A few years ago, there was a particularly popular idea in the market: real estate is a reservoir of Chinese currency.
The theory simply summarizes that China has issued a large amount of money (m2 is nearly 25 times), if there is no real estate market with the same amount of money that is constantly rising in price to absorb these currencies, they will act on ordinary people's goods, and there will be severe inflation in China.
Such absurd logic actually became the mainstream at that time, and it can only be said that the marketing methods of Chinese real estate developers are too powerfulOr maybe people don't care if it's true or not, as long as the house price can be kept **, and their paper wealth has been increasing, it is enough.
Of course, in order to cooperate with and explain the rising housing prices, strange propositions such as the mother-in-law theory and the middle-class threshold theory were also born at that time.
Yes, in the final analysis, it is all selling anxiety, just like selling health products, as long as you repeatedly shout loudly, the technical content is not high (but it is the most effective), only the reservoir theory is cleverly packaged by economics, and at first glance it is indeed bluffing, not to mention that there are many scholars and big V endorsements.
Looking back, in fact, no matter what kind of voice appeared in the market at that time, the ultimate goal was only one, and that was to continue to push up housing prices. Even by the most conservative house-price-to-income ratio, by 2016 at the latest, China's housing prices had completely bubbled, and everyone was in the same boat, just like the Hong Kong property market.
At this point, it is only the butt that decides the head, and the stance determines the point of view. From local **, to developers, to speculative tenants, to ordinary rigid needs, everyone can't bear the pain of housing prices, so there can only be one voice in the market, and it doesn't matter whether it's right or not.
However, the laws of economics will not follow you in the act, and after the epidemic, the reservoir theory was quickly falsified, and almost no one mentioned it again, as if it had never appeared before.
Because the reality is that with the sluggish real estate market, it is not a commodity **comprehensive**, but comprehensive**, starting from August this year, China's CPI has continued to decline, and in November. 2% and -05%, one and a half feet has entered deflation.
In fact, as long as you know a little bit about history, you won't be fooled by the words of real estate developers. Whether it is the bubble economy in Japan, the financial crisis in the United States, or the debt crisis in Europe, the bursting of any asset bubble in history has brought about contraction and stagflation, not inflation.
Of course, you can't throw all the pots to real estate developers, in the final analysis, one is willing to fight, one is willing to suffer, the Chinese are too bold, the gambling is too high, it is said that casinos around the world are full of Chinese.
It is true that too much money is issued to cause inflation, but this is only the first half of inflation, and its full version is that too much money chases too few goods, and the reservoir theory insidiously removes the second half.
Because if the second half of the sentence is added, it is clear that the theory cannot be established in China.
China is the world's factory, with a manufacturing share (28.).4%) is the same as the next three countries, Japan, and Germany combined (in order. 2% and 58%), China has issued a lot of money, but it also produces a lot of goods, and even if there is no reservoir of real estate, there will be no inflation.
In fact, the main problem of China's economy at present is not that there is too much money at all, but that there is too much production of goods, that is, overcapacity, which cannot be sold, and the effective demand of society as a whole is insufficient.
Take, for example, this round of inflation in US imperialism. No matter how much currency China issues and how much money it can exaggerate in the United States after the epidemic, Powell expanded the Fed's balance sheet by more than 2 times in one go, from 4 trillion to nearly 9 trillion at the peak, but the over-issuance of money is still not the main cause of this round of US inflation.
The main reason is the sudden interruption of the ** chain and geopolitical conflicts, so the United States ** is not a reservoir of the dollar, just like any time in history, the US stock market collapsed, and the US economy will only fall into depression.
Of course, most of the above, buyers may not be unaware, as mentioned above, everyone just doesn't care, in the face of the myth of the huge real estate get-rich, which may have never been seen in human history, all common sense is not important, and no one is not carried away by the windfall.
So what exactly is the reservoir of China's currency?Quite simply, it is the savings of the rich, and most of China's sky-high currency lies in the bank accounts of a few elites, which cannot be spent at all, and cannot be spent at all.
How to understand it, a little bit of popular science. Usually economics divides a country's money supply into three levels, that is, M0, M1 and M2 that we often see in the news, where:
M0 represents the cash in circulation, that is, the central bank only prints so much money, M1 and M2 are just a bookkeeping method carried out in the process of credit creation and on the basis of M0, roughly defining M1 = M0 + demand deposits, M2 = M1 + time deposits.
At present, the supply of M0, M1 and M2 in China is 1086 trillion, 6447 trillion and 28823 trillion, that is, the scale of demand deposits is 54 trillion, and the scale of time deposits is 234 trillion.
So, the answer is comingThe central bank is releasing water in the sky, but it is clear that most of it has been picked up by the richAs the saying goes, love flows to people who are not short of love, and money flows to people who are not short of money.
Of course, this is not a Chinese characteristic, all financial systems operate like this, for example, before the epidemic, Musk's net worth was only about 20 billion US dollars, and after a ** release by the Federal Reserve, his net worth has increased 10 times, and it is now close to 250 billion US dollars.
As for why the money does not flow to the bottom, this is another question, there is time to discuss it, simply put, since 08 years, the entire world economy has been completely casinod, monetary easing will only push up assets, but not bring technological progress and efficiency improvement.
There is nothing new under the sun, I remember that when the technology stock bubble in 01, Wall Street analysts also invented a variety of bizarre valuation methods to match and explain the stock prices of Internet companies**, and as a result, a similar story happened in the Chinese property market, believe me, it will happen in the future.