1. Hot information
[International News].
1. The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 525%-5.The 50% range was unchanged, in line with expectations. The median expected GDP growth rate from 2024 to the end of 2026 is respectively. 9%。(Expected for September.) 8%）。The updated estimate shows a 75 basis point rate cut in 2024, and the median estimate shows that the Federal** rate will end 2024 at 46%, and the current policy rate level is 54%。
2. Australia's medium-term fiscal outlook: GDP growth is expected to be 175%, 2024 2025 growth of 225% in 2025 and 2 in 20265%。Iron ore is expected to fall to US$60 per tonne, metallurgical coal at US$140 per tonne and thermal coal at US$70 per tonne.
3. United States: In November, PPI increased by 09%, estimated 10%, the previous value was 13%；Month-on-month, it is estimated to be 00%, the previous value decreased by 05%。
4. OPEC released a monthly report saying that the global demand growth rate will be 2.5 million barrels per day in 2023 and 2.2 million barrels per day in 2024.
5. At the China-Saudi Arabia Investment Conference held on December 12, the two companies signed more than 60 memorandums and agreements with a cumulative contract value of US$25 billion, covering various fields such as e-sports, energy, agriculture, tourism, mining and finance.
[Domestic news].
1. The increase in the scale of social financing in China in November was 245 trillion yuan, 455.6 billion yuan more than the same period last year. New RMB loans in November109 trillion yuan, and the medium and long-term loans of households increased by 233.1 billion yuan. The balance of M2 at the end of November was 2912 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%.
2. The National Bureau of Statistics announced the CPI of 31 provinces in November 2023, and the CPI of 26 provinces decreased year-on-year. Among them, prices in three provinces, including Guizhou, Henan and Shanxi, have fallen for eight consecutive months.
3. The meeting emphasized that we should continue to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas. It is necessary to coordinate and resolve risks in real estate, local debts, and small and medium-sized financial institutions, severely crack down on illegal financial activities, resolutely adhere to the bottom line of no systemic risks, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
On the 13th, the Asian Development Bank raised its economic ** for the developing economies of the Asia-Pacific region, which is expected to grow by 4 percent this year9%, to maintain next year's 48% growth** unchanged. China's economy will grow by 5 this year2% compared to 49%。
On the 13th, the assistant minister of the Ministry of Commerce said that since the beginning of this year, China's foreign trade has achieved new results in stabilizing the scale and optimizing the structure. Since October, the monthly growth rate of imports and exports has turned positive, and in October and November, it has achieved from "four consecutive declines" to "two consecutive rises", and the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for foreign trade, and it is expected that the whole year is expected to achieve positive growth.
6. Members of the Party Leadership Group and Deputy Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said that in the next stage, it is necessary to actively revitalize the financial resources that are occupied by inefficiency and improve the efficiency of capital use. Every year, 80% of all loans in China need to be re-invested. By improving the efficiency of allocation, the effective revitalization of these stocks and the new annual increment can effectively support economic growth.
Second, the industry dynamics
1. Guangfu announced that from the settlement on December 13, 2023, the price limit of lithium carbonate ** contract will be adjusted to 13%, and the trading margin standard will be adjusted to 14%.On the same day, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange also announced that the lithium carbonate market has fluctuated greatly recently, and the exchange will seriously investigate and deal with abnormal trading behaviors and illegal trading behaviors.
2. China Iron and Steel Association: In early December 2023, the daily output of crude steel of iron and steel enterprises will be 193160,000 tons, down 419%, a decrease of 2 compared with the same period last year77%；Steel inventory 1410600,000 tons, an increase of 8 over the previous decade82%, down 397%。
3. **Issued the reply to the "Overall Development Plan for the Guangdong-Macao In-Depth Cooperation Zone in Hengqin". Innovate and improve policies and measures to promote the integrated development of Hengqin and Macao, enrich and expand the connotation of cooperation, promote the in-depth cooperation between Guangdong and Macao with more effective opening measures, and vigorously develop new industries that promote the moderate diversification of Macao's economy.
