Recently, there has been polarization in the Philippines over the South China Sea**. On the one hand, some people advocate continuing to be tough on China on the South China Sea issue, but on the other hand, some pragmatic people in the Philippines have adopted the method of "forcing the palace" and asking Marcos Jr. to resolve the dispute with China in the South China Sea through dialogue. This action has attracted great attention and support from the Philippine Elite Alliance.
Let's start by looking at the background of this event. Recently, the Philippines has frequently sent ships into the South China Sea to try to carry out illegal activities in waters such as Ren'ai Jiao and Scarborough Shoal, which has seriously violated China's territorial sovereignty. After China took the necessary measures in accordance with the law, the Philippine side did not rein in its provocative acts, but continued to strengthen its military posture and criticize China. These actions have not only had a bad impact on China-Philippines relations, but also had a negative impact on regional security and stability.
Philippine political, business, and academic elites recognize that the South China Sea dispute is not the whole story of China-Philippines bilateral relations, and that the two countries' common interests far outweigh their differences. They unanimously agreed that it is the responsibility of Marcos Jr. to resolve disputes in the South China Sea through dialogue and consultation. Collectively, these individuals demanded that Marcos Jr. take action to engage in dialogue with China to resolve disputes in the South China Sea. They believe that the current situation in the South China Sea is a rising risk, and Marcos Jr. must be aware of this and take action.
Philippine Deputy Secretary Domingo stressed in an interview that China is one of the most important economic and trade partners of the Philippines. The Philippines should be rational in handling China-Philippines relations and proceed from the perspective of the overall situation. Business people also said that the tense situation in the South China Sea will damage the economic and trade exchanges between China and the Philippines, and hope that the two countries can actively engage in dialogue and properly manage differences. Philippine academics and think tanks also called on Marcos Jr. to treat China-Philippines relations rationally and maintain balanced diplomatic relations, which is in line with the strategic interests of the Philippines.
There is a reason for the position of these elites. The Philippines has close economic and trade relations with China, and the business community is a direct beneficiary. If Sino-Philippine relations deteriorate, economic and trade cooperation will be greatly affected. In addition, the Philippines has not been able to make real progress on its illegal claims in the South China Sea, and it is futile for the Philippines to try to co-opt foreign forces to stir up trouble in the South China Sea. In order to safeguard their own interests and regional stability, the Philippine elite urges ** to engage in dialogue with China to resolve disputes.
The Philippine top brass has been trying to satisfy its own interests through extreme actions in the South China Sea. They frequently send ships into China's territorial waters and try to win over foreign forces to support their illegal claims. China has taken the necessary measures to safeguard its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, and has shown restraint and inclusiveness.
China and the Philippines have reached a "gentlemen's agreement" at Ren'ai Jiao, whereby the Philippines has pledged not to strengthen the illegal beaching**, while China has allowed the Philippines to transport basic daily necessities to the "beach"**. The agreement is aimed at managing the situation and avoiding a deterioration in China-Philippines relations. However, the Philippines now wants to violate the agreement and unilaterally undermine the status quo, which has touched China's bottom line.
China has shown sufficient restraint and tolerance, but the Philippines should not underestimate China's determination to safeguard its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests. If the Philippines does not understand this, it will damage its own interests and have a negative impact on regional stability.
Overall, the Philippines' illegal claims in the South China Sea are untenable. China has done its best, but the Philippines cannot understand China's goodwill. Marcos Jr. recently said that the Philippines needs to make a "paradigm shift", which is actually a blanket repudiation of the South China Sea policy of the Duterte era. The Philippines hopes to further expand its illegal interests in the South China Sea by adopting a new hardline policy.
In any case, the Philippines should not underestimate China's determination, nor should it think that it can achieve its goals by "touching porcelain". The appeal of the Philippine elite for Marcos Jr.** to resolve the South China Sea dispute through dialogue with China is a wise move. The Philippines should resolve disputes through dialogue and consultation, rather than escalating tensions through provocation and confrontation. The cooperation and friendly relations between China and the Philippines are in the common interests of the two countries and are conducive to maintaining regional peace and stability. It is hoped that the Philippines will heed these calls and take positive actions to promote the development of the regional situation in a more stable and harmonious direction.