In the third year, it has become a ritual at the end of the year to prepare a review of the hot words of the year.
The capital market in 2023 is also worth our record. In the past year, from the twists and turns of economic recovery, to the evolution of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle, to the changes in the domestic and foreign markets, every step seems to be walkingHistorical nodes
The excavation base will passEleven**CircleHot Words of the Yearto thread the needle. Farewell to 2023, even if you are disappointed, a lot of hard work is in the past;Ushering in 2024, "when the flower is better than last year's red", don't look back, look forward.
Hot word 1: "The year of transition".
The investment in 2023 has not become better because of the past year's **, the index turned a loss in the box movement in the first half of the year, and the 3200-point Nagasaka slope was even more difficult after the battle, 3000 points, 2900 points, it seems that there are countless encounters and endless waiting.
This year, the "turning point" in the hope was finally disappointedProgress of domestic economic recoveryThe intensity of US dollar rate hikeswithMarket liquidity pressuresThe three major expectation differences suppressed the recovery of confidence in the A** field, and the consensus expectation of "US recession, China recovery" at the beginning of the year gradually changed to "a soft landing in the United States, and China's growth is facing phased challenges".
Against this backdrop, cyclical growth expectations were adjusted, and the performance of A-shares in the global market was lower than market expectationsBSE 50CSI 2000In addition to micro-cap indexes, the rest of the major broad-based indices generally fell, and the ChiNext index led the market.
But the long-term characteristics of the asset, are:Carries risks, whileReduce riskHow fully has the risk been released now?The current A-share stock-to-bond earnings ratio(Dividend yield of all A-shares, 10-year Treasury yield).088, which has reached the average since 05 years+2x standard deviation(3-year rolling). (*wind, Haitong**).
Review of major events at home and abroad in 2023.
Data**: wind, Huaxia**.
Hot word 2: comprehensive registration system
Wu Xiaoqiu, a well-known economist, said: The establishment of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, the reform of the division of shares, and the reform of the registration system have taken shape in China's capital market over the past 30 yearsThree monuments
On February 20 this year, with the "ringing of the gong" of 10 new shares, the A-share comprehensive registration-based trading rules began to be implemented, and China's capital market began to officially enterThe era of the full registration system, is a big event in 23 years.
What is the impact of the advent of the era of the comprehensive registration system on the A** market and ordinary investors?
First, the increase in the supply of ** under the registration system is gradual, and the impact on the capital side of the A** market in the short and medium term may be limited, but in the medium and long term, the issuance efficiency has been improved, which will inject more fresh blood into the A-shares.
Under the registration system, we can enjoy the opportunity of enterprise development earlier, which corresponds to the local volatility of the market or will increase, and the simple and crude "comprehensive bull market" will not be easy to launch, as the game between the plates intensifiesMore structural opportunities are presented。Ordinary investors may be inclined to entrust public offerings** and other institutions to invest to promote A-sharesThe investor structure is moving towards "institutionalization".
Second, the registration system is a common practice adopted by mature capital markets, and the U.S. stock market has gradually stepped out of a round of "slow bulls" with a hundredfold increase after the establishment of the registration systemThe A-share system is further moving closer to mature markets。China's capital market, which is constantly moving forward in the midst of change, will become more prosperous and mature, and it is more worthy of our participation.
Hot word three: TMT + high dividend
Data**: wind, Huaxia**.
At the end of each year, we are accustomed to taking stock of the annual ** and the main line of the market, and carving a seal for this year, such as the "Ning Combination" of the "Mao Index Year" in 2020, the "Coal Content" in 2022, and in 2023, the key word of the main line is ".TMT+ high dividends
In the context of weak economic recovery, from the perspective of the industry, "food and drink + electricity + real estate chain" is lonely, and "TMT + high dividend" has become a bright spot in 23 years of A-share investment, with high dividends on the left hand and technology growth on the rightDumbbell strategyIt was also recognized by more investors in this year.
Since the beginning of the year, catalyzed by AIGC-related concepts and superimposed on the impact of spring restlessness, the TMT sector has become the main line of the market. In the follow-up sector deduction process, the TMT sector focused on economic recovery, stimulus policies, overseas liquidity, sector performance and other expectations, showing ".Hot and cold alternatelyBut the overall performance during the year still significantly outperformed the market.
