On December 28, the new energy sector rose sharply, the photovoltaic sector rose by more than 3%, and many rose by more than 5%, did the new energy industry usher in a turnaround?Does the new energy industry still need to continue to reduce inventory levels?
The destocking of the industry is the most concerned factor in the medium term, because the inventory cycle is often an important harbinger of the profit cycle.
Historical data shows that when the entire industry moves from actively reducing inventory to passively clearing inventory and then actively increasing inventory, there are many investment opportunities, especially the judgment of the inflection point of the earnings cycle.
When the sentiment of the industry chain is actively increasing inventory** there is a positive signal, the expectation of earnings recovery is usually stronger.
The rate at which inventories change is influenced by both supply and demand. Whether it is photovoltaic or new energy vehicles, it can be examined from both the demand side and the supply side.
From the perspective of the supply side, after experiencing the expansion cycle, the supply side gradually shrinks, and from the perspective of the large cycle, the demand side of photovoltaic (such as new energy vehicles) is improving, and once the supply side gradually reduces the objective demand, the inventory will be quickly digested.
Looking ahead, we will actively focus on the opportunity for the industry to enter a state of inventory increase after a round of inventory destocking.
Therefore, the ** of the upstream or midstream is a very important pre-line indicator. If it is gradual, and continues to improve within 1-2 months, then it will correspond to the reduction of inventory or supply, which is expected to drive the recovery of sentiment in the entire industry chain.
In a cycle of price increases and inventory expansion, it may bring about the market expectation of the profitability recovery of the entire industry chain. So, keep an eye on the library.
The change of the deposit end and the ** end is a key pre-line indicator to judge the inflection point of the profit cycle.
This article was first published in the interpretation of the financial outlet, if there is **, please indicate the source.