The real estate market occupies an important position in China's economy, but in recent years, with the tightening of regulatory policies, the plight of real estate companies, and the differentiation of the market, the future trend of the real estate market has aroused widespread attention and discussion. If many cities are limited and developers do not take land, is it the collapse of real estate or the collapse of real estate developers?
The multi-city limit is a policy that some cities have introduced to restrict housing prices, such as stipulating that the price of new houses shall not be lower than 85% or 90% of the record price, or shall not be lower than the average price of similar projects in the surrounding area, or shall not be lower than the last transaction price. The introduction of these policies is mainly to stabilize the expectations of the real estate market, prevent panic and sell-off caused by excessively fast housing prices, maintain the stability of local finances, and protect the interests of home buyers.
The impact of multi-city restrictions is both positive and negative. The positive impact is that it can avoid a cliff in housing prices, alleviate the panic in the market, protect the wealth effect of home buyers, maintain local land income, and stabilize the development of related industries.
The negative impact is that it may distort the supply and demand relationship of the market, inhibit the market-oriented adjustment of housing prices, affect the cash flow and destocking of real estate companies, and delay the structural adjustment of the real estate market.
Developers do not take land, because some real estate companies have shown a cautious or negative attitude in the land market, reducing the amount and amount of land acquired, and even giving up some high-quality land resources. The behavior of these real estate companies is mainly affected by the following aspects:
Tightening of financial conditions. In recent years, the state has continuously strengthened the supervision of real estate finance, and implemented rules such as the "three red lines", which have limited the debt level and financing channels of real estate enterprises, resulting in tight funds and rising costs for real estate enterprises.
Downturn in the sales market. Affected by the regulatory policy, as well as the decline in residents' income and consumption, the demand of the real estate market has weakened significantly, and the housing prices have also appeared to varying degrees, resulting in a decline in sales revenue and profits of real estate enterprises.
Land market**. Despite the overall weakening of the real estate market, the land market still maintains a high level, and some cities even have a land premium rate of more than 100%, which has led to an increase in the cost and risk of land acquisition for real estate companies.
The consequences of the developer's failure to take the land are also two-sided. On the one hand, it can effectively curb the overheating of the real estate market, reduce the leverage and risk of real estate enterprises, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market. On the other hand, it may also exacerbate the differentiation of the real estate market, resulting in an imbalance in land, affecting the long-term stability of the real estate market, as well as the fiscal revenue of the local government.
The changes in supply and demand in the real estate market are mainly affected by the following aspects:
Demographic changes. China's aging population and negative growth have led to a decrease in the potential demand for the real estate market, especially in some out-of-population cities, where the vacancy rate and de-urbanization cycle have risen.
Change in income level. China's economic growth has slowed and residents' income growth has slowed, leading to a decline in the purchasing power of the real estate market, especially in some areas with slower economic development, where both real estate market and sales have declined.
Changes in the policy environment. China's real estate regulation and control policies have been continuously strengthened, and measures such as purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, price restrictions, and sales restrictions have been implemented, which has led to the suppression of speculative demand in the real estate market, especially in some hot cities, and the transaction volume and sales volume of the real estate market have fallen.
The trend of the real estate market mainly depends on the changes in the relationship between supply and demand, as well as the changes in market expectations. Judging from the current situation, the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market has undergone major changes, from the overheated seller's market in the past to the buyer's market that is in danger of being overcooled.
This means that there will be more room for the real estate market, especially in some cities with low demand, surplus and tightened policies, and the magnitude of housing prices may be greater.
Of course, the trend of the real estate market is not static, different cities, different regions, different projects, will have different performance, some cities or will still maintain a stable or ** trend, some areas or will still be supported by factors such as population, industry, infrastructure, etc., some projects or will still rely on quality, service, innovation and other factors to attract the attractive.
The structural reform of the real estate market mainly refers to breaking the path dependence of the past and moving towards a more market-oriented, standardized and diversified development direction. Specifically, there are the following aspects:
It is necessary to promote the legislation and collection of real estate tax, realize the long-term regulation and control of the real estate market, break the expectation that housing prices will only rise and not fall, regulate the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market, increase the local fiscal revenue, and guide the reasonable flow of the real estate market.
It is necessary to improve the housing security system, improve the quality and quality of affordable housing, meet the needs of different levels and types of housing, alleviate the problem of housing difficulties, and promote social equity and harmony.
It is necessary to optimize the land mechanism, realize the marketization, standardization and diversification of the land market, break the dependence on land finance, regulate the supply and demand relationship of the land market, increase the utilization efficiency of land resources, and guide the rational flow of the land market.
It is necessary to innovate the development model of the real estate industry, realize the transformation and upgrading of the real estate industry, break the homogeneous competition of the real estate industry, adjust the structural relationship of the real estate industry, increase the added value of the real estate industry, and guide the diversified development of the real estate industry.
The policy toolbox of the real estate market mainly refers to the flexible use of different policy means according to different market conditions to achieve precise regulation and control of the real estate market, break the one-size-fits-all policy ideas, adjust the expected relationship of the real estate market, increase the adaptability of the real estate market, and guide the stable development of the real estate market. Specifically, there are the following aspects:
It is necessary to implement differentiated regulation and control policies according to different city types, such as for first-tier cities and hot cities, more stringent policies such as purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, price restrictions, and sales restrictions can be implemented, and for second-tier cities and third- and fourth-tier cities, more flexible policies such as destocking and subsidies can be implemented, and more incentive support, preferential treatment, and opening policies can be implemented for characteristic cities and emerging cities.
For example, for the stage when the market is overheated, we can implement a tighter monetary policy, fiscal policy, credit policy, etc., for the stage when the market is too cold, we can implement a more loose monetary policy, fiscal policy, credit policy, etc., and for the stage when the market is stable, we can implement a more neutral monetary policy, fiscal policy, and credit policy.
For example, for real estate enterprises, more stringent regulatory policies, risk policies, tax policies, etc., for home buyers, more reasonable tax policies, subsidy policies, security policies, etc., and for renters, more perfect rental policies, service policies, and protection policies can be implemented.
To sum up, we can see that the real estate market has entered a new stage of development after years of rapid growth, facing multiple challenges and opportunities.
The multi-city limit and the developer's refusal to take land are a manifestation of self-regulation and self-adaptation of the real estate market, as well as a structural and cyclical change in the real estate market, which does not necessarily mean the collapse of the real estate market or the collapse of real estate developers.
As long as we can adhere to the structural reform of the real estate market and flexibly use the policy toolbox of the real estate market, we may achieve the healthy development of the real estate market and the transformation and upgrading of real estate developers.
Of course, this is not to say that we can be overly optimistic about the future of the real estate market, nor that we can be too pessimistic about the current situation of real estate developers. We need to keep a clear head, recognize the complexity and uncertainty of the real estate market, and also maintain a cautious attitude to guard against risks and fluctuations in the real estate market.
We must have both confidence and patience, determination and wisdom, innovation and standardization, so that the real estate market can become the stabilizer of China's economy and real estate developers can become the driving force of China's economy.
Finally, I would like to ask you, what are your thoughts and expectations for the future of the real estate market? You are welcome to leave a message in the comment area and ** this topic with me. Thank you for reading and have a great day!