The main reason for the continuation of Shanghai Gold this week is the continued rise in interest rate cut expectations. Although Powell's speech on Friday evening emphasized the possibility of further interest rate hikes in the future, he did not say much about the easing of financial conditions caused by the recent ** and *** US Treasury yields, which made the market interpret it as ** remarks. In addition, the market's expectation of the earliest month of interest rate cuts next year has also been further advanced to March, which has allowed ** to continue to surge higher and hit a record high. But everyone needs to pay attention to the new high to the new high, and did not stand firm, there is a saying that in order to better **, I want to rise first, so short friends can continue to hold, a good position to hold firm, and then there is the initiative.
Recent U.S. economic data and inflation have cooled to some extent, and the market has increased bets on an early rate cut after Fed Governor Waller mentioned interest rate cuts last week. However, Powell's reiteration on Friday that he would maintain tightening until inflation returns to 2% did not shake market expectations. The Fed's speech generally believes that it is too early to talk about a rate cut, and the market has widened the divergence with the Fed and priced in too many rate cut expectations. The resilience of the U.S. economy remains, inflationary pressures remain, and there is a lack of strong support from reality to continue to rise in line with expectations at this point in time. Therefore, I tell you that the current market is too optimistic about the expectation of interest rate cuts, especially for those who are chasing more, if this is a historical high, if you don't stop loss, this set is not good to come back for three years and five years.
The basic assumption of the market is that the Fed's interest rate hike has come to an end, and the real yield of U.S. bonds will continue to rise sharply, and the room for upward movement is limited. We believe that *** is likely to get out of the oscillation range since the second half of the year, so while short-term expectations still need to be repaired, *** may continue, but the space is relatively limited. In the short term, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data will be released within the week, which may affect market policy expectations, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to it.
Speaking of the RMB exchange rate, the current international volatility has become smaller, and the RMB has reached a pressure level, so everyone should pay attention to who Shanghai Gold is, so there is no problem at all with the high-altitude one. Let's say that the interest rate cut is expected to open later, the data is very good, and this kind of position is not for us to enter more, at least we have to find a support level and then go in, now where is the support?Therefore, the current structure is empty, so emptiness is the main theme.
Well, let's take a look at the technical side of Shanghai Gold, what else does this position say, there is no support, you can only continue to get support downward, so now the bulls are weaker than the bears, so what should you do and do you need to say, as long as you can't stand 475 short single to hold it steady, ** or biased, at present you are not high empty down Don't rush into the market, because *** no good position is easy to wash you out, so the market is not in a good position or wait for a good position, the current pressure above the level at 4746, so you can pay attention, if the following 469 is not tested, go to test the above 474 first6 and 477, then everyone really has nothing to be afraid of, just bring a stop loss short. ** is a wave pushing a wave, we just need to find the peak or low of that wave and then bring a stop loss to do it. Hujin didn't have much to say. over