Today, most of the soda ash ** contracts ushered in the tide of daily limit, and the center of gravity of the new main 2405 contract increased significantly to around 2280 yuan, and the intraday bulls continued to increase their positions. The short-term domestic soda ash spot ** high is firm, and the manufacturer's inventory continues to go to the warehouse during the week, boosting market confidence, the market bull funds are chasing up, and the long-month contract is aggressively making up for the rise.
Recently, the chemical sector as a whole has shown first-class operation, and the first-class directivity of energy and chemical varieties is not strong. However, the trend of soda ash is maverick, and today's 1-5 contract has completed the month change, and the new main force has made up for the rise sharply, resulting in the occurrence of *** in the afternoon of the day, and the limit has been closed twice. On the same day, the soda ash monthly contracts all touched or closed the daily limit, the performance was unusually strong, the market risk sentiment was abnormally high, and the spot market was strong.
Huawen's investment research team pointed out that due to the impact of environmental protection policies in Northwest China and the short-term load reduction of individual enterprises, it is difficult for the soda ash supply side to rebound substantially in the near futureAt the same time, Yuanxing Line 3 only produces a small number of products after it was put into operation on the 28th of last month, and the changes on the supply side are limited. Despite this, the order support of soda ash enterprises is strong, and downstream users have recently adopted the method of purchasing according to orders and arranging orders to receive goods, resulting in a downward trend in the total inventory of soda ash. With the month change of the 1-5 main contracts, the basis in May is larger, and ** begins to make up for the repair.
The inventory of soda ash has experienced four consecutive declines and returned to a low level. In recent times, the shipment of soda ash enterprises has been smooth, the inventory of enterprises has increased, and the inventory has continued to decline, and it has been destocked for the fourth consecutive week.
According to Longzhong information data, as of December 7, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers this week was 36700,000 tons, down 1350,000 tons, down 355%。Among them, 23 are light stocks510,000 tons, heavy inventory 13190,000 tons. This week, soda ash went to the warehouse for the fourth consecutive week, and the inventory increased by 30% year-on-year56%, which is at a historically low level.
*: Longzhong information.
Today's domestic soda ash spot market is strong**, continuing to be high. The equipment of the alkali plant fluctuated slightly, the Jinshan plant gradually stabilized, the comprehensive operation increased, the pending orders of the enterprise increased, and the inventory was at a low level. Downstream demand does not fluctuate much, and an appropriate amount of procurement is replenished. It is expected that the soda ash market will be stable and strong in the short term.
The spot price of soda ash remained firm, and the demand followed steadily. Under the expectation of the macro positive market in December, the purchasing power of the terminal glass market is still considerable. During the week, the supporting role of alkali orders was obvious, and the glass factory carried out a large number of replenishments, resulting in a trend of spot price increases, and downstream buying orders also followed up. The stable performance of the soda ash market has triggered market attention and positive reactions from investors.
Yuanxing Energy replied to investors on the interactive platform today that the fourth production line of the first phase of the Alxa trona project has a designed soda ash production capacity of 1 million tons per year, and the feeding time cannot be accurately predicted. The company's soda ash products are mainly sold to direct downstream enterprises such as glass factories, and are also sold to intermediate merchants. In addition to the test production line, the company's current production capacity is in full capacity. At present, the company's soda ash list is mainly based on real-time orders. The company sold 550,000 tons of soda ash products in the third quarter, and the selling price was consistent with the selling price trend of the same industry. In addition, the company quoted Genesis Energy as saying that it consumes an average of about 2 tons of soda ash for every 1 ton of lithium carbonate produced.
Yuanxing Energy is the largest enterprise in China that produces soda ash and baking soda by trona, and the company's Alxa trona project is the first.
1. The second production line has reached production, with an average daily output of about 9,000 tons, the third production line has started feeding on November 28, 2023 and has produced a small number of trial products, and the feeding time of the fourth production line will be determined according to the commissioning of the third production line.
Earlier this month, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People's Republic of China released a typical case of disorderly expansion of salt lake resources in Qinghai's Qaidam Basin, naming and informing a number of companies such as disorderly expansion, illegal water intake and grassland encroachment, including Salt Lake Co., Ltd., China Salt Chemical Industry, Zangge Mining and other listed companies.
On the evening of December 4, China Salt Chemical said that it had paid attention to the above-mentioned notice, part of which involved its two soda ash subsidiaries located in Delingha City, Qinghai Province, using ammonia-alkali plants to produce soda ash. At present, Kunlun Alkali Industry and Fatou Alkali Industry have carried out limited production operation according to the requirements of the first class.
Looking forward to the market outlook, the Huawen ** investment research team said that the supply side has not increased significantly in the short term, but the orders of the soda plant are sufficient, and the trend of destocking may continue, so that the spot ** in early December may remain at a high and strong trend. With the gradual official commissioning of Yuanxing Line 3 and the arrival of imported soda ash, the tension may be alleviated to a certain extent. However, as the far month becomes the new main contract in May, the capital game factor will cause uncertainty in the market.
In terms of soda ash downstream, the overall performance of the float glass spot market is acceptable, and the inventory level of some original film factories is not high, and there is an expectation of winter storage replenishment, glass demand is not pessimistic, and the high level of soda ash at the raw material end is also continuing to support glass. Short-term glass *** or ** strong, May contract or relatively stronger.
* Although the profitability of float glass companies has deteriorated, it can continue to boost the production interest of enterprises. This week, glass production fell at a high level, and the decline was not large. According to Longzhong information data, as of December 7, the operating rate of the float glass industry was 8274%, the same as on the 30th;The capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry was 8382%, down 029%。
*: Longzhong information.
The daily output of float glass in the country is 17220,000 tons, down 035%。This week, the national float glass production is 120850,000 tons, down 007%, an increase of 7 year-on-year09%。
*: Longzhong information.
*: Longzhong information.
The company's inventory fell to a low level of more than two years, forming a strong support for glass. As of December 7, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises in China was 328790,000 heavy containers, a new low since the end of September 2021, down 482 month-on-month20,000 heavy boxes or 1279%, a year-on-year decline of 549%, the number of days of discount inventory decreased by 2 days from the previous period to 137 days.
With the expected heating up of macro real estate favorable policies and the continuation of soda ash, glass spot **all the way**. Due to the ** demand in the downstream before the end of the month, the glass inventory has been reduced to a relatively low level. In the short term, the policy is still good expectations, and there is a possibility of increasing the support of real estate policies.