Valuation logic of shell resources

Mondo Finance Updated on 2024-01-30

The number of shells sold has increased, and the stock price of junk stocks has continued to **, which seems to be a paradox, but in fact, investors are more rational, and selling shells is also a net shell priority, and the stock price is not low, and the junk shells are still worthless.

Recently, there has been an increase in the number of cases of controlling stake transfers, and the change of major shareholders has become more frequent, and it seems that there are signs of asset restructuring heating up again. But in fact, compared with the previous asset restructuring, the current major shareholder change is obviously different, and there is no expectation that the crow will become a phoenix.

In the past, the reorganization was usually a company that was not operating well, and the new owner first negotiated with the original major shareholder to sign a restructuring intention agreement, followed by the negotiation of the disposal of junk assets and the restructuring of debts. In addition, the process may be accompanied by other agreements such as the issuance of new shares and the transfer of shares.

Investors can find that the interests of creditors, original major shareholders, new major shareholders, shareholding investors and other owners need to be finally realized through the stock price, and the incentive for the stock price is the high-quality assets injected by the new owner. On the one hand, it is not difficult to directly IPO, and on the other hand, in addition to poor performance stocks, there are many shell resource stocks that are not bad performance that can be bought. These are not the most important factors, the most direct reason is that many major shareholders have changed, and the new shareholders are not only interested in the shell of the listed company, but also the company's assets.

Many of the current major shareholder changes are just shareholder replacements, rather than large-scale asset replacements, that is, new shareholders may bring new assets, but the company's original assets are still retained. The new shareholders are often the upstream and downstream enterprises or peers of listed companies, so this new shareholder change is more like a strong alliance, rather than a shell listing, such a new cooperation model, it is doomed to those who have lost performance and have many problems ST** have no chance to participate.

In addition, for poor performance stocks such as ST, the company's cash dividends will definitely not meet the standard, and such companies will not be able to refinance and major shareholders for a long time after the reorganization, so the new owners who hold high-quality assets will generally not choose poor performance stocks for backdoor restructuring.

In fact, the implementation of the registration system means the end of the shell resources market, although there will occasionally be sporadic shell stock restructuring events, but it cannot change the fate of shell resources stocks to withdraw from the A-share stage. Under the registration system, the listing of high-quality assets has become more efficient and smooth, but the value of shell resources has continued to depreciate, coupled with the continuous promotion of the policy of strict delisting, the living space of shell stocks is getting smaller and smaller, on the one hand, the shrinking of the buyer's market, on the other hand, the compression of living space, the double pressure makes shell stocks more and more worthless.

In this context, gambling restructuring is naturally not too cost-effective, some opportunities can be met but not sought, if investors have to choose to wait for the rabbit, we must be ready to be prepared for a bamboo basket to fight for water, after all, the craziest stage of shell resources is gone.

Beijing Business Daily commentator Zhou Kejing.

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