First, Kweichow Moutai led the decline!Alcohol leads the decline!
In the last autumn of the bear market, the last hurdle of the group organization is to kill more, reduce positions, and send more, and the brewery continues to bleed, don't get close, and remember to avoid the last three until five years!
I have repeatedly stressed that the last ** of the bear market must be the completion of the debt repayment in the previous bull market, and the bull market often doubles the **. The solar cell new energy track has been halved**, while the Reiki track is still high, and Reiki is making up for the decline. The date the debt repayment is completed is the day the market bottoms out. It is usually cut in half, starting with a knee incision. The benchmark leader Kweichow Moutai fell to at least 1,200 yuan to test the double bottom. Don't say it's impossible. Both Alibaba and Tencent Holdings could cut it in half. There is no problem with Moutai being cut in half. The beer sector was the top decliner, and the Mao Index and Ning Combination were among the top decliners.
Second, on the news side, the CPI fell year-on-year in November, and did not continue the strength of the third quarter.
The continued weakening of the CPI means that domestic consumption is weak, and liquor has been the highest domestic consumption. In addition, Lin Yuan, head of private equity at Jiuniu, said that he no longer pays attention to the liquor industry. In the next 20 to 30 years, he will only focus on investment opportunities related to three diseases: high blood pressure, heart disease and diabetes.
In addition, the spirits market is experiencing a cooling. The fourth quarter is naturally the peak season for alcohol consumption. As a result, Luzhou Laojiao's behavior of ceding profits to retailers directly led to the collapse of high-end liquor. The boom in high-end liquor comes from expanding production first and then raising prices. Now, in addition to Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao also has the confidence to raise prices. Cellars have begun to take the lead in lowering ex-factory prices.
Therefore, the liquor sector, which has lasted for more than two years, still cannot withstand the pressure, and both foreign and domestic institutions have shown signs of loosening their chips. But every business is cyclical. After the end of the strong cycle, it will inevitably enter the weak cycle. This is the fate of every commodity, and it is also a fact.
Third, on the news side, the first economic work conference actively discussed economic work, pointing out that the basic trend of economic recovery and long-term improvement has not changed.
Next year, we must adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability. In terms of specific work, it is necessary to "focus on promoting high-quality development", formulate more policies conducive to stabilizing expectations, growth and employment, strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, and continue to implement proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies.
The meeting reflected the importance of policy in the face of economic work, and under the goal of "high-quality development", improving the economic structure is also the focus of work. In addition, the meeting proposed that it is necessary to carry out in-depth reform and improvement of state-owned enterprises, strengthen core functions, and improve core competitiveness. Enterprise has become a key word.
4. Kweichow Moutai: In 2023, a special dividend for shareholders will be implemented, and the cash dividend date will be December 20.
This does not affect the drop of spirits. Nowadays, liquor distributors in many parts of the country have a backlog of goods and cannot sell. The overall environment is not good, and consumption has declined. It is expected that the alcohol content will continue to decline.