According to Longzhong information, as of December 14, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers this week was 34100,000 tons, down 2600,000 tons, down 708%。Among them, 21 are lightweight stocks160,000 tons, heavy inventory 12940,000 tons. This week, soda ash fell for the fifth consecutive week, increasing by 18 year-on-year86%, the current soda ash manufacturers' inventory returned to the historical low range.
On the evening of December 12, Shengxin Lithium Energy issued an announcement that it would increase the number of soda ash and caustic soda commodity varieties for hedging. According to the announcement, Shengxin Lithium Energy previously held the first meeting of the eighth board of directors on June 15, 2023, and deliberated and approved the "Proposal on Carrying out Commodity Hedging Business", and agreed that the company should carry out the hedging business of lithium salt commodities with a margin amount of no more than RMB 200 million (excluding the physical delivery of the ** subject matter).
According to Guanghua trading, this week, the overall soda ash operating rate was 8504%, up 031%。This week, Shandong Haitian and Hubei Shuanghuan basically recovered, Henan Jinshan soda ash plant was mainly overhauled, Qinghai Salt Lake, Qinghai Development Investment, Qinghai Kunlun soda ash plant continued to run at low yield, and Shaanxi Xinghua soda ash plant has been shut down for maintenance.
Soda ash ** industry chain at a glance].
According to Zheng Shang's research, the position of soda ash in the industrial chain can be roughly shown in the following figure:
From the perspective of the upstream of the industrial chain,Before the existence of industrial production methods, the soda method was used to extract alkali from soda lakes or alkali-containing plant ash. With the progress of industry, there are more technologies involved in the production of synthetic alkali, and the ammonia-alkali method and the combined alkali method are two more popular methods, which involve raw salt, limestone, and synthetic ammonia.
From the perspective of the middle of the industrial chain,Alkali production requires the use of thermal coal, natural gas and other fuels, and the alkali made is divided into light alkali and heavy alkali according to the different densities, and the heavy alkali is processed again after the production of light alkali, and the two present different physical states. The former is less dense and has a white crystalline powder;The latter is denser and has white fine particles, and the two act on different downstream industries.
From the perspective of the downstream of the industrial chain,As one of the important chemical raw materials, soda ash is mainly used in the four major fields of building materials, chemical production, printing and dyeing metallurgy, and food processing, among which light alkali is mainly used in daily soda ash, detergent and food industry, while heavy alkali is mainly used in the production of flat soda ash. In the process of alkali production, ammonium chloride is extracted as a by-product, which is a chemical fertilizer and can also be used in battery manufacturing, electroplating, printing and dyeing, etc.
China is the only country in the world where three methods coexist to produce soda ash. The use of trona method in China accounts for only 61%, mainly concentrated in the natural resource areas of Henan and other places;The chlor-alkali method is used in China for 462%, mainly concentrated in the vicinity of Bohai Bay, near the large salt works and Qinghai area;The use of the alkali method accounts for about 47 in China4%, mainly concentrated in southwest and south China. There are many soda ash enterprises in China, distributed all over the country, and only Jilin, Jiangxi, Guizhou and Hainan provinces do not have soda ash enterprises.
*Market Overview].
As of 15 o'clock on December 14, the main soda ash contract (2405 contract) of Zhengshang Exchange ran at a low level during the day, and finally closed down 228%, closed at 2184 yuan ton.
Soda ash spot market].
According to Guanghua trading, the soda ash market has risen recently, with light alkali in North China at 2800-2950 yuan tons and heavy alkali at 2950-3100 yuan tons2700-2950 yuan of light alkali and 2850-3000 yuan of heavy alkali in central ChinaThe light alkali in the southwest region is 2900-3000 yuan tons, and the heavy alkali is 3100-3200 yuan tonsIn South China, the factory of light alkali is 3100-3200 yuan, and the heavy alkali is 3200-3300 yuan.
Soda base difference analysis].
According to the basis calendar, the basis of today's soda ash contract (2405 contract) is 816 yuan ton, an increase from the previous trading day, and the basis rate is from 262% rose to 272%。
[Institutional Holdings].
The position data of the top 20 ** companies shows that the net position of the main soda ash ** contract is 8,269 hands today, which is in a net long state, an increase from -5,128 hands on the previous trading day. The top 20 longs increased their holdings by 5,578 lots, and the top 20 shorts **6,351 lots. It is worth noting that the top five longs and shorts reduced their positions by a total of 16 lots, of which 844 lots were increased by longs and 860 lots were reduced by shorts.
