Wang Yongli Wen
Time flies, and I don't know that 2023 is about to pass, and 2024 is coming.
Looking back on 2023, at the beginning of the year, major institutions and researchers at home and abroad are generally pessimistic about the trend of the world economy, especially believing that the economic growth rate of developed economies will be substantial, the U.S. economy will have a large negative growth, and China has lifted the epidemic control, consumption will have retaliatory growth, the economic growth rate will be great, and the housing market will pick up significantly. However, the reality is that there is a significant deviation between expectations and reality. In 2023, the performance of advanced economies was generally stronger than expected, but the downward pressure on China's economic growth exceeded expectations, and the world economy was generally a relatively stable year. The emergence of such results shows that everyone's understanding of the profound changes in the international situation and the deep-seated contradictions in major countries is obviously insufficient, and it is indeed necessary to reflect on it deeply.
In fact, after the extensive and profound impact of the new crown epidemic on the world, the world pattern has undergone far more profound changes than expected. Despite the overall stability of the world situation in 2023, the model of advanced economies relying more on large-scale expansion** debt and money supply to support economic growth has reached a dangerous edge, and the possibility of the United States falling into stagflation and starting to cut interest rates in 2024 has increased significantly (Note: The monthly year-on-year growth rate of the US CPI in 2023 has decreased significantly, and has been maintained at the beginning of June at the beginning of "3", and in November it was 3.).1%。However, due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI fluctuates greatly after 2020, so it is not reasonable to look at the monthly year-on-year growth rate alone, and it is necessary to observe the cumulative number of year-on-year growth for at least three consecutive years. Judging from the cumulative number of year-on-year increases for three consecutive years, the US CPI in 2023 has remained above 17% since April, and the highest in May was 176% and 17 by November0%, reflecting that the actual level of the United States is far higher than before the epidemic and remains high. High inflation, high interest rates, and high costs will bring severe tests to the operation of the U.S. economy and society). At the same time, multiple factors have also caused deep-seated contradictions within major countries to burst out, major power games and regional conflicts have become more intense, the world pattern and international order have been more impacted, the global economy and downward pressure have been further enhanced, world peace and stability have become more fragile, and the most dangerous situation since the end of the Cold War has been ushered in. In addition, there are still great uncertainties about climate change, the spread of the epidemic, and artificial intelligence. This has brought great challenges to the major countries in the world, especially the United States and China, in their grasp of the international and domestic situation and their macroeconomic policy orientationHow to grasp and control the complex and ever-changing severe situation at home and abroad will have a profound impact on the future of China and the United States and the world, and 2024 will become an extremely critical year for the development of the world.
In the face of many difficult and domestic challenges at home and abroad, it is not easy for China's economy to achieve a year-on-year growth of more than 5% in 2023, and it is still the largest engine of global economic growth (contributing about 30%), which shows that China has the strong strength and development resilience to resist major international and domestic shocks, and face the great changes in the world in a centuryChina still has more opportunities than challenges, and still has great potential for development。However, despite the continuous increase in stimulus in 2023, China's economic growth and social employment are still lower than social expectations, and the performance of consumption, exports, investment, and **, housing market and local ** debt is not satisfactory, and the risks and challenges are still quite prominent, which also showsThe deep-seated contradictions and international challenges that China is currently facing are more complex and severe, and it is difficult to rely solely on fiscal and monetary policy stimulus to play a significant role, making it more difficult to maintain sustainability, and even triggering new risks and accumulating bigger problemsOnly by comprehensively deepening reform and opening up can we solve the fundamental problem。It should be noted that 2023 has also fully exposed difficulties and problems, and the international situation and major challenges have become clearer, providing important basic conditions for China's macro decision-making.
In 2024, China will adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, and establishing first and then breaking down, and strengthen the overall coordination of macroeconomic policies, including including incorporating non-economic policies into the assessment of macroeconomic policy orientation consistency, so as to ensure that efforts are made in the same direction and form synergies, enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, strengthen macroeconomic regulation and control, and alleviate the risk of outstanding contradictions. At the same time, tooThere is an urgent need to comprehensively promote reform and opening up at a deeper and higher level。Among them, it is particularly important that we must devote ourselves to the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity, earnestly deepen the reform of the administrative management system and institutional opening-up, scientifically define the boundaries of responsibilities, the relationship between all levels and the setting of party and government institutions, strengthen the seriousness of budget management, and strive to ensure the compliance of public power, greatly reduce the scope and scale of expenditure, maximize the decentralization of power and profit and stimulate social vitality, give full play to the foundation and leading role of the market (including the financial transaction market), and adhere to marketization, rule of law, International development, effectively enhance the atmosphere and awareness of the whole society to respect the law, seek truth from facts, fairness and justice, make full use of the two major international and domestic markets and resources, promote the efficient operation of international and domestic dual circulation, and ensure the high-quality development of China's economy at a higher rate than that of developed economies.
It is believed and sincerely hoped that 2024 will become a landmark year for China's new round of major reform and opening up, and at the time of ushering in China's most distinctive and special "Dragon" year, we will promote China's economic and social transformation and upgrading, maintain high-quality and rapid development, and achieve new breakthroughs and new leaps.
The year 2024 is crucial for China to deepen reform and opening up and realize the dream of becoming a strong country