Wang Shi once again ** China's real estate future, if there is no accident, or will be accurate again!
Wang Shi, who has a perspective on the future of China's property market, can be excluded. In 2018, he proposed to control the scale of investment, maintain sufficient liquidity of the company's funds, and survive in the property market. At that time, China's property market was in a stage of explosive prosperity and rapid growth.
Although Wang Shi is now an honorary director of Vanke and has retired, he is still very important about the changes in the country's real estate market and the changing trend of the country's real estate industry in the future.
Wang Shi said in an interview that in fact, it is possible to compare the current real estate market in our country with the real estate market in Japan in the 80s of the last century. As a result, we can draw inspiration from this to make a clear assessment of the real estate market.
Japan's real estate bubble burst early, and even before large real estate developers were desperately expanding and borrowing to buy land, ordinary people had to empty their entire wallets and even use investment leverage to buy houses. Everyone believes that a house is the best investment product, and the price will last**.
However, as more and more houses are built, people's wallets are getting smaller and smaller. People who can afford to buy a house already have a lot of homes, and people who can't afford to buy a house may not be able to afford a house for the rest of their lives with such high housing prices.
Houses can't be sold, and developers are taking out high-interest loans to buy land every day. Due to the unsold houses, the developer was unable to repay the debt, and unfinished buildings gradually appeared.
The housing bubble began to slowly burst and continued to expand, eventually leading to a crash.
And the house, at this time, has become a hot potato, those who have a large number of properties in their hands, try everything to sell the house, but at such a high **, **there will be people to take over.
Subsequently, relevant policies were introduced, which controlled the debt arrears of real estate companies and the emergence of dilapidated buildings to a certain extent. However, the introduction of these policies is aimed at normalizing the real estate market, and may require a certain adjustment cycle.
In fact, from the first housing reform to the first half of 2021, China's housing prices have lasted for more than 20 years. Even in some small counties, the house price can be sold for more than 10,000 yuan per square meter.
Under the influence of the epidemic and various external factors, housing prices began to fall in the second half of 2021, and second-hand houses in first-tier cities even decreased in some areas.
Housing prices are not the most worrisome, as the head of some real estate companies seems to be focusing on debt, unfinished property defaults and other problems, but also to many speculative people sounded the alarm.
In particular, these non-state-owned real estate companies seem to be unable to survive after experiencing problems such as debt crises and unfinished buildings, which makes all home buyers worried. It will take time to solve these problems.
The five major state-owned banks have issued more than 30 billion yuan of loans to these non-state-owned real estate companies, which can ease the pressure on these real estate companies to some extent.
In addition, localities have begun to reduce the proportion of down payments and reduce mortgage interest rates. Some places no longer intervene in housing prices, but let the commercial housing be owned again, and the housing prices are determined by the market.
From the current point of view, the implementation of these policies will either take a certain amount of time, because judging from the relevant data published on the main platforms, the transaction volume of both new and second-hand houses has not increased significantly.
With the promulgation of Document No. 14, we are speeding up the construction of affordable housing, so that commercial housing can return to commodity attributes, so that young people in the city can live and work in peace and contentment. In the future, the real estate industry will usher in a big change!
By speeding up the construction of affordable housing, the number of affordable housing in large cities will increase rapidly in a short period of time, which means that some young people will not have to spend six wallets and be saddled with 30 years of debt just to have a house to live in.
People can spend less money and live in more comfortable low-cost and public rental housing. Therefore, in the future, renting and buying a house will become two options for people, and home sales may also be affected more.
Like the blind expansion of real estate companies' debts before, although there are relevant policies to help, if they can't get through, they are likely to be thrown out due to debt defaults and other problems.
According to data released by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, there are 600 million housing units in the country, and if calculated as a family of three, each family can get more than one housing on average. The surplus of real estate is an indisputable fact.
According to the data provided, there is a more serious problem in the future, namely the declining birth rate and the ageing of the population. There are experts** that by 2023, the number of newborns may be less than 8 million.
This also means that there is already a surplus of homes, and with the declining birth rate and the departure of the older generation, we will face a serious surplus of houses in the future, and a family can own multiple properties.
In this case, it is unlikely that there will be just-needed housing, and the construction of some improved housing may be scarce, and the second-hand housing market may be even more bleak!
Wang Shi, honorary chairman of Vanke, also made a corresponding **, he said, after this wave of property market adjustment, our country's real estate market will achieve a soft landing.
In fact, it is not unreasonable for Wang Shi to make such a ** on China's real estate market. Our country, unlike other countries, is on the path of socialism, and when there is a problem, the state will intervene. With strong state intervention, a soft landing in the real estate sector is normal.
From last year to now, with the introduction of these favorable real estate policies70, there has been a certain increase in new home sales, but the growth rate has been relatively slow compared to previous years.
Write at the end. A house is related to the life of a family, and for most ordinary people, it is common to buy a house and empty six wallets and carry a debt for 30 years.
However, in the current situation, if you are an investor, real estate will not be a good investment product. But for those who just need it, in the current situation, real estate can be a soft landing. As a last resort, let's wait.
A drop of $2,000 per square meter, a 100-square-meter house, can save $200,000. With this 200,000 yuan, how long can you rent the house for renovation, you know it in your heart!