U.S. TreasuriesThe total has reached 33$8 trillion, and that's just the beginning. In the next 12 months, there will be 8 trillion dollarsDebtReplacement is required at expiration. At the same time,U.S. Federal**ExpectedFiscal deficitsIt will reach around $2 trillion. In other words, the U.S. needs to raise $10 trillion to borrow new debt, pay off old debt, and fill itFiscal deficitsfunding gaps. In order to meet this huge financial need, the United States is bound to issue a large number of new onesTreasury bonds, which also makes beautyTreasury bondsThe city has entered its peak period.
AmericanDebtscale andFiscal deficitsIt's all to an alarming degree. U.S. TreasuriesThe total amount is at an all-time high and will need to be replaced in the next yearDebtThe scale is even larger. To make up for itFiscal deficitsUnited States**We had to keep borrowing new debt. This data is surprising and alarming to the United StatesDebtThe situation is worrying.
Although beautifulTreasury bondsIt's so big, but who's buying these bonds?Surprisingly, outside the United StatesInvestmentsis no moreU.S. Treasuriescore buyers. According to data as of September of this year, outside the United StatesInvestmentsHeldU.S. TreasuriesThe balance is only about 23% of the total, which is about 76 trillion dollars. And where Japan is holdingU.S. TreasuriesThe largest number of countries which holdU.S. TreasuriesThe balance reaches 109 trillion dollars. and Chinese mainland holdingsU.S. TreasuriesThe balance fell to $778.1 billion, the lowest in nearly 14 years. In addition, countries such as the United Kingdom, Luxembourg, Belgium, the Cayman Islands, Ireland and other countries also hold a large number ofU.S. Treasuries
BeautyTreasury bondsThe real buyers of business are not what we imagined, and a lot has changed. Previously we always thought foreignInvestmentsPurchasedU.S. Treasuries, but according to the latest data, this is no longer true. ForeignInvestmentsHeldU.S. TreasuriesThe proportion keeps declining, almost reaching a new low. And among them, Japan holdsU.S. TreasuriesThe largest number is held by ChinaU.S. TreasuriesThe number has also dropped significantly. This data is difficult to understand, and it is also trueInternationalInvestmentsCurious about the structural changes.
However, despite the fact that Russia did not appearU.S. Treasuriesthe list of main holders, but they are not completely sold offU.S. Treasuries。Russia still holds tens of millions of dollarsU.S. TreasuriesThe balance seems to remain withU.S. TreasuriesThe connection between them. Surprisingly, thoughUS-RussiaRelations were at a freezing point, and the United States imposed strong sanctions on Russia, but Russia has been in a row for the past two monthsOverweightU.S. Treasuries。According toU.S. Department of CommercePublished data, December 2022, held by RussiaU.S. TreasuriesThe balance fell below the $100 million mark, falling to 6$2.9 billion. And in January of this year, Russia heldU.S. TreasuriesThe balance fell to $67 million, falling below $100 million again. In July, Russia heldU.S. TreasuriesThe balance fell further to $29 million, the lowest point in recent years. However, starting in August, Russia has been slightOverweightU.S. Treasuries, the holding balance expanded to $31 million. And in September, Russia heldU.S. TreasuriesThe balance was even more advanced to $73 million, an increase of 135% sequentially. Among them, long-termU.S. TreasuriesThe balance reached $61 million, short-termU.S. TreasuriesThe balance increased to $12 million from $5 million in the previous month.
Russia's approach is truly surprising. Although Russia did not appearU.S. Treasuriesthe list of main holders, but they did not put in their handsU.S. TreasuriesSell it all. According to the data, thoughUS-RussiaRelations are quite tense, and a series of sanctions have been imposed on both sides, but Russia holdsU.S. TreasuriesThe act does not stop. In fact, Russia has been in a row for the past two monthsOverweightnowU.S. Treasuries。This behavior raises doubts and at the same time arouses interest in Russia's motives. Russia seems to be rightU.S. TreasuriesThere is still a certain level of interest, which is in stark contrast to their relationship with the United States.
There is no official explanation for why Russia has increased its holdings of US bonds for two consecutive months. But we can make a guess based on some clues. One possibility is that Russia is inand the dollar. RelativelyU.S. Treasurieswith a higherLiquidity, which is easier to monetize. Another possibility is that Russia is passingOverweightU.S. TreasuriesSending goodwill to the United States, or responding to American goodwill. We may get a glimpse of this when the United States invited Russia to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' informal meeting. Before the official invitation,US-RussiaThe two countries may have had many private conversations, and Russia's increase in U.S. debt holdings for two months in a row may be a response to the goodwill of the United States.
For RussiaOverweightU.S. TreasuriesThere is no official explanation for the motives at this time. But we can speculate from some clues. One of the possibilities is that Russia is inand the dollar. In contrast,U.S. TreasuriesofLiquidityBetter and easier to trade. Another possibility is that Russia passesOverweightU.S. TreasuriesShowing goodwill to the United States, or responding to American goodwill. We can't help but think,US-RussiaThe two countries may have had several secret contacts before inviting Russia to the informal meeting of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders. Therefore, if Russia takes into accountU.S. TreasuriesHuge numbers of totals,InternationalU.S. TreasuriesThere are not as many major holders as we might think. This data had a certain shock to us, and we started to reconsider who was buyingU.S. Treasuriesand why you should buyU.S. Treasuries
According to the latest data, outside the United StatesInvestmentsHeldU.S. TreasuriesThis represents about 23% of the total. And among them, Japan holdsU.S. TreasuriesThe largest number reached 109 trillion dollars. Holdings in Chinese mainland fell to $778.1 billion, the lowest in the last 14 years. The United Kingdom, Luxembourg, Belgium, the Cayman Islands, Ireland and other countries also hold large quantities ofU.S. Treasuries
Nevertheless, Russia does not appear in the list of the main holders. However, Russia has not completely sold offU.S. Treasuries, still holding a balance of tens of millions of dollars. Surprisingly, over the past two months, Russia has been in a rowOverweightnowU.S. Treasuries。According toU.S. Department of Commercedata held by Russia in December 2022U.S. TreasuriesThe balance was reduced to 6$2.9 billion. In January of this year, that figure fell to $67 million, and further to $29 million. However, starting in August, Russia was again smallerOverweightU.S. Treasuries, the holding balance expanded to $31 million. By September, Russia heldU.S. TreasuriesBalance** to $73 million, up 135% sequentially. Among them, long-termU.S. TreasuriesThe balance reached $61 million, short-termU.S. TreasuriesThe balance increased to $12 million from $5 million in the previous month.
Although there is no official explanation yet, it can be speculated that RussiaOverweightU.S. TreasuriesThe reason for this is that it is inand the dollar. RelativelyU.S. TreasuriesMore hasLiquidity。In addition, it could also be a way for Russia to show goodwill to the United States, sending a positive signal to the United States. This may be related to:US-RussiaFor example, the United States invited Russia to the informal meeting of leaders of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). Before the official invitation,US-RussiaThe two countries may have had several secret contacts, RussiaOverweightU.S. TreasuriesProbably a response to the United States.
It should be noted that this is only speculation, and the real reason is still to be officially explained. In any case, Russia's increase in its holdings of US debt for two consecutive months has attracted interest and attention.