Supported by the macro recovery and the limited profitability elasticity of listed companies, capital problems and the characteristics of "asset shortage", the high-dividend style has outperformed the major broad-based indices since August last year, and has seen a certain absolute return, becoming the hidden investment main line of A-sharesDefensive attributes
Hot word four: sinking market value
This year many investors are because of a calledTen thousandMicro-cap stocks（8841431.WI) began to recognize the charm of the strategy of sinking market capitalization. When a number of A-share ** broad-based indices fell into the sadness of falling for two consecutive years or even three years, the Wind Micro-Cap Index retained more than 40% of its gains during the year, with the sea and the flames on the other. （*wind）
Of course, because of the compilation rules, it is almost impossible for the Wind Micro Cap Index to have a corresponding index product, but it does stimulate the market's enthusiasm for the sinking of market capitalization, and even such a voice appears:The lower the market capitalization, the better the performance
If the time dimension is extended to after the Spring Festival in 2021, then this advantage is even more obvious. At that time, after more than two years, it was about to usher in a wave of style change, and the road of "riding a white horse to go through three passes" encountered obstacles, and the preference of institutions and northbound funds began to change from the former "big is beautiful" to "market value sinking".
Data**: Wind, Industrial Securities Strategy.
The pattern of "two days" with small and medium-cap and small-cap and micro-cap stocks is a true portrayal of A-shares in recent years. From CSI 300 to CSI 500, CSI 1000 to CNI 2000 to CSI 2000, from STAR 100 to ChiNext 200, index products are becoming more and more abundant, providing investors with new possibilities for continuous "sinking".
Of course, everything has a cycle. The current price-to-earnings ratio of the Wind ** stock index is only 104 times, at 2At the 8% quantile, relative to the Shanghai Composite Index (P/E ratio TTM 12.).7 times), which has turned from a valuation premium at the beginning of '21 to a significant discount,"Set up the stage with weight, and sing in a hurry"In the future, it may also be worth believing. （*wind，2023-12-1）
Hot word five: the long season
In April and May this year, the spring blossoms in the land of China, and the life suspense drama "The Long Season" was screened on Tencent**, which was the first time that the five words "Long Season" had a popular metaphor, and many investors who were still trapped by rights and interests suddenly felt that it seemed very appropriate to use this word to describe the current mood.
In the downward cycle of the A** market in the past two years, many equity ** are still losing money, and investor confidence is quite damagedFor the first time, the return was negative for two consecutive years, the long season is full of anxiety in everyone's heart.
In fact, the more difficult the time, the more we should believe that the market cycle goes back and forth, and countless clues tell us that the most difficult moment is actually the darkness before the dawn. The current 3-year rolling annualized return of the partial equity hybrid base is, more than in the last seventeen yearsMore than 99%.The time is low, and it has come to a point of inundation.
Data**: Wind, calculated using Wind Partial Stock Mixed Index (885001WI), the base date of the Wind Partial Equity Mixed ** Index is 2003-12-31, and the 3-year rolling annualized return data starts from 2007, as of 2023-12-20, past data are not indicative of future performance.
Whether you believe it or not, many clues are already emerging, we will always live in the cycle of reincarnation, and this time, there is a high probability that it is really close to the end. "Three years without opening" ushered in "opening for three years", and patient people will wait for a new round of distribution of wealth.
Hot word 6: the acceleration of ETFs
But in a market that has been so choppy this year, not everyone is slowing down. Compared to previous years, some investors have picked up the pace, as evidenced by the skyrocketing share of ETFs**. After a long season, ETFs have stood on the cusp and accelerated in the Chinese market.
Wind data shows that as of December 19, the total share of ETFs in the whole market has exceeded the 2 trillion mark, hitting a record high, an increase of 39% from the beginning of this year, and an annualized growth rate of 22 in the past three years3%，More than 198%The era of indexation investment in the domestic capital market has undoubtedly come. (Data**: wind).
In this year, the scale of ChinaAMC SSE 50 ETF exceeded 75 billion yuan, and the share of ChinaAMC Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF exceeded 100 billion, hitting a record high. In the ETF issuance market, the initial offering scale of ChinaAMC SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 100 ETF reached 389.5 billion yuan, the latest scale exceeded 685 billion yuan (data**: WIND, SHENZHEN STOCK EXCHANGE, SSE, as of 2023-12-21), broad-based ETF has become a well-deserved gold absorber this year.
Hot word 7: multi-asset allocation
Depression is not all there is to 2023, although life is countless hardships, there is always something new and moving. This year, the equity market underperformed at the same timeMerchandise**qdii**Bonds**It has become a small luck in the weakness, especially the explosive growth of the scale of bonds.
According to the data of Galaxy**, in the past year ending December 15, 2023, the average net value growth rate of commodities**, QDII**, and bonds** has recorded positive values, respectively. 99%, once again verified to be goodMulti-asset allocationThe importance of the matter. (Data**: Galaxy**, as of 2023.)12.15, Galaxy ** first-level classification).
