Author |Yan Chixia.
The New York Times famously said, "The United States can destroy a country with a nuclear bomb, and Moody's can destroy a country with ratings." ”
For those who don't know much about finance, their first reaction when they see this famous quote is probably "What is this Moody's?"It has the power to destroy a country like a nuclear bomb.
In fact, Moody's is a well-known bond rating agency, and two companies, Standard & Poor's and Fitch, are known as the world's three major rating agencies, and these three companies almost control the global rating market.
Without exception, all three are U.S. companies and have been established for a long time.
Standard & Poor's Poole's & Poor's was founded in 1860, and Standard Statistics was founded in 1906, and the two merged in 1941. Moody's was founded in 1900 and Fitch in 1914.
In the early stages of development, the capital market in the United States was in urgent need of independent credit rating services, so credit rating agencies were born.
Last month, Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating outlook to "negative", and the U.S. was immediately anxious, which shows Moody's huge influence on global financial markets.
Just yesterday, Moody's downgraded the outlook of China's sovereign credit rating from "stable" to "negative", China's ** fell sharply in response, the market was wailing, and many investors who listened to the wind and rain immediately felt that China's economy was about to end.
First, such a downward adjustment does have the potential to lead to an increase in the cost of financing internationally for the countries concerned.
Second, we need to know that this time Moody's is not downgrading, but the rating outlook, that is, the possible upward and downward trend of the next rating.
Many people feel that Moody's is an authority in the industry, and although it is a US company, it has a strong sense of independence, after all, it just downgraded the US rating outlook last month.
In this way, people rely on professionalism and credibility to eat, and they will not be swayed by political power, so what people say is true.
In fact, the logic of this matter is very simple, it depends on whether you believe what Moody's said or not.
If you believe, then believe it all. You can't say that if the U.S. economy is not working, you will not believe it, and if China's economy is not working, you will not believe it.
Conversely, if you don't believe it, you don't believe it. You can't say that you will believe what the United States does, and you won't believe what China does.
If you read Moody's analysis and just say that China can't do it, but the United States can't do it, then you simply can't stand up after kneeling for a long time.
But if Moody's ** will be realized, then we don't need to panic at all, if the economies of China and the United States do not work together, it means that the world economy is finished.
China and the United States together have more than 1 3 of the world's economies, 1 4 of the world's total population, and 1 5 of the world's bilateral **.
To put it mildly, changes in Sino-US relations have directly affected the fate of the 1.7 billion people in both countries. In general, how the economies of China and the United States have a direct impact on the direction of the world economy.
In fact, as far as the debt level of the United States is concerned, the debt ceiling will be closed at every turn, and it will be replaced by other countries, and I don't know how many levels it will be lowered.
However, Moody's has maintained the U.S. sovereign credit rating at the highest level of AAA, and is the only one of the three major rating agencies to maintain the highest rating for the United States.
It was also last month that there was finally a downward movement, but it was only "stable" downgraded to "negative". And, like us, it's only the credit rating outlook that has been downgraded.
After all, when the United States is in a difficult economic and financial crisis, saying that the United States has a bad credit can not only tell the facts, but also be praised for being "objective and fair."
Although he always looks down on developing countries, Moody's is really biased towards the United States. Before the financial crisis that swept the world in 08, credit rating agencies such as Moody's rated mortgage bonds as the highest grade for many years, which also became the main reason for the subsequent financial crisis.
You must know that in the process of establishing global financial hegemony in the United States, these three major credit rating agencies have contributed a lot. They often start ideologically, deny the advantages of other political and economic systems, and become a political tool for the implementation of Western systems.
For a long time, these three major international credit rating agencies have been very double-standard, obviously biased towards the United States, Western countries and enterprises, but very strict with emerging market countries, giving low credit ratings.
This is also one of the important reasons for the unfairness and irrationality of the global financial market and the difficulty in financing and development of developing countries.
This time, for Moody's actions, China's Ministry of Finance responded as soon as possible:
China's economy is shifting to high-quality development, new drivers of China's economic growth are playing a role, and China has the ability to continue to deepen reforms and respond to risks and challenges. Moody's concerns about China's economic growth prospects and fiscal sustainability are unwarranted.
What we said was very polite, but the meaning could not be clearer, that is, Moody's misjudged the downgrade of China's sovereign credit rating.
To be honest, not only Moody's, but also the three major international credit rating agencies have many misjudgments.
Research by the International Monetary Organization shows that during the 1997-2002 Asian financial crisis alone, Moody's failed ratings eight times.
The last time Moody's adjusted the outlook for China's sovereign credit rating was in March 2016, when it also revised the outlook from "stable" to "negative". As a result, on the contrary, Chinese companies have received more US dollar investment in the global financial markets.
In contrast to Moody's assessment, a number of international organizations and institutions have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth and cast a "vote of confidence" in China's economy.
On November 7, the International Monetary Organization raised its forecast for China's economic growth this year to 54%, higher than previously expected, believes that China's contribution to global economic growth will exceed 30% this year.
On November 29, the OECD raised its forecast for China's economic growth this year and next, believing that China will remain the main driver of economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region and the world.
JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, UBS, Deutsche Bank and many other financial institutions have also recently raised their forecasts for China's economic growth this year to 5% to 5%.5%.
It is widely believed that China is the largest engine of global economic growth and will contribute one-third of global growth this year.
You may not know that in recent years, in the process of China's "Belt and Road" initiative, Moody's, Fitch, and Standard & Poor's, the three U.S. credit rating agencies, have done a lot of bad things.
They have been applying a double rating standard to countries and regions that are part of the Belt and Road Initiative, which are different from those of developed countries in the West, and have often rated the international financing products of Chinese giants as "junk-grade".
Just after Russia's invasion of Ukraine broke out last year, Moody's and Fitch downgraded Russia's credit rating to junk status.
Fitch said in a statement that the international sanctions that Russia has incurred are very severe, which is a huge shock to Russia's credit fundamentals and could undermine its willingness to repay its ** debt.
As a result, the exact opposite of their judgment has been, and so far there has been no default on Russia's sovereign debt.
Russia has repeatedly said it is perfectly capable of paying its debts, and has accused the United States and its allies of trying to artificially create a default because the country does have the money to pay its debts.
Not only that, since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February last year, the EU has imposed 11 rounds of sanctions on Russia, which involve Russia's energy, economy and trade and other fields.
But over the past year or so, Russia has gradually adapted to various Western sanctions. Russia's GDP grew by 55%, which is better than the assessment of the Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank of Russia.
Amundi Amundi, Europe's largest ** management company, said on the 23rd that it expects Russia's economic growth rate to be three times that of the euro area in 2024.
This means that major developed countries and regions such as the United States, the European Union, Japan, and Australia are no longer able to effectively sanction a country.
From this point of view, the three internationally renowned credit rating agencies in the United States are essentially nothing more than pawns of the United States in maintaining its financial hegemony.
We don't have to pay attention to their singing and declining, in the final analysis, they just make their own rules and become their own referees.
With the rapid economic growth of developing countries, the halo of the three major rating agencies will gradually be broken, and they will only be slapped in the face more and more often.
China's economic development is not up to you as an American company!
Let's ride a donkey and read the record book, let's see!