Recently, Biden signed the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act worth $886 billion, which involves the Taiwan Strait issue, which deserves our special attention, because the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Brown and the Chinese side have only recently communicated with the top level of the Chinese side.
The Taiwan Strait issue has always been the most important and sensitive issue in China-US relations. Whether it is last year's Bali summit or this year's San Francisco summit, the position of China and the United States on the Taiwan Strait issue has always attracted international attention.
Over the past year or so, China-US relations have seen an unprecedented trough, especially the interruption of high-level dialogue between the Chinese and US militaries, which can be traced back to the visit of former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, which stirred up the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
What is particularly noteworthy is that after the San Francisco summit, high-level military interaction between China and the United States has gradually resumed, and it is now at a critical juncture. If the United States fails to handle the Taiwan Strait issue prudently, or even has inconsistencies in its words and deeds, sending a wrong signal to the "leading forces," it will seriously shake the political foundation of Sino-US relations. This could lead not only to history repeating itself, but also to more serious consequences.
First, let's take a look at the National Defense Authorization Act signed by Biden, which authorizes the U.S. military to brazenly intervene in the Taiwan Strait.
The bill stipulates that the U.S. military could provide Taiwan with extensive training to ensure what it calls a "multi-layered defense capability." The bill aims to enhance interaction between the militaries of both sides and encourage the sharing of intelligence.
To put it simply, this is to strengthen the political and military ties between the United States and Taiwan, and to extend the defense system established by the United States in the Asia-Pacific region to the Taiwan Strait.
Recently, the United States once again announced that it would send Taiwan about $300 million worth of equipment, which is in essence an act of probing.
In addition, the bill requires the U.S. Secretary of Defense to consult with the Secretary of State and obtain the Secretary of State's consent within three months of the bill's entry into force to conduct so-called "appropriate contacts" with the Taiwan authorities,* expand U.S.-Taiwan military cybersecurity cooperation and other related matters.
At the same time, the US Secretary of Defense will also need to regularly submit reports to Congress detailing the progress of the ** delivery to Taiwan, noting that the US military will "monitor" the actions of the Chinese People's Liberation Army in the Asia-Pacific region, especially in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
Finally, within six months, the US Secretary of Defense, in coordination with the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff and the director of national intelligence, must jointly submit a detailed analysis report to Congress explaining what risks and impacts Taiwan will have on the United States if it is subjected to a "continued military blockade."
This shows that the United States has not completely given up its intention of "using Taiwan to contain China" and has begun to prepare for the worst situation in the Taiwan Strait by signing the bill.
Overall, after the high-level phone call between China and the United States, Biden immediately signed the "National Defense Authorization Act", clearing the way for the US military to intervene in the Taiwan Strait and strengthen the connection between the United States and Taiwan. This is no accident.
Sino-US relations are in a cyclical rhythm of ups and downs, and the capriciousness of the United States on the Taiwan issue is an important reason.
Of course, the capriciousness of the United States is not only evident in the Taiwan Strait issue, but also permeates all aspects of bilateral relations.
At the diplomatic level, the United States remains interested in easing Sino-US relations, managing differences between the two sides, and avoiding the outbreak of conflict.
Once the situation in the Taiwan Strait changes, it will substantially harm the strategic interests of the United StatesHowever, at home, it must deal with partisan disputes, and it is necessary to constantly break through the bottom line of "strategic ambiguity" on the Taiwan Strait issue and explain to domestic hardliners.
However, if there are inconsistencies in internal and external signals and contradictions in diplomacy, this will greatly increase the difficulty of the U.S.-China relationship and unnecessarily hinder dialogue.
Given the seriousness and sensitivity of the Taiwan Strait issue, any maritime dynamics are likely to expand in the U.S.-China relationship, triggering serious geopolitical repercussions.
In addition, the essence of the Taiwan Strait issue has also undergone some profound changes compared with the past.
As China-US relations enter a "new normal", the situation in the Taiwan Strait needs to seek balance in the new context.
The core logic remains the same: at this stage, neither China nor the United States wants a direct conflict.
However, the United States needs to maintain its geopolitical position in the Asia-Pacific region and maintain some influence in the Western Pacific, which means that it needs to find one or more support points in its Asia-Pacific military alliance system.
The Korean Peninsula issue, the Taiwan Strait issue, and the South China Sea issue are all part of it.
In other words, if the United States wants to increase its presence in the Asia-Pacific region, it can only resort to provoking China, especially by taking advantage of the Taiwan Strait issue.
Obviously, the United States still continues to adopt a "zero-sum game" attitude toward the Taiwan Strait issue and intends to adhere to the so-called strategy of "using Taiwan to contain China."
Therefore, we need to formulate comprehensive countermeasures to ensure that we maintain the initiative in the U.S.-China relationship and guide and control the game situation between the two sides as a whole.