For inbound travel, international flights are an important part. Since the beginning of this year, China's international scheduled passenger flights have resumed in an orderly manner. Data shows that international passenger flights have stabilized at more than 50% of pre-pandemic levels since late August, and during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the number of flights per week increased to 56% of pre-pandemic levels.
In terms of flight passenger traffic, in the third quarter of this year, international passenger traffic was 102410,000 people, recovering to 52% of the same period in 2019;Domestic passenger traffic reached 1700 million person-times, an increase of 8 over the same period in 20199%。Domestic flights are resuming much faster than international flights.
Multiple factors restrict the resumption of flights.
On September 30, travel enthusiast Dong Zhe departed from Beijing Daxing International Airport for a trip to Japan and returned to Beijing on October 7. "At present, there are fewer flights between Beijing and Japan, and I hope that there will be more international routes. At the same time, it was early in the morning when I landed at Daxing Airport, and it was inconvenient to go home. Talking about the international flight trip, Dong Zhe expressed his expectations and suggestions to reporters.
Qi Qi, deputy dean of the School of Civil Aviation Management of Guangzhou Civil Aviation Vocational and Technical College, believes that there are three main reasons for the slow recovery of international flights:
From the perspective of capacity guarantee supply, the recovery of international flight operation organization and airport support capacity cannot be completed in the short term. During the epidemic, airlines around the world adjusted their operations, and many foreign airlines transferred the aircraft capacity of flights originally operated to China to other markets, and some foreign airport employees left, and there was a shortage of airport support personnel. Foreign airlines in China have significantly reduced their staff, and it will take time to rehire and train personnel. In addition, although domestic airlines are highly motivated to resume routes and increase flights, and have sufficient capacity, airlines in overseas destination countries or regions have different willingness to resume due to demand and cost considerations, which affects the resumption process of international flights.
From the perspective of international market demand, overseas tourists are one of the main passenger flows of international flights, while the recovery of foreign tourism markets is lagging behind. Not only is the security resources insufficient, but also the foreign local reception in the second and third quarters of outbound tourism is 40% to 50%, which further inhibits the demand of the tourism market. Although the recently released third batch of outbound group travel policies is conducive to the resumption of international flights, it will take several months for the tourism industry to be organized.
The lack of visa manpower, the extension of visa time, and the low efficiency of visas for foreign institutions in China have also affected the potential travel demand of the international air transport market to a certain extent.
At present, there are many uncertainties in the international situation, and it will take time for international flights to resume due to factors such as travel visas and the restoration of service capacity of the tourism industry. In 2019, the average number of direct passenger flights per week on China-US passenger routes was about 340, but by the end of October this year, there were only more than 40 flights per week on China-US passenger routes, and the flight supply was less than 14% of that in 2019. At the same time, the level of flight recovery is higher than the level of passenger traffic recovery, and the load factor of international routes is still low. In the first three quarters of this year, the average load factor of international routes of Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines was 745%, down from the 2019 average of 83%. In addition, the lack of overseas core resource support capacity, some traditional hot markets, such as the United States, have not yet recovered to the pre-epidemic level, hot markets such as the Netherlands and Canada are always short of resources, and ground support resources such as Tokyo and Seoul are tight, making it difficult for international flights to resume. Zhan Fen, an associate researcher at the China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology, said.
Encrypted flights require multi-party collaboration.
The civil aviation industry has the characteristics of a long industrial chain and wide coverage, involving many departments and enterprises such as management, airlines, and airports. Speeding up the resumption of international flights requires all parties to play their full role.
Liang Nan, director of the Transportation Department of the Civil Aviation Administration of China, said that since the beginning of this year, since the implementation of the "Category B and B Management" of new coronavirus infection in China, the Civil Aviation Administration of China has formulated a series of work measures to support airlines to implement the arranged flight plans and promote the resumption of international passenger flights. The first is to establish a special working group to promote the resolution of difficulties and problems in the work of increasing international shiftsThe second is to organize airlines to carry out mobilization and deployment and demand mapping, guide and support airlines to increase capacity investment in international routes, and improve operational efficiencyThe third is to improve the efficiency of the allocation of passenger traffic rights and time resources, increase the monitoring of the use of air traffic rights and time hours, and clean up the fictitious resources in a timely manner and on demand.
Airlines, airports and other civil aviation units are also working hard to promote the resumption of international flights. For example, airlines have resumed and added a number of new international routes. Since October, China Eastern Airlines has added four new international routes: Shanghai-Busan, Shanghai-Nagoya, Kunming-Kathmandu, and Shanghai-Brisbane. From December 11, a new direct flight between Shanghai and Cairo will be opened, which is the first time that a Chinese airline has opened a route from Shanghai to North Africa.
Shi Mengmeng, director of aviation development of the aviation business department of the capital airport, said that the international destinations of the capital airport have covered 47 countries on five continents, with more than 35 intercontinental routes, including more than 4 daily arrivals and departures in Frankfurt, London, Paris and other cities in Europe, and more than 10 daily arrivals and departures in Seoul, Tokyo and other cities in Asia. After the change of the 2023 winter season, the capital airport plans to open two new international destinations in San Francisco and Baku, and increase the frequency of Frankfurt, London, Paris, Munich, Madrid, Dubai, Sydney, Auckland and other international destinations.
It is expected that both supply and demand will exert force.
At the end of September this year, the General Office of ** issued the "Several Measures on Unleashing the Potential of Tourism Consumption and Promoting the High-quality Development of the Tourism Industry", proposing to resume and increase international flights, encrypt the frequency of flights, and improve the convenience of air travel.
In the short to medium term, the international passenger market continues to face both supply and demand pressures. However, with the implementation of various favorable policies, the international passenger transport market will continue to improve. Qiqi said.
Pan Yixin, executive vice president of the China Air Transport Association, said that driven by factors such as the stabilization of the national economy, the growth of business travel demand, the further recovery of international routes, and the upgrading of the airport economy and industry, the development of the industry will form a new endogenous driving force.
Experts said that the recovery of the international aviation market requires the coordinated efforts of the supply side and the demand side. Zhan Fen believes that on the supply side, the key is to optimize the matching of capacity and the market, increase the supply of key resources such as traffic rights and schedules, increase external coordination, and provide more support for airlines to resume routesOn the demand side, it is necessary to strengthen cross-departmental collaboration to jointly promote market recovery.
China's airlines should also consolidate Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and other peripheral markets, as well as the traditional markets of Europe and the United States, and pay full attention to the emerging aviation market. Zhan Fen suggested that the recovery to the joint construction of international routes in the "Belt and Road" countries should be accelerated, and new markets should be cultivated through business cooperation and other means. At the same time, we will strengthen cooperation with RCEP member countries to build an international transport corridor system that supports the development of industries in the RCEP region.
Li Xiaojin, director of the Institute of Aviation Economics of the Civil Aviation University of China, believes that with the resumption of international flights, it is especially necessary to strengthen the safety management of personnel, facilities and equipment related to international flights, strengthen flight safety supervision, and ensure the safe operation of international flights. (Economic ** reporter Cui Guoqiang).