Under the influence of factors such as the continuous decline of the global semiconductor market, the US dollar interest rate hike, and decoupling, China's chip industry cannot stay out of the situation and is experiencing an unprecedented challenge. According to the exclusive data of the Enterprise Investigation Office and the Titanium Investigation Department, so far in 2023, there have been 1090,000 chip-related enterprises cancelled or revoked industrial and commercial information, a year-on-year increase of 698%, far exceeding the previous level. At the same time, the number of newly registered businesses was 6570,000, a year-on-year increase of 95%。
The global semiconductor market size is expected to reach $520 billion in 2023, down 9% year-on-year4%, indicating that the industry is still in a downward cycle. TSMC, as a leading wafer foundry, also reflects this trend. In November this year, TSMC's consolidated revenue fell by 15% month-on-month3%, down 75%。Although TSMC President Wei Zhejia said that 2024 will be a year full of opportunities, uncertainties still exist considering inflation, costs** and other factors.
In the domestic market, the situation is equally dire. According to data from Oriental Wealth Choice, as of November 1, 111 of the 151 listed semiconductor companies had a year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to the parent company, accounting for about 74% of the total. Taking AI chip design company Cambrian as an example, its third-quarter financial report shows that operating income and net profit fell by 66% year-on-year, respectively15% and 5484%。
In the secondary market, the "involution" phenomenon of the chip industry has intensified. According to statistics, about 55% of China's chip design companies have sales revenue of less than 10 million yuan, reflecting the fierce competition and small scale of the industry. Wei Shaojun, a professor at Tsinghua University and chairman of the Integrated Circuit Design Branch of the China Semiconductor Industry Association, pointed out that most Chinese chip design companies will suffer large-scale losses in 2023, with serious inventory backlogs, saturation, and impairment risks.
However, in the midst of adversity, there are also opportunities. U.S. restrictions on high-end chip exports provide an opportunity for Chinese chip designers to fill the gaps in the market, and although there are many challenges, they also prompt companies to improve their ability to control the market and demand, avoid blindly following the trend, and reduce risks. At the same time, domestic substitution does not mean a low level, but a high level of requirements.
In the field of semiconductor testing equipment, the market share of Chinese companies is still low, only about 3%, while imported equipment dominates. However, the recent release of domestic chips for Huawei Mate 60 series mobile phones, Loongson 3A6000 general-purpose processors, and Changxin Storage's LPDDR5 memory chips demonstrates the progress of China's chip industry and the support of the local ** chain.
For the future, the chip industry is pinning its hopes on recovery in 2024. Gartner**, global semiconductor industry sales to grow by 168% to $624 billion, of which the memory chip industry is expected to grow by 663%。IDC predicts that the global semiconductor sales market will grow by as much as 20% in 2024. Yang Yuanqing, chairman and CEO of Lenovo Group, also believes that the recovery signs of the technology industry are obvious, and the PC industry is expected to return to single-digit growth in 2024.
Hu Weiwu, chairman of Loongson Zhongke, predicts that by 2027, the "bottleneck" problem of China's chip industry chain will be basically solved. This indicates that China's chip industry is expected to achieve independence and controllability and accelerate technological innovation and industrial upgrading after experiencing labor pains.
In general, China's chip industry is facing unprecedented challenges and opportunities. Under this great change unseen in a century, enterprises need to continuously improve their own strength, seize market opportunities, overcome difficulties, and realize the transformation from "small and scattered" to "strong and refined". Although the current situation is grim, we have reason to believe that through unremitting efforts and innovation, China's chip industry will rise in adversity and usher in a brighter future.
So what do you think about this?Welcome everyone to pay attention and leave a message in the comment area to discuss!Let us work together to develop China's chip industry and witness the growth and transformation of this important field in challenges and opportunities.