Hot word 8: The twists and turns of economic recovery
Entering 2023, although the economy has entered a natural upward process from the bottom as the impact of the health event gradually subsides, butResidents are expected to weakenDomestic demand is slow to recoverReal estate downturnAgainst the backdrop, the path of economic recovery continues to be tortuous.
Period** of the fallbackIt has further amplified the volatility of the economy, especially since the second quarter of this year, the decline in nominal GDP growth has led to the market always worrying about corporate earnings, which has also become an important reason for the previous market.
In fact, the gradual shift from high-speed growth to high-quality growth is inevitable after a country's economic aggregate reaches a certain level. The gradual de-realisation of the economy has become an objective feature of China's current economic structural transformation. The process of slowing down real estate demand is indeed a process of the first stage of the potential center of the economyEconomic transformation fosters new momentumprocess.
Looking forward to next year, on the one hand, it is expected that the main body represented by ***Increased ability and willingness to increase leverageThe pace of the first and second quarters is expected to achieve a more obvious improvement in economic dataOn the other hand, the drag from real estate in the second half of the year may gradually enter the "second half", and as the import demand of the world's major economies stabilizes and recoversExternal demand bottomed outIt may provide structural support for the domestic economy.
Hot word 9: overseas interest rate hikes and interest rate cuts
A-shares and even global investors have been raising interest rates for a long time. From the rapid rise in Fed rate hike expectations at the end of 2021 to the start of the interest rate hike cycle in early 2022 and has continued until now, the Fed has been in the past two yearsThe cumulative rate hike is 525bp
Although the "fighting state" of A-shares in the past two years cannot be completely blamed by the Federal Reserve, every hawk and dove signal will affect the nerves of shareholders and affect the trend of A-shares.
Interest rate hikes boost the U.S. dollar index and increase pressure on the renminbi to depreciateInterest rate hikes have led to an upward trend in risk-free interest rates, suppressing the valuation of the A-share growth sectorInterest rate hikes have led to increased volatility in overseas markets and increased risk aversion, affecting the confidence of A-share investors....Finally,Expectations of rate cuts will become a reality in 2024
First, at the December Fed FOMC meeting, not only the dot plot hinted at a possible year in 2024Three rate cutsPowell also publicly stated that the interest rate cut discussion is "gradually coming into view";Second, inflation and employment data have given the Fed a "step down" for easingThirdly,The iron law of 100 years of historyIn the "election year" in which the incumbent is trying to seek re-election, the tone of the Fed's monetary policy is invariably "dovish".
The inflection point of global liquidity is approaching, and ** assets are more beneficial. In addition, compared with developed markets, emerging markets are more sensitive to liquidity inflection points, and are expected to usher in the addition and repatriation of global funds.
Hot word ten: negative feedback on the capital side
The reversal of pricing and the ignition of trading enthusiasm need incremental funds to promote, and the "stock market" is the most important contradiction directly faced by the current market. In the volatility adjustment for two consecutive years, the capital side has fallen into negative feedback, and the market has a poor money-making effect, according to the analysis of sellers, the lethality of this round of bear market has exceeded that of 2018.
If the 2019-21 period of public offering** expansion and acceleration of northbound capital inflows is defined as a positive feedback on the capital side, then this year has emerged in the long seasonThe new "freezing point" of the public offeringandThe northward inflow slowed downIt is a kind of negative feedback on the capital side.
In 2024,Changes in investor behaviorIt may bring incremental funds to alleviate the negative feedback on the capital side. This year, on the one hand, Huijin's increase in holdings can play a quasi-"leveling" role, and on the other hand, the adjustment of the rhythm of the financing side and the new regulations of major shareholders have achieved results. Next year, capital market policies may continue to stabilize market liquidity expectations.
With the "Action Plan for the Reform of the Investment Side of the Capital Market" gradually approaching, it is expected to shift from the financing side to a new stage of investment reform that pays more attention to the investor experience, and it is expected that one of its highlights is to increase the introduction of medium and long-term funds, including optimizing accounting treatment, establishing a long-term assessment mechanism, and expanding the pension through tax incentives.
Coverage of the second and third pillars, etc.;The second highlight is to continue to promote the optimization of the public offering** structure, focusing on the development of passive products such as ETFs. (*CITIC**).
Then at some point and now,A double shock of money and confidenceIt may lead to an eventual reversal.