In-depth interpretation of soda ash ** in the institutional research report].
SDIC Anxin**: The upward drive of the future price is weakened, but it is difficult to have a qualitative improvement (neutral) in the short term
The willingness of the downstream to replenish the reservoir has weakened, and the acceptance of alkali has decreased, and the future price has decreased. Yesterday's spot ** fluctuated little. Henan Jinshan Phase V short stop, Qinghai is still in the process of limiting production, it is not sure when to resume operation, it is difficult to improve the quality in the short term, and it is necessary to see the recovery of Qinghai's production capacity or Yuanxing third-line mass production. In the short term, the willingness of the downstream to replenish the warehouse is reduced, and the upward drive of the futures price is weakened, but it is difficult to have a qualitative improvement in the short term.
Huarong Rongda**: The future supply and demand pattern of soda ash will be completely reversed (neutral).
Analysis of soda ash is inseparable from glass, the current basic pattern is the downward clearing of real estate leads to the decline of flat glass demand, and then the flat glass production line shrinks. However, the real estate completion gap will still appear next year, so the thunder hanging in the sky of glass cold repair, the imagination space above the soda ash is also limited, but at the same time, the increment of photovoltaic is also at the bottom, the demand for heavy alkali is not bad, and the demand side needs to worry about the sluggishness of light alkali. **In terms of soda ash inventory, the current inventory of soda ash is at a relatively low level, but due to the completion of the new production capacity of soda ash and Jinshan, the future soda ash supply and demand pattern has been completely reversed, and it is inevitable to maintain the existing operating rate.
Everbright**: It is expected that the market will be weak
The spot price of soda ash remained stable, and the heavy alkali in North China was currently delivered to 2950 3100 yuan tons. ** The end has declined, in addition to the reduction of devices in East China and Northwest China, the equipment failure of individual enterprises in Henan has driven the overall start of the industry to drop to 8015%。The demand side is still dominated by rigid demand, but the market sentiment has loosened slightly, the feedback of new orders of alkali plants is average, and the waiting volume has declined. In addition, some ** merchants shipped to cash, suppressing the market, but the current soda plant inventory is still low, so the spot ** short-term or difficult to substantiate**. On the whole, there is no obvious pressure on the supply and demand of soda ash in the short term, but the market sentiment has loosened slightly in the past two days.
China Securities Construction Investment**: The fundamentals of soda ash in the short term have not changed much (neutral).
Recently, the soda ash maintenance plan has increased, and the pressure has eased slightly. Last week, there was no change in the cold repair of float glass 1 production line and photovoltaic glass production line. Recently, the sum of the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has increased steadily and slightly, and the demand for heavy alkali is better, while the demand for light alkali has not changed much. From a macro perspective, the recent domestic real estate sales data increased slightly month-on-month, lower than the level of the same period last year;The overall macro of foreign countries is neutral. On the whole, the short-term soda ash fundamentals have not changed much, and the expectation of a rebound has a positive and negative impact.
Hengyin**: Soda ash futures are facing the risk of a high decline (neutral).
From the spot point of view, soda ash ** has continued to operate at a high level in the near future. Due to the good profits of manufacturers, the operating rate has rebounded, but due to the impact of environmental protection and production restrictions in Qinghai and the maintenance of some manufacturers, the output has rebounded slowly, and the inventory of manufacturers continued to fall last week. On the demand side, downstream on-demand procurement, manufacturers mostly implement pre-orders. However, after reaching a high level, the enthusiasm of end users to take the goods is not high, and the situation of new orders is not as good as in the early stage. At the same time, as the weather in the northern region further cools, the downstream demand for glass is still expected to fall, and the negative feedback of the industrial chain may have just started. On the whole, although the current soda ash spot ** is still strong, but under the background of weakening downstream demand and the aggravation of the cautious wait-and-see mentality, the soda ash futures and spot ** are facing the risk of falling from a high level, but the short-term downside space is limited.
Risk factors to focus on in the future].
1.Soda ash stocks;
2.Home sales;
3.Profit of float soda ash production;
4.Soda ash cold repair;
5.The production of downstream emerging industries is less than expected;
6.Macroeconomic policy situation;
7.Inventory-to-consumption ratio;
8.The production and sales rate of soda ash manufacturers, 9Progress of resumption of production of soda ash plant.
Soda ash analysis