On the 12th, Liaocheng City released the "Promotion of Deepening the Conversion of Old and New Kinetic Energy to Promote Green, Low-Carbon and High-Quality Development from January to November", which shows that the elimination of inefficient and backward production capacity will be accelerated. Draft a work plan for promoting the withdrawal of backward production capacity in accordance with laws and regulations in 2023. According to the feedback from the second round of ** ecological and environmental protection inspectors (serial number 8), Liaocheng steel production capacity was completely withdrawn.
3. Overhaul and steel mill information
After research, it was decided that the domestic sales of steel pipe and bar steel products of Baosteel Co., Ltd. will be adjusted in January 2024 on the basis of December 2023 as follows (unless otherwise specified, the following are excluding tax):
1. Seamless steel pipe.
1. OCTG: the base price remains unchanged.
2. High-pressure boiler tubes:
1) 140: the base price increased by 100 yuan ton.
2) Precision: the base price was raised by 100 yuan tons.
3) Lu Bao: The base price was raised by 100 yuan tons.
3. Mechanical structure pipe:
1) 140: the base price increased by 100 yuan ton.
2) Precision: the base price was raised by 100 yuan tons.
3) Lu Bao: The base price was raised by 100 yuan tons.
2. Welded pipe. 1. HFW: The base price was raised by 100 yuan tons.
3. Wire. 1. Baoshan wire rod: the base price was raised by 100 yuan tons.
2. Baote structural steel wire rod: the base price is raised by 100 yuan tons.
3. Tsingshan industrial wire rod: the base price was raised by 100 yuan tons.
Fourth, bars and square steel.
1. Baoshan primary rolled bar and square steel: the base price is increased by 100 yuan tons.
2. Baote bar: the base price is increased by 100 yuan tons.
5. For details of the alloy markup adjustment, please refer to the ** table in January 2024.
6. The above ** adjustments shall take effect from the date of promulgation.
7. The right to interpret this adjustment notice belongs to the Marketing Center of Baoshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. (Baosteel International).
Fourth, downstream information
On the 13th, Dong Jianguo, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that he would support real estate companies with a tight capital chain to solve the problem of short-term cash flow constraints, promote their normal operations, and resolutely prevent the risk of debt default from exploding.
2. Ningde City, Fujian Province: The maximum loan amount for single-worker families who pay into the housing provident fund has been increased to 450,000 yuan, and the number of second and third children has been increased to 550,000 yuanThe maximum loan amount for dual-income families who contribute to the housing provident fund has been increased to 800,000 yuan, and the maximum loan amount for those who have two or three children has been increased to 1 million yuan.
3. The Xi'an Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the "Implementation Rules for the Supervision and Administration of Pre-sale Funds of Commercial Housing in Xi'an". It is mentioned that the key supervision funds can only be used to pay for construction progress and equipment and materials, excluding survey, design, supervision and other expenses. Key regulatory funds are strictly prohibited from being used to repay the principal and interest of project development loans.
5. Market transactions
[Lecong steel world weighbridge import and export index].
On December 13, 2023, the Steel World Weighbridge Shipment Index recorded 114 points, down 4 points, or 3%, from the previous trading day, and down 13 points, or 10., from the same period last week2%；The steel world weighbridge purchase index recorded 133 points, up 29 points from the previous trading day, an increase of 279%, up 34 points from the same period last week, an increase of 343%。Yesterday, the weighbridge purchase index continued to rise, the spot ** ran smoothly, the market transaction slowed down, and the trading atmosphere was good.
On the one hand, the pressure on supply and demand in the steel market has increased, and the inventory in the off-season is expected to accumulate. On the other hand, high costs are still supported, and at the same time, the overall macro environment is more neutral, the Fed has ended the interest rate hike cycle, and China's macro policy space is still sufficient. In the short term, steel prices may show a narrow range of ** adjustment. (The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice).