Rise, rise, rise!** Coming to a high position again.
In the last week of this year, the spot market is slightly closer, approaching a record high, and is expected to achieve the annual level in three years.
As of 15:11 Beijing time on December 27, the spot *** was reported at 2065 per ounce$38.
The main factors supporting the international gold price higher are,The data showed that inflationary pressures in the United States eased, which in turn strengthened market expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024.
On Friday, the latest data from the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that the core PCE price index growth rate in November, after the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation target and excluding food and energy, fell back to 32% vs. 35%, less than the market expectation of 33%, the lowest level since April 2021.
Despite the recent hawkish comments from a number of Feds** in an attempt to downplay rate cut expectations, the market is now pricing in a more than 80% chance of a Fed rate cut in March.
Wells Fargo expects trading to remain between $2,100 and $2,200 an ounce in 2024.
According to the World ** Association, in the third quarter of 2023, central banks and other institutions increased their holdings by a total of 3371t, 93% QoQ. The People's Bank of China continued to buy **, and as of the end of November 2023, China's ** reserves reached 2,226 tons, an increase of 12 tons from the previous month (+0.).53%), which has been increased for 13 consecutive months**.
Wan Zhe, a professor at Beijing Normal University and former chief economist of China** Group, said that the central bank is the "weather vane" of the market. In fact, the central bank's continued gold purchases also indicate that the current market risk aversion and tension have not completely eased under the influence of the geopolitical situation.
The latest survey of central bank reserves by the World Association shows that taking into account factors such as inflation, geopolitical events, etc70% of central banks surveyed expect to increase their reserves over the next 12 monthsAnd this trend of central bank purchases is likely to continue for many years.
However, the recent seemingly attractive rate of return** is not a high-quality investment variety in history.
Since the end of the gold standard in 1974 until 2022,** The average annual return is only 50%。In contrast, the average annual return for the world** is 105%, twice as much.
U.S. equities have a higher average annual return of 119%, and even the annualized total return of the US 10-year Treasury bond is higher than **, reaching 67%。
In addition,It's also much more volatile than it seems:Since 1974, the standard deviation has been as high as 190%, much higher than the standard deviation of 150%。