BEIJING, Dec. 25 (Xinhua) -- Will the United States take action against Yemen's Houthi rebels?
Xinhua News Agency reporter.
The United States recently announced the formation of a Red Sea escort alliance to deal with Yemen's Houthi attacks on international merchant ships in the waters, and has repeatedly expressed its consideration of launching strikes against the Houthis. The Houthis, for their part, have repeatedly attacked ships "linked to Israel" in the Red Sea, saying that if attacked, they will retaliate.
Analysts pointed out that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict drags on, the risk of spillover is emerging, and tensions in the waters of the Red Sea are worrying. However, on the question of whether to take action against the Houthis, the United States itself has many concerns, and its allies have their own considerations, and military intervention is likely to be mainly "defensive".
Form a coalition. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced in Bahrain on the 19th that he would form an alliance and carry out an escort operation codenamed "Prosperity Guardian" to deal with the frequent attacks by Yemeni Houthi rebels on merchant ships in the Red Sea waters. Members of the alliance include the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands and other countries. US Department of Defense spokesman Patrick Ryder said on the 21st that as of that day, more than 20 countries had agreed to join.
According to another report, the USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier battle group has been transferred from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Aden, near the Yemeni coast where the Houthis are active.
Since the outbreak of the new Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Yemen's Houthi rebels have repeatedly attacked targets in Red Sea waters using missiles and drones. The Houthis said that all ships owned or operated by Israeli companies or flying the Israeli flag would be targeted by the group. The United States has repeatedly stated recently that it does not rule out the possibility of military action against the Houthis.
Saudi Arabian political analyst Abdullah Faraj believes that the United States is preparing to fight the Houthis, on the one hand, to show support for Israel, and on the other hand, to protect the security of the merchant ships of the United States and its allies.
The Red Sea Route is one of the most important shipping routes in the world. Due to the attack by the Houthis, many oil tankers and natural gas carriers of European oil companies have chosen to take a detour, and international oil prices and natural gas have **. Analysts pointed out that if the crisis in the Red Sea and its surrounding waters expands and escalates, the international chain will be impacted, resulting in global commodities
In response to the move of the United States to form a coalition, Yemen's Houthis issued a statement on the 19th, saying that the multinational force led by the United States could not prevent the group from launching attacks on "Israeli ships" passing through the Red Sea.
Reluctantly. The U.S. "Politico" quoted the United States as saying that most of the countries involved in the operation were unwilling to disclose the fact of their participation. Some analysts believe that this shows that the action is "sensitive" against the backdrop of heightened regional tensions in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
On the 21st, the U.S. "Foreign Policy" magazine quoted Chad Bronzer, the head of the geopolitical department of the British Energy Sight Consulting Company, as saying that the details of the composition of the escort alliance and the action plan are vague and continue to cause confusion to the outside world. This shows that the formation of the alliance is a very difficult issue, and many countries are reluctant to get involved in a high-profile manner and do not want to publicly stand with the United States on this issue.
According to the German news agency dpa, EU countries are considering sending out sea ships equipped with defense systems to escort merchant ships, but military strikes against the Houthis are not on the list.
Among the Arab countries, only Bahrain is currently openly declaring its participation in the actions of the American coalition. Analysts believe that because the Houthis use the slogan "support the Palestinian people", Arab countries are generally worried that the fight against the Houthis may lead to discontent among their own populations. "This is an extremely uncomfortable and embarrassing time for most Arab countries, which do not want to be seen as supporting Israel's destruction of the Gaza Strip or supporting Israel's brutal tactics," said Sanam Wakhil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the Royal Institute of International Studies. ”
Reuters reported that the United States has been reluctant to say that Saudi Arabia and the UAE will not participate in this maritime operation. Sources in the Gulf region said Saudi Arabia and the UAE were absent because they did not want tensions with Iran to escalate or jeopardize the Yemeni peace process by joining maritime operations.
Egypt has also not publicly joined the U.S.-led multinational escort force. Salam Asbashi, a former senior general of Yemen's ** army, pointed out that Egypt does not want the escort operation to turn into a direct conflict with the Houthis and turn the southern end of the Red Sea into a war zone, which will cause greater losses to Red Sea shipping.
There are many concerns. Analysts point out that the U.S. military faces many uncertainties in its fight against the Houthis. The two sides are engaged in an asymmetrical war, and the US military pays a high cost but does not necessarily achieve the desired resultsAt the same time, the Houthis may increase their attacks on the Red Sea route in retaliation, further affecting the global ** chain. These consequences are factors that the United States has to consider. Therefore, whether to launch a strike on the Houthis is by no means an easy decision for the United States.
The U.S. "New York Times" quoted Lundkin, the U.S. special representative for Yemen affairs, as saying on the 23rd that the United States is worried that the attack on the Houthis in Yemen will escalate the situation, and even involve more countries in the conflict, leading to a wider war in the region.
In addition, on the issue of spending, the US newspaper Politico** quoted the Pentagon as saying that the cost of shooting down Houthi drones and missiles is increasingly worrying, and intercepting a $2,000 drone requires at least one anti-aircraft missile worth about $2 million.
The article in the Russian newspaper "Viewpoint" believes that the United States is unlikely to risk launching a ground operation against the Houthis. The article quotes the Arab expert and political scientist Leonid Isaev as saying: "To stop the Houthis, the Americans, the Saudis and their allies must carry out a truly joint operation." But in the context of the Ukraine crisis and the Gaza crisis, such actions are unimaginable and do not necessarily lead to good results. (Participating reporters: Deng Xianlai, Wang Zhuolun, Hu Guan, Wang Shang, Li Rui).