On December 27, 2023, Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar (left) visited Russia and met with Minister Sergei Lavrov (right). Source: Reuters.
Straight News: Mr. Liu, what are your observations on Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar's visit to Russia?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Actually, to evaluate the current Russia-India relations, especially after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, we must zoom in on our vision. I think that after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, by observing their attitudes towards Ukraine and Russia, we can roughly divide the countries of the world into three categories - the first category is the countries that follow the United States and firmly support Ukraine and even provide Ukraine with **. The common denominator of such countries is that they are allies or quasi-allies of the United States, and share the same ideology, values, and political system as the United States. There are about 50 such countries around the world. The second group is the countries that firmly support Russia and even provide Russia with ** and ammunition, which are several countries represented by Iran and North Korea. The common characteristic of these countries is that they are all quite anti-American because they have been blocked and sanctioned by the United States for a long time. The third group is countries that take a neutral stance and refuse to choose sides between Russia and Ukraine, or even maintain relatively friendly relations with both sides. They are represented by countries such as Turkey, India, Saudi Arabia, etc. What they have in common is that they pursue all diplomacy that is oriented towards their own national gains, strives to maximize their own national benefits, and de-ideologizes. The benefit of the first of these three categories is that they can integrate into the political, security, and economic system dominated by the United States. The second group of countries can benefit from Russia in terms of military technology and cheap agricultural products. The best mixed are the third group of countries, which are both co-opted by Russia and bought by the United States, and can be said to be like a fish in water in both sides in obtaining national interests. India is a prime example of this. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has used the Russia-Ukraine war as a lever to power Russia and the West right and left.
Straight News: What do you think of the results of Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar's visit to Russia?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Obviously, in order to win over India, Russia has poured out its heart and lungs this time, and has put in front of India all the good things that India wants and what Russia can come up with. Politically and diplomatically, it not only took the initiative to invite Modi to visit Russia, but also explicitly promised that Russia would support India's "normalization".Economically, it is ready to launch a North-South international transport corridor between India and Russia;Militarily, it promised to cooperate with India in the production of Russian-made products in India. And I don't know if you have noticed that Russia's benefits to India this time are based on the gift package that Biden gave to India during his visit to India not long ago, and the signs of parting ways between Russia and the United States are very strong. It is precisely because the United States invited India to join the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" and invited India to attend the G7 and NATO summits that Russia pledged to support India's "normalization".It is precisely because the United States and India have signed a five-year military-industrial cooperation plan to jointly produce offensive **, including missiles, that Russia has concocted the same method;It is precisely because the United States is taking the lead in building the "Indo-European Economic Corridor" with India. Russia has only proposed to build a north-south international transport corridor between India and Russia. In other words, what the United States promised to India, I, Russia, can also give, and we will give more. It can be expected that in order to compete with Russia in winning over India, the United States will definitely offer India a higher price in the future, and India will become a sweet spot for the United States and Russia to compete for. In the past, when India applied for "normalization," Russia often nodded in agreement with the United States in vetoing it, and the United States nodded in agreement with Russia's veto, and this time neither the United States nor Russia, nor even Britain and France, should dare not veto. India's "normal" competitors, Japan and Germany, will certainly not be able to pass the Russian hurdleEconomically, India can not only continue to buy cheap Russian oil while joining the ** chain dominated by the United States, but more importantly, India can also promote the internationalization of the rupee by using the rupee to settle oil ** with RussiaIn the past, India basically had only Russia to choose between the purchase and production of military equipment, but now it can take it all between the United States and Russia.
Straight news: Russia"tsargrad.tv"According to the news network, although the United States and its allies want India to alienate Russia. However, in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russian-Indian relations have not been cold, but have become more stable. What do you think about this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I have reservations about such a judgment. Before the Russia-Ukraine war, India pursued a diplomatic strategy of balancing diplomacy between the United States and Russia, and its focus was indeed biased towards Russia, and after the Russian-Ukrainian war, although India was still playing a balanced diplomatic strategy between the United States and Russia, its center of gravity has been biased towards the West led by the United States. Because India at that time was inclined to believe that Ukraine, supported by the United States and Europe, could eventually defeat Russia. A typical manifestation of this is that not only is the relationship between the United States and India hot, but India has also joined the "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue" mechanism of the United States, Japan, India and Australia, integrated into the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework" led by the United States, and also attended the NATO summit and the G7 summit. On the contrary, in order to politely refuse Russia's ** Putin to attend the SCO summit in India, India also changed the summit that should have been held online to the ** summit, and even the G20 summit held in India, Putin was not able to attend. Therefore, I think that for the subtle changes in Russian-Indian relations after the Russian-Ukrainian war, Russia is "self-aware of drinking cold water in the winter". So under such circumstances, why do both the official and non-governmental parties in Russia still boast that Russian-Indian relations have become stronger than before?In my opinion, the reason behind this is that the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war has put Russia in an unprecedented diplomatic predicament, not only does it have no hope of thawing its relations with the Western bloc in the short to medium term, but also faces obstacles in carrying out head-of-state diplomacy with the 123 member states of the ICC due to the existence of the so-called wanted warrant of the International Criminal Court. In this case, doing its best to establish good relations with India has actually become a helpless choice for Russia, which is also one of Russia's means of diplomatic breakthrough, not to mention that India is also a member of the BRICS and the SCO. In addition, I would also like to remind Russia that almost two years after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, a very important reason why Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar belatedly visited Russia is that Russia is currently showing signs of "holding on" on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield. If one day Russia is unable to withstand the battlefield, India's position and attitude will change.
Author丨Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".
Editor丨Wang Zhijing, editor-in-chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News.