy prime ministers, 5 ministers and a 500-member business delegation to ShanghaiIn December, Mishustin visited China again to attend regular meetings between the Chinese and Russian prime ministers.
The frequent exchange of high-level visits between China and Russia has once again confirmed that China is an important direction of Russia's diplomacy. Under the political guidance of the head-of-state diplomacy, the two countries have continuously deepened political mutual trust, strengthened strategic cooperation, and deepened and strengthened cooperation in various fields such as economy, trade, energy, people-to-people and security. From January to November 2023, the bilateral amount between China and Russia has exceeded 200 billion US dollars, achieving the set goal ahead of schedule, and the potential of China-Russia economic and trade cooperation is constantly being released.
As early as the Soviet era, the Soviet Union and India had close cooperation in the military field. At present, India's military industry still has a large demand for Russia. Russia regards India as a "special and preferential strategic partner", and India, which pursues strong development, also needs Russia's support on the road to becoming a permanent member of the UN Security Council. In recent years, the two countries have also strengthened economic and trade cooperation, and this year, the bilateral economic and trade volume between Russia and India has reached a record high of more than $50 billion.
In October 2023, a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict broke out. This has not only reduced the attention of the international community to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and weakened the support of Western countries for Ukraine, but also provided Russia with a diplomatic opportunity to some extent. Putin also flashed the Middle East at the right time.
The United States supports Israel's suppression of Hamas, and Israel has intensified its indiscriminate bombardment of the Gaza Strip. This is undoubtedly a forced push of the Arab countries to the side of Russia. The draft resolution on the situation around Israel and the Gaza Strip, introduced by Russia in the UN Security Council, was supported by the Arab countries. The secretary general of the League of Arab States and the Iraqi prime minister have also visited Moscow one after another to seek Russia's support for Palestine. Anyone with a discerning eye understands what this is all about, and Putin has added a new piece to his chessboard.
On December 6 last year, Russia** Putin visited the Middle Eastern countries of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia and met with the heads of state of the two countries respectively. Subsequently, on the 7th, he held a meeting with Raisi, a visiting Iranian ** Raisi. During the visit, Putin was treated with high-level courtesy. The Russian side even got special permission to have the fighter plane carry live ammunition to escort Putin's special plane throughout the whole process. Of course, such enthusiasm will also be rewarded, according to ** report: Putin left a lot of escort equipment when he returned, which is only grapevine unconfirmed.
As a major energy exporter, Russia and Saudi Arabia and other oil exporting countries communicate and coordinate production under the "OPEC+" mechanism to consolidate its position in the international energy market. At the same time, Russia has strengthened economic and trade exchanges with Middle Eastern countries, deepened military cooperation with Iran, communicated with relevant countries on hotspot issues in the Middle East, and continued to exert its influence as a major power in the Middle East through a series of measures.
Historically, the Soviet Union actively supported the anti-colonial struggle of African countries and had a traditional friendship with African countries. African countries have always opposed Western hegemony and have therefore taken a relatively neutral position in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In addition, Africa is also Russia's export market with the most growth potential, especially in agricultural products, fertilizers and other aspects. Russia is a large agricultural country, and food has a huge impact on the African economy.
In recent years, as relations with the West have deteriorated, Russia has stepped up its diplomatic efforts in Africa. In 2019, Russia hosted the first Russia-Africa summit in Sochi and forgave Africa $20 billion in debt. In July 2023, Russia hosted the Russia-Africa Summit again in St. Petersburg, and despite the intention of the United States and other Western countries to exert pressure and obstruction before the meeting, more than a dozen African countries sent high-level delegations to participate in the meeting, and 49 countries sent representatives to participate in the meeting. At the meeting, Russia discussed the issue of food and fertilizers with African countries, and also offered to donate grain to African countries. In addition to the food issue, Russia has reached consensus with African countries on deepening cooperation in other areas. In short, Russia regards African countries as an important link in the construction of a new international order, and responds to the West's strategic encirclement by actively strengthening relations with African countries.
Looking at the six countries that Putin has visited in 2023 - Kyrgyzstan, China, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, half of them are countries in the post-Soviet space. After all, the CIS countries have always been a priority for Russian diplomacy.
Russia is committed to strengthening the centripetal force of the "post-Soviet space" and rallying neighboring countries through platforms such as the CIS, the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization;Relations with its ally Belarus by deepening Russian-Belarusian integration;Consolidate relations with Central Asian countries through economy, trade and investment, regional security, labor migration, and cultural influenceSimultaneous influence on Armenia and Azerbaijan through good offices.
However, the post-Soviet space has always been the "frontier front" of the great power game between Western countries and Russia. In this region, Russia's diplomatic efforts have not achieved the desired effect, on the contrary, the situation in all aspects is developing in a direction unfavorable to Russia: the leaders of Western countries such as France and Macron have visited Central Asian countries one after another, and Russia's traditional influence is gradually weakening;Armenia accuses Russia and the CSTO of militarily failing to give it the help it deserves, gradually moving closer to the West;Moldova joined the EU sanctions ...... against RussiaRussia and the West will continue to wrestle in the region for the foreseeable future.
Russian diplomacy has always been long-sleeved. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russian diplomacy has lost its inherent enthusiasm and activity. In 2023, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict enters a protracted war, Russia's diplomacy begins to regain its former vitality, and it is committed to reshaping the influence of major powers and building a new international order. Putin also attaches great importance to non-Western-led international organizations and international dialogue platforms, and actively promotes the development of the BRICS mechanism and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In 2024, Russia will hold the rotating presidency of the BRICS, and at the summit to be held in Russia in October, the BRICS countries will welcome new members. This will also be an important opportunity for Russia to carry out home diplomacy in 2024. Follow-up to the Russian-Ukrainian war
Combining the above military and diplomatic strategies that are beneficial to Russia, Putin will definitely be the biggest winner in 2024, and he will also be one of the greatest in Russian history, and his re-election in 2024 will be a matter of course.