Hot word eleventh: the threshold of industry change
This year is a year for the public fundraising to go halfway up the mountain and start again. This year, the 25th anniversary of the public offering** seems to be facing "three major difficulties": market volatility and excess returns are "difficult";Investor confidence is insufficient, and it is "difficult" to issue a new issue;The performance of the stock ** is poor, and the operation of funds is "difficult".
ChangeIt has become a key word in the industry, and the highlights are still seen by everyone. **The investment advisory pilot has become routineFloating rate products are launchedETF developmentRegular issuance and high-quality expansion of public REITsand so on are all breakthroughs at the threshold. According to statistics, as of the end of June 2023, the market has entered the "Wanji era", with a total scale of 2769 trillion yuan, for the first time, surpassed the scale of bank wealth management and moved towards the "top of asset management".
Looking back on the past 25 years, the public offering industry has also experienced many ups and downs, but as long as we stick to our original intention, face difficulties, seek flexibility, and go through the long season, it will be a spring of flowers.
Soon, the new year will begin.
Looking ahead to 2024, there are still many uncertainties ahead, but positive factors are converging. The shift of global monetary policy, the continuous increase of domestic policies to stabilize growth, the repair space of A-share valuations, and the expectation that capital market policies will continue to stabilize liquidity will provide strong support for the market.
The world of investing has never been easy, and everyone is looking for a balance between risk and opportunity. But history always tells us that every winter is full of spring flowers. We come from the wind and rain at the bottom, and we will overcome the wind and rain with tenacity.
Cold days always mean that the cold is passing, and things in the world, as long as the vitality is not extinguished, there will always be a day to raise your head. Looking forward, don't look back, "I am at the end of the old things, and the flowers will still bloom in the coming year", and look forward to the first ray of light in 2024.
Risk Warning. 1. ChinaAMC STAR 50 ETF and SSE 50 ETF are both *** mainly investing in the constituent stocks and alternative constituent stocks of the underlying index, and their expected risks and returns are higher than those of hybrid, bond and money markets**, and the specific risk rating results are subject to the rating results provided by **managers and sales agencies. This is an index, and investors investing in this index face potential risks such as tracking error control not reaching the agreed target, index compilation institutions stopping services, and suspension of trading of constituent bonds, the risk of deviation between the return of the underlying index and the average return of the market, the risk of fluctuation of the underlying index, the risk of deviation between the return of the portfolio and the return of the underlying index, the risk of change of the underlying index, the risk of discount premium in the secondary market trading of **shares, and the risk of error in the subscription and redemption list. Refer to the risk of IOPV decision-making and IOPV calculation error, delisting risk, the risk of failure of investors' subscription and redemption, the risk of realizing the redemption consideration of ** shares, the risk of derivatives investment, etc. 2. STAR 50 ETF: This ** asset invested in the Science and Technology Innovation Board will face the unique risks brought about by the differences in investment targets, market systems and trading rules under the mechanism of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, including but not limited to the risk of large fluctuations, liquidity risk, delisting risk and so on. 3. The manager manages and uses the property in accordance with the principles of due diligence, honesty and trustworthiness, prudence and diligence, but does not guarantee that the property will be profitable, nor does it guarantee the minimum return. **Unlike financial instruments such as bank savings and bonds, which can provide fixed income expectations, and different types of financial instruments have different risk-return profiles. Investors who buy ** may not only share the income generated by ** investment according to their holdings, but also may bear the losses caused by ** investment. Past performance is not indicative of future performance, and performance of other performance managed by the Manager does not constitute a guarantee of performance in relation to this document. **The Administrator's suitability matching opinion does not indicate that it has made a substantive judgment or guarantee of the risks and benefits of the product or service. Before investing in the relevant products of this article, investors should carefully read the "** Contract", "Prospectus" and other legal documents of the relevant products in this article, fully understand the risk-return characteristics and product characteristics of the relevant products in this article, fully consider their own risk tolerance, rationally judge the market on the basis of understanding the product or service situation and listening to the suitability opinions, make investment decisions prudently according to their own investment objectives, period, investment experience, asset status and other factors, and independently bear the investment risk. The products related to this article are issued and managed by Huaxia **Management***. China's first operation time is relatively short, and it cannot reflect all stages of development. 4. This information is not used as any legal document, and all the information or opinions expressed in the information do not constitute the final operation advice of investment, law, accounting or taxation, and our company does not make any guarantee for the final operation proposal for the content of the information. Under no circumstances shall the Company be liable to any person for any loss arising from the use of any content in this material. China's first operation time is relatively short, and it cannot reflect all stages of development. The market is risky, and investors need to be cautious.